Crossrail/Elizabeth Line. From construction to operation - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[onthecushions]

A full cab video has now appeared here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yZZqR6qiVE

Was it running wrong line?

OTC

[martyjon]

A full cab video has now appeared here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yZZqR6qiVE

Was it running wrong line?

OTC

Either that or videoed from the rear cab and the footage reversed.   

[Lee]

Transport for London has again been accused of hiding problems on Crossrail from London mayor Sadiq Khan - https://www.building.co.uk/news/tfl-boss-accused-of-hiding-crossrail-problems-from-london-mayor-/5098442.article

[grahame]

From The Evening Standard

Not a single new Crossrail station complete and train testing on hold

None of the nine new Crossrail stations are complete and testing of the £1 billion fleet of trains in tunnels has been “paused” due to technical issues, it has been revealed.

Crossrail chief executive Mark Wild said he faced a “massive issue” getting stations finished by the end of the summer — which is key to being able to open the delayed line next year.

All stations should have been completed by 2016 but construction issues are among a multitude of reasons why opening has been delayed by more than a year, causing costs to soar by £2 billion to £17.6 billion.

[etc]

[SandTEngineer]

Oh dear, the (non) Blame game has started.....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-47787367

Its too long to fully quote here but here is a sample:

'Warning signs ignored'

A report by the Commons' Public Accounts Committee found an "unacceptably laissez-faire" attitude to project costs from the overlapping organisations.

The DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) and Crossrail Ltd "are unable to fully explain how the programme has been allowed to unravel," the report found.

All three bodies were "unwilling to pinpoint responsibility to a single individual or entity", the committee said.

So where were all those highly paid Project Management and Programme Control Managers then...…?

[Electric train]

Oh dear, the (non) Blame game has started.....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-47787367

Its too long to fully quote here but here is a sample:

'Warning signs ignored'

A report by the Commons' Public Accounts Committee found an "unacceptably laissez-faire" attitude to project costs from the overlapping organisations.

The DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) and Crossrail Ltd "are unable to fully explain how the programme has been allowed to unravel," the report found.

All three bodies were "unwilling to pinpoint responsibility to a single individual or entity", the committee said.

So where were all those highly paid Project Management and Programme Control Managers then...…?

errrrrrrrrrrrrrr HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) ………………………. 

If only i was joking quite a large number have got jobs there

[grahame]

We now have schedule for when we're going to be given the new schedule - though the latter is just marked "possible".

A POSSIBLE opening date for Crossrail under central London could be announced by the end of the month, according to chief executive Mark Wild.

However, he is warning that progress continues to be hampered by several problems, including a shortage of skills among contractors as well as software issues and a safety-critical failure which has caused close-headway tests in the tunnels between Paddington and Liverpool Street to be postponed from 18 March until after Easter.

Mr Wild has been spelling out the causes of the continuing delay in a letter to London Assembly transport committee chair Caroline Pidgeon, but he has not revealed what the safety-critical failure was.

He wrote: ‘We remain committed to being able to provide an opening window – the Earliest Opening Programme – in April.

From Rail News - headlined

Complexity and skills shortage still hampering Crossrail

[Lee]

Satellite radar reveals Crossrail tunnels under London - https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2019/04/16/satellite-radar-reveals-crossrail-tunnels-under-london/

More than 6,000 people still working on Crossrail - https://www.building.co.uk/news/more-than-6000-people-still-working-on-crossrail/5099016.article

[grahame]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)

Crossrail 'could be delayed until 2021'

... The source said, with the current state of the project in mind, a "best case scenario" would be the new Elizabeth Line opening in spring 2020.

A "middle probability case" would be the summer of next year.

"A worst case is the spring of 2021." ...

[TaplowGreen]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)

Crossrail 'could be delayed until 2021'

... The source said, with the current state of the project in mind, a "best case scenario" would be the new Elizabeth Line opening in spring 2020.

A "middle probability case" would be the summer of next year.

"A worst case is the spring of 2021." ...

The general rule when a rail project is announced - stick a finger in the air, add several years and several billion to the forecast and you may get somewhere close...…..

