Who knows what effect shared autonomous vehicles will have? Will people still use trains or buses when they can summon a vehicle to their door, at a time of their choosing, which will whisk them to their destination in comfort?
I think it's likely that AVs▸ will increase the demand for car travel, because it will become so much easier. You'll be able to work, sleep, eat, watch TV,... at least once they're functioning reliably!
That's what I'm afraid driverless cars will do.
Probably the largest impact of AVs in the long run will be on freight; lorry drivers and van drivers will be a thing of the past, costs of road haulage will fall due to no longer paying drivers' wages, maintenance costs and associated downtime and insurance premiums are likely to fall, there will be no drivers' hours regs to adhere to, and "platooning" lorries on motorways will make big fuel savings. So railfreight is going to suffer.
Also very worrying...
the total number of car-type vehicles might be reduced, because they will be able to circulate or park somewhere till summoned. They will, or will have the potential to be, more like "taxis" than "cars". Though this will only happen if we're able to break the link between vehicle use and ownership
That is the one and only glimmer of hope; if driverless cars become a taxi service rather than private vehicles they could be integrated into a joined-up public transport system; driverless taxi takes passengers in sparsely-populated areas to their nearest bus route, which takes them to the train if they're making a long journey across Britain. Individual motorised vehicles, even automated ones, are always going to be less energy-efficient for transporting a large number of passengers than a single (electric) bus or train, with electric trains having the further advantage of reduced weight given that they don't need to carry their electricity around with them in heavy batteries.
You assume that the autonomous self driving vehicles would release enough extra capacity on the road network to take away the traffic jams! If they did would it simply fill up with more such vehicles to all traffic came to a halt again?
Automated vehicles will presumably help congestion, but I'd doubt they'll be as space-efficient as public transport. Unfortunately the government don't seem interested in that, they've just announced a ban on petrol and diesel cars (but not buses I believe) and scrapped the most engery-efficient mode of motorised mass transit (electric rail). The result if the bus industry stays with diesel and the rail industry isn't allowed to respond to climate change by electrifying the network will be that public transport loses its environemently-friendly credentials (due to being stuck with diesel). This in turn would allow the government to ban buses and close all diesel-worked rail routes and also justify their ongoing obsession with road building. What a mess.
Also, re-posting the following as Electric train must have missed it (or else I missed the reply):
The sad aspect of this decision, and the much more serious decision about Bristol is that if Network Rail had a 25 year commitment to electrify the whole network, then the costs would be manageable and affordable.
You may be right, but I think that your statement puts more faith in
NR» 's ability than recent evidence supports.
Network Rail has a vision and strategy for 25 years, as asked for by the
DfT» ................. however politicians only have a vision and strategy for 2.5 years that is two and half years after a General Election their only vision and strategy is the next election
Does said 25yr Network Rail strategy include an ongoing rollout of electrification, and if so how detailed is it (ie. does it say which routes they would wire in which order, not necessarily by when)?
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