Crossrail/Elizabeth Line. From construction to operation - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[stuving]

This is not an increase in the projected cost - for once. The last time the estimated cost to completion rose was in August, when adding Covid-19 the the previous figures (updated) was reported as an extra ?450M. Negotiations between TfL^» (Transport for London - about) and DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) on who will pay and when have not got far - and of course TfL and London are broke. This is all in a paper from the last TfL board meeting (20th October):

8 Funding Position and Financial Implications

8.1 On 7 December 2018, a Chair?s Action paper entitled ?Crossrail Update? was approved, giving an increase to Crossrail funding of ?2.15bn to an overall financial envelope of ?14.964bn (excluding Network Rail costs), reflecting the need for additional funding announced by CRL in the summer of 2018. This funding was negotiated with Government and included a ?750m loan facility between TfL and the Secretary of State, along with a GLA grant to TfL of ?1.4bn.

8.2 In November 2019, CRL announced that additional funding over and above the ?2.15bn funding package would be required to complete the project. At that time, an estimate of additional funding, at differing levels of probability, of between ?400m and ?650m was provided by CRL. Funding discussions with government on how to resolve this funding gap took place during the following months, but progress with government remained slow. Once the Covid-19 crisis began, the focus of funding discussions with government shifted to immediate issues related to TfL?s wider financial position and it was acknowledged by all parties that Crossrail funding would be dealt with at a later point as part of the H2 negotiations, when the impact of Covid-19 on CRL?s funding requirement was better understood.

8.3 On 21 August 2020, CRL announced that the previously stated funding gap of between ?400m and ?650m had increased, on an emerging basis, to up to ?1.1bn.

8.4 CRL has not yet fully utilised the current ?2.15bn funding package in cash terms and this is expected to be exhausted in March 2021. However, the full amount of the existing funding package is anticipated to be fully committed by mid-October 2020. At this point, if funding discussions are not concluded, CRL will be unable to make any further financial commitments.

8.5 TfL and the GLA are working through potential funding proposals that seek to close this gap. Government has consistently stated that ?London should pay?, irrespective of the fact that the majority of the economic benefit of the project flows to the exchequer. However, the options for London based funding are extremely limited, even more so post-Covid-19, and are inherently interdependent on both TfL and the GLA?s wider financial position, which have suffered substantial adverse impacts as a result of Covid-19. These discussions will remain ongoing as part of wider funding discussions with government and will be progressed in parallel to the governance transition.

There is also a lot about structural changes - not to the tunnels, this is "governance": moving the board chairs on a sinking ship.

[Electric train]

This is not an increase in the projected cost - for once. The last time the estimated cost to completion rose was in August, when adding Covid-19 the the previous figures (updated) was reported as an extra ?450M. Negotiations between TfL^» (Transport for London - about) and DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) on who will pay and when have not got far - and of course TfL and London are broke. This is all in a paper from the last TfL board meeting (20th October):

8 Funding Position and Financial Implications

8.1 On 7 December 2018, a Chair?s Action paper entitled ?Crossrail Update? was approved, giving an increase to Crossrail funding of ?2.15bn to an overall financial envelope of ?14.964bn (excluding Network Rail costs), reflecting the need for additional funding announced by CRL in the summer of 2018. This funding was negotiated with Government and included a ?750m loan facility between TfL and the Secretary of State, along with a GLA grant to TfL of ?1.4bn.

8.2 In November 2019, CRL announced that additional funding over and above the ?2.15bn funding package would be required to complete the project. At that time, an estimate of additional funding, at differing levels of probability, of between ?400m and ?650m was provided by CRL. Funding discussions with government on how to resolve this funding gap took place during the following months, but progress with government remained slow. Once the Covid-19 crisis began, the focus of funding discussions with government shifted to immediate issues related to TfL?s wider financial position and it was acknowledged by all parties that Crossrail funding would be dealt with at a later point as part of the H2 negotiations, when the impact of Covid-19 on CRL?s funding requirement was better understood.