[grahame]

From the Daily Mail

More than 50 new Crossrail trains are sitting idle in a north-west London depot

The trains should have been up and running by now on the new Elizabeth line

Just 15 of 70 new trains are being used for existing, limited, Crossrail services

Crossrail bosses have warned the wait could be another two years until 2021 

No great surprise ... and I don't know what the cost of leasing a modern electric coach in a 7 car train is these days, but I do remember a figure of around £140k per annum for a 15 year old diesel multiple unit carriage, from early in this decade.   Using those figure.   55 * 7 * 140000 * 2 = £107,800,000 over 2 years.  I see a note they're being extended to 9 carriages ... which would put that figure up to £138,600,000.    I'm not terribly sure who owns them, nor who took the risk on being able to have them earn money ... but what could you buy for £138 million?

* A 4 platform station at Wilton - £19 million
* A 2 platform station at Pilning Westgate - £7 million
* A 2 platform station at Aztec West with the engineering issues sorted - £14 million
* 30 years salary for a Community Rail officer for Heart of Wessex - £1.3 million
* Two dynamic loops between Thingley Junction and Bradford Junction - £28 million
... wait - I have only spent a half of the money so far ...
* A new station at Devizes Parkway - £12 million
* Catch up on engineering between Taunton and Minhead and seed commuter and winter service, 3 years - £6 million
* Engineering works and seed passenger service to Fawley via Marchwood,Hounsdown, Hythe - £22 million
* Seeding an extension of the service via Westbury to Swindon up to Oxford hourly - £2 million
* Seeding to extend the hourly Paddington - Bedwyn service to Exeter in place of the 2 hourly semifast - £3 million
* 4th platform at Westbury - £6 million (can't quite believe that figure!)
* Extend Bristol MetroWest to Frome (every half hour) and Yeovil (every hour) - seeding - £2 million
* Link Swindon-Westbury, Westbury - Salisbury and Salisbury - Romsey - Eastleigh = SOU - Fawley - £1 million

And I make it that I've still got £10 million contingency left there.

£138 million may sound like a figure that's so big it's hard to take in, but when you look at all these projects that could be done for that su, you start to appreciate the true cost - in lease charge losses alone - of the Crossrail delay.

[TaplowGreen]

From the Daily Mail

More than 50 new Crossrail trains are sitting idle in a north-west London depot

The trains should have been up and running by now on the new Elizabeth line

Just 15 of 70 new trains are being used for existing, limited, Crossrail services

Crossrail bosses have warned the wait could be another two years until 2021 

No great surprise ... and I don't know what the cost of leasing a modern electric coach in a 7 car train is these days, but I do remember a figure of around £140k per annum for a 15 year old diesel multiple unit carriage, from early in this decade.   Using those figure.   55 * 7 * 140000 * 2 = £107,800,000 over 2 years.  I see a note they're being extended to 9 carriages ... which would put that figure up to £138,600,000.    I'm not terribly sure who owns them, nor who took the risk on being able to have them earn money ... but what could you buy for £138 million?

* A 4 platform station at Wilton - £19 million
* A 2 platform station at Pilning Westgate - £7 million
* A 2 platform station at Aztec West with the engineering issues sorted - £14 million
* 30 years salary for a Community Rail officer for Heart of Wessex - £1.3 million
* Two dynamic loops between Thingley Junction and Bradford Junction - £28 million
... wait - I have only spent a half of the money so far ...
* A new station at Devizes Parkway - £12 million
* Catch up on engineering between Taunton and Minhead and seed commuter and winter service, 3 years - £6 million
* Engineering works and seed passenger service to Fawley via Marchwood,Hounsdown, Hythe - £22 million
* Seeding an extension of the service via Westbury to Swindon up to Oxford hourly - £2 million
* Seeding to extend the hourly Paddington - Bedwyn service to Exeter in place of the 2 hourly semifast - £3 million
* 4th platform at Westbury - £6 million (can't quite believe that figure!)
* Extend Bristol MetroWest to Frome (every half hour) and Yeovil (every hour) - seeding - £2 million
* Link Swindon-Westbury, Westbury - Salisbury and Salisbury - Romsey - Eastleigh = SOU - Fawley - £1 million

And I make it that I've still got £10 million contingency left there.

£138 million may sound like a figure that's so big it's hard to take in, but when you look at all these projects that could be done for that su, you start to appreciate the true cost - in lease charge losses alone - of the Crossrail delay.

