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Timmer
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« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2011, 07:30:21 » |
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FGW▸ decision to extend (or not) the franchise, assuming they qualify will be known by the end of the year....
If they were to walk away from the GW▸ franchise even though it is their contractural right to do so, would it affect them ever getting another franchise? Must be a risk surely? |
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ChrisB
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2011, 09:13:09 » |
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No, none at all.
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anthony215
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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2011, 12:17:57 » |
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Not really sure, since FGW▸ didnt put in a stupid bid like national express did with th east coast franchise.
FGW do seem to be trying a bit with the franchise, i know they have had a lot of bad points but not all of that can be blamed on the train operator when a lot of fault lies with the DFT▸ .
Apart from the scotrail franchise do first group have any other rail operations?
Maybe if the DFT might be willing to do a deal or something, then again maybe the management at First are getting a bit fed up with all of the problems they have had with the great western franchise.
As for who would be likely to bid if the franchise is put back out:
1.) First
2.) National express
3.) Virgin/stagecoach
4.) DB» /Arriva (Would this be allowed seing as they have the crosscountry and wales franchises?)
5.) Veolia/Transdev (Hope not considering how bad some of their bus operations are.
6.) Govia I know they run the southern & southeastern franchises - anyone know if they are any good
7.) nationlisation - possible but most likely will be the last option
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IndustryInsider
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« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2011, 12:25:39 » |
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Apart from the scotrail franchise do first group have any other rail operations?
First Capital Connect, and First TransPennine are the two other large ones, with First Hull Trains as a little added extra. |
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To view my GWML▸ Electrification cab video 'before and after' video comparison, as well as other videos of the new layout at Reading and 'before and after' comparisons of the Cotswold Line Redoubling scheme, see: http://www.dailymotion.com/user/IndustryInsider/ |
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anthony215
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« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2011, 12:37:57 » |
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Apart from the scotrail franchise do first group have any other rail operations?
First Capital Connect, and First TransPennine are the two other large ones, with First Hull Trains as a little added extra. Thanks i forgot about the hull trains open acess and first capital connect first time i have heard about the First TransPennine franchise |
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Louis94
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« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2011, 13:07:41 » |
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I thought the reason they did not want the extension, was because they would not get any extra money from the government for doing so. So it would be in their best interest to bid again and get the money. |
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Chafford1
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« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2011, 13:48:55 » |
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From today's Guardian / Observer website: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/mar/13/firstgroup-may-abandon-first-great-western-franchise?I seem to recall Roger Ford predicting this in Modern Railways. FirstGroup is considering handing back the ^1.1bn First Great Western rail contract three years ahead of schedule as the economic downturn and delays in the introduction of the new generation of intercity trains threaten the viability of the franchise.
A unique break clause in the transport giant's contract allows it to terminate the franchise in 2013, and save ^826.6m in payments to the government over the following three years. FirstGroup is giving this serious consideration because it is already missing revenue targets as the recession hits demand for services that include the London-to-Swansea and London-to-Oxford lines and routes throughout south-west England.
In a further hindrance to FirstGroup, the business case envisaged a modern fleet of trains generating enough revenue to cover the rapid escalation in fees from 2013 to 2016. But the government confirmed this month that the new intercity trains would arrive from 2016, not 2013 as first thought.
FirstGroup must decide by the year end whether it will continue beyond 2013, but a verdict is expected sooner. "We have to make a decision before the end of the year as to whether we are going to exercise our contractual right to extend the FGW▸ franchise to March 2016," the company said.
It is understood that FirstGroup is not seeking to renegotiate the contract after National Express's attempts to haggle over the ^1.4bn East Coast franchise in 2009 ended in failure. National Express relinquished the loss-making deal, lost its chief executive and narrowly avoided exile from the passenger rail market.
Douglas McNeill, analyst at Charles Stanley Securities, said FirstGroup had a strong case for requesting revised terms because of the intercity delays and likely disruption from the building of the ^16bn Crossrail line, which includes major work at First Great Western's London Paddington terminus. But he added that the Department for Transport would be confident of recouping almost all of the ^800m it would lose from the early termination. "FirstGroup has the moral high ground in seeking revised terms, but since there would be no shortage of interest if the franchise were retendered, the DfT» may feel it holds the whip hand."
The First Great Western contract demands hefty payments ^ more than ^140m this year alone ^ but it is heavily reliant on government support to meet its targets: it received an extra subsidy of ^133m last year.
This will be one of the first major decisions for Tim O'Toole, the former head of London Underground who is FirstGroup's new chief executive. |
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paul7575
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« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2011, 14:22:32 » |
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I'm surprised that the analyst quoted is refering to Crossrail. The franchise contract already covers any possible Crossrail disruption - so stuff like that ought not to sway FGW▸ 's decision. Besides - it really shouldn't affect the ability to run the service into Paddington much as it's nearly all offline work.
Paul
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IndustryInsider
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« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2011, 14:54:46 » |
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Implicating Crossrail could provide a convenient PR▸ excuse though.
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To view my GWML▸ Electrification cab video 'before and after' video comparison, as well as other videos of the new layout at Reading and 'before and after' comparisons of the Cotswold Line Redoubling scheme, see: http://www.dailymotion.com/user/IndustryInsider/ |
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XPT
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« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2011, 15:39:28 » |
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It will be a very interesting period in the next few years or so then, especially if a new operator takes over in 2013. New operator, new liveries, possibly big changes to the timetables. Then the electrification and new IEP▸ trains in 2016. Very interesting.
I wonder who will take over then, should First Great Western call it a day. National Express, to become National Express Great Western?
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paul7575
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2011, 16:13:54 » |
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...possibly big changes to the timetables. Then the electrification and new IEP▸ trains in 2016...
New timetables at franchise change have been the exception over the last few years. Most change's have happened after a couple of years of the new operator, so I think anything significant happening prior to IEP arriving is very unlikely. Paul |
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Brucey
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« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2011, 16:35:11 » |
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6.) Govia I know they run the southern & southeastern franchises - anyone know if they are any good No, they aren't particularly good. I can only speak about Southern, who I believe are having many of the problems we saw with FGW▸ a few years back. These include terminating trains short/missing out multiple stops at the sign of any trouble anywhere, busy trains and poor service by some/most staff. There is also a hugely complicated array of fares available (e.g. Super Group, GroupSave, Downlander, DaySave, Unizone, SN only, Advance). And a very bad attitude if tickets go missing in the post. |
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Electric train
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« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2011, 16:41:56 » |
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Could be a little bit of saber rattling by FGW▸ to get the amount of money reduced; ORR» may not be keen to take control of another TOC▸
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Starship just experienced what we call a rapid unscheduled disassembly, or a RUD, during ascent,”
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ChrisB
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« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2011, 16:44:27 » |
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New franchisees get a year or so to settle into their contract. The DfT» has previously micro-managed new franchises & specified timetables. They did it with FGW▸ too... That was the cause of the problems when tjos version of FGW took over in that there were too many customers for the trains specified hence the overcrowding
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