8.3 On 21 August 2020, CRL announced that the previously stated funding gap of between ?400m and ?650m had increased, on an emerging basis, to up to ?1.1bn.

8.4 CRL has not yet fully utilised the current ?2.15bn funding package in cash terms and this is expected to be exhausted in March 2021. However, the full amount of the existing funding package is anticipated to be fully committed by mid-October 2020. At this point, if funding discussions are not concluded, CRL will be unable to make any further financial commitments.

8.5 TfL and the GLA are working through potential funding proposals that seek to close this gap. Government has consistently stated that ?London should pay?, irrespective of the fact that the majority of the economic benefit of the project flows to the exchequer. However, the options for London based funding are extremely limited, even more so post-Covid-19, and are inherently interdependent on both TfL and the GLA?s wider financial position, which have suffered substantial adverse impacts as a result of Covid-19. These discussions will remain ongoing as part of wider funding discussions with government and will be progressed in parallel to the governance transition.

There is also a lot about structural changes - not to the tunnels, this is "governance": moving the board chairs on a sinking ship.

And no doubt some cats will get chubbier and as the violin plays "Nearer My God to Thee"

[ellendune]

Given the government's stated ambition is to end the imbalance of investment towards London and South East this is politically difficult for them even before you add the politics of a Labour Mayor and a very Conservative government and a mayoral election in May.

[grahame]

From Sky News

Crossrail, London's long-delayed ?19bn east-to-west rail link, faces being "mothballed" without the release of urgent new government funding, the capital's transport chief has warned ministers.

From New Civil Engineer

The ?19bn Crossrail project received a major boost today (25 November) as the government committed to financing the completion of the scheme.

The project has been beset by a series of delays and cost overruns, raising concerns over its delivery.

The decision to finance the completion of the project was confirmed in the government?s National Infrastructure Strategy, which insists levelling up the rest of the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) should not mean levelling London down.

[Electric train]

From Sky News

Crossrail, London's long-delayed ?19bn east-to-west rail link, faces being "mothballed" without the release of urgent new government funding, the capital's transport chief has warned ministers.

From New Civil Engineer

The ?19bn Crossrail project received a major boost today (25 November) as the government committed to financing the completion of the scheme.

The project has been beset by a series of delays and cost overruns, raising concerns over its delivery.

The decision to finance the completion of the project was confirmed in the government?s National Infrastructure Strategy, which insists levelling up the rest of the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) should not mean levelling London down.

It worth noting that the trains were built in Derby, the electrical traction power control system for the central section and the CIS^▸ (Customer Information System) for the whole line designed and equipment built in Ashby de la Zouch (an no that's not Belgum) and Manchester, the rail from Scunthorpe etc many of the workforce constructing it are from all over the UK.

By not completing it could have a bigger effect on the economy than the funding

[TonyK]

It's also a good result for TfL^» (Transport for London - about) and the Mayor of London. Somebody else is paying.

[TaplowGreen]

It's also a good result for TfL^» (Transport for London - about) and the Mayor of London. Somebody else is paying.

Isn't that always the case?

[REVUpminster]

I think the government will just throw money at it till it's done and open before the next General Election as it does pass through Tory heartlands.

it is just a glorified relief line for the central Central Line and stations such as Stratford, Liverpool Street and Paddington.

The only new area served is Abbey Wood which originally was to be served by a branch from the Jubilee Line at North Greenwich for which the junction was built at time of construction.

[grahame]

I think the government will just throw money at it till it's done and open before the next General Election as it does pass through Tory heartlands.

it is just a glorified relief line for the central Central Line and stations such as Stratford, Liverpool Street and Paddington. ...

I'm going to question "just" - are they not also using their purse of money as a lever to force their political agenda and controls over the cash-strapped Transport for London? 

Were you questioning when/whether the Central Line actually needs relief at the moment?  Perhaps it could me more than that with long distance cross London trains.  Norwich to Plymouth, Swansea to Brussels or Sandwich to Weston-super-Mare?  HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) brings Birmingham to Paris.