Probably fair to say that being rail related, all those infrastructure projects would be massively delayed and overspent too, so your contingency probably needs another zero! 

[Lee]

From the Daily Mail

More than 50 new Crossrail trains are sitting idle in a north-west London depot

The trains should have been up and running by now on the new Elizabeth line

Just 15 of 70 new trains are being used for existing, limited, Crossrail services

Crossrail bosses have warned the wait could be another two years until 2021 

No great surprise ... and I don't know what the cost of leasing a modern electric coach in a 7 car train is these days, but I do remember a figure of around £140k per annum for a 15 year old diesel multiple unit carriage, from early in this decade.   Using those figure.   55 * 7 * 140000 * 2 = £107,800,000 over 2 years.  I see a note they're being extended to 9 carriages ... which would put that figure up to £138,600,000.    I'm not terribly sure who owns them, nor who took the risk on being able to have them earn money ... but what could you buy for £138 million?

* A 4 platform station at Wilton - £19 million
* A 2 platform station at Pilning Westgate - £7 million
* A 2 platform station at Aztec West with the engineering issues sorted - £14 million
* 30 years salary for a Community Rail officer for Heart of Wessex - £1.3 million
* Two dynamic loops between Thingley Junction and Bradford Junction - £28 million
... wait - I have only spent a half of the money so far ...
* A new station at Devizes Parkway - £12 million
* Catch up on engineering between Taunton and Minhead and seed commuter and winter service, 3 years - £6 million
* Engineering works and seed passenger service to Fawley via Marchwood,Hounsdown, Hythe - £22 million
* Seeding an extension of the service via Westbury to Swindon up to Oxford hourly - £2 million
* Seeding to extend the hourly Paddington - Bedwyn service to Exeter in place of the 2 hourly semifast - £3 million
* 4th platform at Westbury - £6 million (can't quite believe that figure!)
* Extend Bristol MetroWest to Frome (every half hour) and Yeovil (every hour) - seeding - £2 million
* Link Swindon-Westbury, Westbury - Salisbury and Salisbury - Romsey - Eastleigh = SOU - Fawley - £1 million

And I make it that I've still got £10 million contingency left there.

£138 million may sound like a figure that's so big it's hard to take in, but when you look at all these projects that could be done for that su, you start to appreciate the true cost - in lease charge losses alone - of the Crossrail delay.

Probably fair to say that being rail related, all those infrastructure projects would be massively delayed and overspent too, so your contingency probably needs another zero! 

If I were a DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) Civil Servant (like that's going to happen anytime in the next millennium) in charge of allocating such sums of money to such projects, then I would make it clear that was the limit of my contribution, and as they (local authorities, TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company), Network Rail etc) are the scheme promoters, my funding would be dependent on them managing their projects effectively and making sure they had enough in reserve to cover any delays or cost overruns.

They would still most likely bite my hand off, which would mean that if they get built, my department would get most of the credit for providing most of the funding, and if they didnt get built, then they would get the blame for not managing their project properly.

Winner, Winner, DfT Chicken Dinner.

[Electric train]

The problem with Crossrail is it has been a London Mayor political jewel, irrespective of the rosette colour at each mayoral election the incumbent would never want Crossrail to appear to be failing; indeed the previous incumbent renamed it to the Elizabeth line , whilst I am a great admirer of the HM the Queen the renaming was more about a political ambition by a certain individual.
DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) have not had the full control over Crossrail as it is a TfL^» (Transport for London - about) project hence more accountable to the London Assembly than Parliament   

[grahame]

The problem with Crossrail is it has been a London Mayor political jewel, irrespective of the rosette colour at each mayoral election the incumbent would never want Crossrail to appear to be failing; indeed the previous incumbent renamed it to the Elizabeth line , whilst I am a great admirer of the HM the Queen the renaming was more about a political ambition by a certain individual.

"Don't tell the mayor" ... The Guardian and multiple other sources this morning

Transport for London’s commissioner should consider his position over his handling of the much-delayed Crossrail project, according to a damning City Hall report.

The London assembly transport committee accuses Mike Brown of downplaying risks about the £17.6bn flagship infrastructure scheme in weekly updates to the capital’s mayor, Sadiq Khan.