GW franchise

[whole diary]

[Zoe]

I know we are a few years off from the end of the franchise but the reality of the situation is that First own power cars and if they didn't win the franchise they could refuse to let the new franchisee have access to them.  The result of this is that First are likely to retain the Greater Western franchise indefinitely.  Is this fair?  There seems little point in having it refranchised if First are certain to win.

[JayMac]

I'm sure any future 'Invitation to Tender' will take account of the rolling stock available. But it does make the service provision decisions a little more difficult, because, as it stands, any new franchisee will struggle to offer the same service as FGW^▸ (First Great Western) currently do without those extra power cars.

A bit of a headache for the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about), and I agree, it's a very strong bargaining chip for FGW.

[Chris from Nailsea]

Hmm. 
 
Well, in view of the determination of previous governments to interfere with the running of the railways, and the Department for Transport's fixation with 'micromanaging' them, in terms of setting franchise requirements - is it any wonder that certain TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) have acted to protect their own interests?

[Bob_Blakey]

Surely, in the event that First Group failed to 'win' the new franchise, they would turn themselves into a mini-ROSCO^» (Rolling Stock Owning Company - about) and offer the power cars to the new franchisee under some sort of leasing arrangement; it seems unlikely that any commercial organisation would allow valuable assets to lie around rusting not earning revenue.

Unless of course there is some DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) / ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) rule which would prevent this!?! 

[ChrisB]

The HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) will be almost life-expired if FGW^▸ (First Great Western) win their franchise....

[eightf48544]

The HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) will be almost life-expired if FGW^▸ (First Great Western) win their franchise....

There is an interesting article in Modern railways this month called Stargate 2025 where a "Time Traveller" finds himself in a 23 metre coach weighing just 32 tonnes with seats lined up with the windows low seat backs powered, travelling to Aberdeen. At present with two diesel locos but easily substituted for an electric loco and a seated DVT^‡(resolve) when the wires are slung. Apparently it's 5 minuteds quicker than the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) time for teh journey.

Allegedly called HST20 by Captain Deltic.

I can guess who the author is, a well known advocate of hauled stock with loco changes at the end of the wires.

HSTs Life Expired?

[XPT]

I can see FGW^▸ (First Great Western) winning the franchise yet again in 2013.  I think FGW will just go on forever, at least during our lifetime anyway.

I'm looking forward to May 2013 to see if another operator takes over.  It will be a refreshing change.  But I think I'll be dissapointed.

[ChrisB]

I reckon they'll get their 3-year extension now - to 2016.....

[grahame]

The headlines on the franchise were that First are paying the government 1.1 billion pounds over the life of the perhaps-extended franchise, but the small print shows that the heaviest three payments are actually made in the final three years - as far as I recall, the net payment over the first seven years is/was 200k, and then 900k for the final three years.

On that basis, with the economy not as bright as it was in 2005, the decision First have to make may be far from obvious, and the fact that they own some of their own rolling stock might leave them in a position of some strength.  We might also expect to see (and indeed we are already seeing) some short-termism in the company's stance on certain things on the basis that the payback for any investment they make now needs to be very fast.

[ChrisB]

Which indicates that they'll apply for the extension, assuming that they are currently turning a profit, which I believe they are.

[Super Guard]

Which indicates that they'll apply for the extension, assuming that they are currently turning a profit, which I believe they are.

Can you confirm a source for the GW^▸ (Great Western) franchise itself making a profit for First?

[ChrisB]

Press articles at the time of their last published results.

[inspector_blakey]

Devil's advocate here, but is there any point at all in speculating this far ahead of time? ChrisB I would agree with you, think it's a fairly safe bet that the franchise will be extended to its full 10-year duration to 2016 barring some sudden and dramatic plunge in performance. That means that it will be a good 4 years or more before anyone even thinks about re-letting the franchise, and who knows what the financial or political climates will be like then. Let's be honest, we don't even really know if the franchising regime will continue in the same way it currently has.

So isn't this all something of a waste of time?

XPT, on what basis do you think First will have the franchise forever and why would that disappoint you? Do you really think that any of the other big companies like National Express or Stagecoach would be better in charge? Whoever ends up running the franchise can only work with the cards they are dealt by the government under the current system, which for FGW^▸ (First Great Western) weren't that great - an ageing fleet that's not really big enough for the job, and the promise of new trains snatched away from them.

[ChrisB]

Let's be honest, we don't even really know if the franchising regime will continue in the same way it currently has.

Hmmm, I'm on a focus group at the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) tomorrow afternoon giving the public view on whatever they outline....

[inspector_blakey]

Would be interesting to hear some of the detail from that meeting, assuming it's not confidential!