[REVUpminster]

Crossrail like the Central Line before at the outer ends is just a takeover of existing BR^▸ (British Rail(ways)) lines. The Central took over the Epping line with some new build via Gants Hill then taking over more BR lines to Hainault that came from Ilford. West Ruislip was similar.

If Birmingham to London with HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) in half an hour then Paris does become a real possibility. But who remembers the Nightstars languishing in Long Marston for the proposed sleeper service from Scotland to Paris; eventually being sold to Italian Railways.

After covid air travel will return to normal very quickly. Look how many went abroad (500,000) as soon as the first lockdown ended and probably brought back the second wave from "safe" countries such as Spain and Greece.

The Christmas break is expected to bring a third wave just from locals. The government probably knows this from advanced bookings on various modes of transport.

[Electric train]

I think the government will just throw money at it till it's done and open before the next General Election as it does pass through Tory heartlands.

it is just a glorified relief line for the central Central Line and stations such as Stratford, Liverpool Street and Paddington.

The only new area served is Abbey Wood which originally was to be served by a branch from the Jubilee Line at North Greenwich for which the junction was built at time of construction.

There is an Election soon, May 21 the deferred Mayor for London, BoJo desperately wants the tories to win it back from Labour.

It actually more a relief for the Jubilee Line, Bakerloo (Pad - Baker St) in the west, in the east takes the pressure again off of the Jubilee and the GE services into Liverpool St.

Passenger numbers may never return to the plus 7% year on year growth the railways in London and the SE had seen in the last 15 years, however within a couple of years passengers numbers will return, because we humans like to travel and meet people.

[ellendune]

Passenger numbers may never return to the plus 7% year on year growth the railways in London and the SE had seen in the last 15 years, however within a couple of years passengers numbers will return, because we humans like to travel and meet people.

I am not so sure London commuter traffic will return to the same levels. Companies have started to realise that they can do more with electronic communications than they thought and so the very large and expensive London office starts to look less like value for money.

The 1960's and 70's saw many companies move their head offices out of London to replicate these as large centralised offices in other parts of the country (often in places like Reading - so not so far from London).  I don't see this as a model either. I don't think many companies will abandon offices all together but a mix of a network of smaller offices distributed around the country with more home working and electronic communications seems to me to be the future. 

The company I now work for has a Head Office in Cheshire (so not costing central London prices), but has many offices around the country (including the one I don't work in at the moment) a recent senior Head Office job was advertised internally as "location flexible" the the external advert said based in Cheshire. 

[rogerw]

Announced yesterday that a ?825M funding package has been agreed to enable completion. The funding package will be split into a ?500M loan with a fixed repayment profile and a ?325M loan that will be repaid subject to MCIL^» (Mayor's Community Infrastructure Levy - about) and BRS^▸ (Business Rates Supplement) revenues going forward. Ultimately this means that Londoners will foot the bill.

[Reginald25]

Always seems to me that the real benefit of Crossrail to the underground network is relief on the sub-surface section east of Paddington where three routes share the same tracks to Aldgate.

[TonyK]

Whatever to pros and cons of Crossrail, however the pandemic pans out, and whoever wins the mayoral election, Crossrail will get finished one day. There is simply not enough capacity to shift everyone from A to B across London, as well as into and out of the capital from its dormitories. It may be that with office workers taking up residence in the study permanently, banks fleeing to the continent to escape Brexit, Oxford Street becoming a row of high class charity shops and all the supporting cast of newsagents, coffee shops and the like going to the wall, that London will be a lot less busy. Personally, I wouldn't bet on it long term, and if you look back to when Crossrail was first proposed, you can see that it is very much a long-term job. Whether it connects Birmingham to the City, replaces or augments some underground lines or lets city workers live in Reading and have a one-train journey to work isn't really relevant. What matters is that more people can get around more easily, new through routes are possibly, and the pressure is eased on the rest of the network. Politics or no politics, it will have whatever money it needs to get finished.