I've just had a quick look through the RailForums discussion and downloaded the draft timetable. Some comments - from a quick(ish) scan, so I might have missed some details...
Is there a separate source confirming the loss of the Pyle stop? That table doesn't show Pyle anyway, and the timings of both the 0704 and 0745 between
PTA▸ and BGN are sufficient to allow for a stop at Pyle.
But even if the 0704 does stop at Pyle, the service is much less useful than it used to be: the first train of the day is now 20 minutes later; it's not far behind the 0709 anyway (assume it's not changed); and it's no longer of any use for those who need an 8am start in Cardiff.
It would appear that rationale behind the general changes on the Marches is to make the overall service more even, with a regular interval of abotu 45 minute, compared to the current 30-30-60 pattern, with the added benefit of some Manchester services being a bit faster. The more even pattern (mainly going up) and re-allocation of stops might be beneficical in terms of balancing the load. Not so useful for Leominster, Craven Arms and Church Stretton passengers, who now have a 30-90ish pattern of service interval (they had an erratic 2-hourly service pre-
SPT▸ - a partial step back, but a bit better than it was back then). I haven't looked at the other issue that always comes up when Marches retimings are on the cards: how well the new pattern connects with London trains at Newport.
The Manchester services are a bit quicker every 2 hours, but on the up line passengers west of Cardiff usually don't benefit, except on the 0600 from CMN; the others just sit at Cardiff until the later departure time. I'm not entirely against that, as it retains the consistent pattern between
SWA» and
CDF» , but it's worth noting that Swansea-Manchester passengers don't usually benefit.
Assuming no change on
FGW▸ , those xx:38ish departures from Cardiff going west don't look good. That's about 10 minutes before the
HST▸ . When a HST is delayed (or retimed when diverted) the
DMU▸ suffers! (Try the 2-car 1804 and 1904 when the preceding HST is late!) Going by the times at Bridgend and further west, the 1604 and 1704 are going to run as now, albeit with longer waits at Cardiff, particularly in the case of the 1604.
The 1804 from Cardiff now appears to be leaving around 1738! It looks very slow between BGN and PTA (even allowing for a possible Pyle stop), but is too quick to make any other Swanline stops. So I wonder what will happen to the 1738. If it relieves it, that's good, but there's no time to run the 1738 later as it will hold up the HST at 1748. Perhaps it will run after the HST, which will be good for the HST, but not so good for any Swanline passengers who finish work aroudn 5 but can't make the 1704! It does fill in the following Swanline gap a bit, though, and could be a better use of overall capacity. The 1804 already fills the gap for Pyle, so if it's leaving earlier, that gap is re-created unless the 1738 is running later.
Re that extra time between BGN and PTA on the 1804 (as was): I was wondering if it woudl be looped around Margam, but it's not held up for long enough to go behind the HST, and not slow enough between PTA & SWA to warrant being looped.
Those xx:36 departures from CDF appear to leave SWA at the current times, meaning they would still connect with the London trains, but at the expense of through journey times. CDF-CMN passengers, who currently benefit from an hourly through service that is usually reasonably quick, lose out.
I wonder what will happen to the peak Swanlines. It looks like the 1738 will run later, but what about the 0709? The 0550 CMN-MCR appears to be moved to 0600, which means it's moved closer to the 0616 CMN-Swanline-CDF. Perhaps that's a sign that they'll be merged between CMN and SWA (can't be too busy that early). In which case... will the 0709 run at a different time, or will it just be
ECS▸ to SWA from somewhere?
Another interesting thing... the 1704 from CDF says 'Tenby' in the 'To' row. So an improved through service there (more or less something I've suggested in the past
). To speculate on the destination being Tenby: perhaps it swaps with the Sprinter it crosses there, in order to give the 175 something useful to do, and to keep the Sprinter on the local diagram (which ends up going to Fishguard &
HoW‡ IIRC▸ ).