Couple of comments to add to the mix (not sure which way they'll take the discussion) ...
1. Under "Cap and collar", I understand that 80% of extra farebox income goes to the government at present; from comments I've heard, it's sounded rather as if that's expected to be the case for quite a while (although it could just be a bargaining tactic by parties looking for increased income from subsidy). So if you put a fare of 3.50 up to 4.50, the
TOC▸ will only get an extra 20p; the other 80p does not go to the local council to reduce the subsidy - it goes to Whitehall. There is some discussion as to whether this 80% applies to extra services beyond the franchise base, what's regarded as extra service, and how you tell which tickets were sold for which service.
2. I would be very interested indeed to be fully informed about Mr Redgwell's afflilliations. I admire the guy, respect his huge knowledge and energy and appreciate his strong employment of those aspects towards bettering the public transport in the South West and Bristol area, but at times I feel that there's a drift (or indeed a heavy push) in what he says towards interests which are not purely personal. I would like to see something like
this from David, and indeed it might help many of us work closer alongside him.
3. A service that runs at different times each hour is always going to be harder to market / fill, I fear. Much easier to advertise "twenty five past the hour" than "twenty five past the even hour, five and forty five past the odd hour", so the 40 minute frequency is something of a tricky one on that front - but forced by section lengths, etc. I'm not sure what the solution is, but I would be reluctant to suggest / agree a cutback here even if it resulted in the release of a unit for a proper TransWilts service. "Where there's a will, there's a way" - offer
FGW▸ a subsidy of a million pounds a year to run a 153 on the TransWilts and they would find one somewhere, and not by removing another lucrative locally subsidised service either!