UK Flights Disrupted By Iceland!

[whole diary]

[Chris from Nailsea]

Actuarially, just what are the chances of a volcanic eruption benefiting you in that way?

C. 

[Chris from Nailsea]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Iceland volcano: Airlines face 'logistical nightmare'

The fallout from the Icelandic volcano will be felt a long time after the ash has settled.
For while the majority of flights may be back in the air by the beginning of next week, it will be many more days before the airlines have got their schedules back on track.
And that means more delayed flights for thousands of passengers, many of whom may be under the false impression that, once the ash clears, planes will be free to fly as normal.
"Airlines face a logistical nightmare," explains Barry Turner-Woods, contributing editor of Airlines World.
Not only will there be a backlog of flights to clear, but planes are stranded across the world in destinations thousands of miles from where they need to be.
Flight schedules are intricate and complex, and the consequences of missing just one flight, let alone hundreds, can be far reaching.
For example, as John Strickland, director of the aviation consultancy JLS Consulting, explains, an Air New Zealand flight from Hong Kong to London was forced to land in Frankfurt.
As a result, it had to cancel the flight back to Hong Kong. Another of the carrier's aircraft got into London from Los Angeles before the airspace closure - but meaning it had to cancel a London to LA flight because that plane is stuck at Heathrow Airport.
The domino effect only loses momentum once the airlines can start flying again.
"This is a really big headache, especially for long-haul operators," says Mr Strickland. "Airlines rely on a carefully-planned sequence of flights. Once the sequence is broken, it is very hard to catch up, particularly on complex routes such as the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) to Asia or Australia."
And as more airports fall under the volcanic cloud, the problem will only get worse, particularly when those airports are international hubs such as Paris and Frankfurt, both of which were closed on Friday.
The logistics involved in getting back on track are hard to grasp - it's not simply a question of waiting for the ash to clear and sending the planes on their way. In some cases, airlines won't be able to stick with the same crew," explains Mr Strickland. "Crew are entitled to rest periods and they may not be available for the next flight. It may actually be quicker to recover the plane with a different crew."
Airlines also have to bear in mind the time zones in which the crew are operating. Even if they are free, there are strict safety regulations to guard against jet lag. Crew's body clocks are intricately connected to flight schedules.
Not only, then, does the airline have to foot the bill for putting up crew in hotels while they wait, but they may have to pay for a whole new crew to fly out to pick up a stranded plane.
Mr Strickland estimates that it could take some airlines a full week after the ash clears before they can resume a normal service on complex long-haul flights.
Mr Turner-Woods believes it will take them four to five days. "It really depends on capacity - if the flights are full or not," he says. An airline with plenty of free seats will be able to clear the backlog quicker.
One thing is for sure, he argues: "You won't find any airlines hiring extra aircraft to cover the shortfall."
This is for the very simple reason that they cannot afford to.
"The fixed costs in the airline business are enormous, and they still need to be met," says Tim Coombs, managing director of Aviation Economics.
Large airlines such as British Airways or Lufthansa are losing about ^10m a day while their planes are grounded, according to Douglas McNeill, a transport analyst at Charles Stanley Securities.
And most major airlines can ill-afford to charter additional planes at a time when they are struggling to make money.
Short-haul operators, however, should be less badly affected.
"It will be relatively easy for short-haul, low-cost operators to get their schedules back on track," says Mr Coombs.
And there is no way of knowing which passengers will be hit as airlines struggle with the logistics of returning to business as normal.
"Some people will be lucky, others will not," says Mr Turner-Woods.
Then there is the problem of actually getting the planes off the ground once the ash clears.
Any airline will usually have the majority of its planes in the air, not all of them sitting on the ground. At airports that have been closed completely, this means there are huge numbers of planes that are parked up.
"Airlines don't usually have this much capacity on the ground," explains Mr Strickland.
"The choreography involved [in getting them all up in the air] is a real problem."
This will be a minor issue compared with re-scheduling entire flight programmes, but is just one of many logistical conundrums facing global airlines.
Unfortunately for airlines and passengers alike, the knock-on effects of the Icelandic volcanic eruption will be felt long after planes take to the skies once more.

[John R]

Actuarially, just what are the chances of a volcanic eruption benefiting you in that way?

C. 

Some of my actuarial colleagues are asking exactly the same question. And comments about lightning striking twice too. 

[Brucey]

All UK^▸ (United Kingdom) airspace has been closed again, until 1900 BST.

Saturday April 17: Latest update at 0415 (UK Time)

Following the latest information from the MET Office, NATS advises that restrictions across UK controlled airspace have been extended until at least 1900 (UK Time) today Saturday 17 April and that restrictions to Scottish and Manchester airspace have been re-applied until the same time.

Current forecasts show that the situation is worsening throughout Saturday. We are continuing to look for windows of opportunity to handle individual flights in UK controlled airspace.

The next update will be at approximately 0900 (UK time) as planned.

www.nats.co.uk

[broadgage]

According the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) news site, the restrictions not only cover the entire UK^▸ (United Kingdom) again, but have now been extended until at least 01-00 Sunday.

EDITED AT 16-00 on Saturday,flights now suspended until at least 07-00 Sunday.

[moonrakerz]

And the Grauniad is threatening an eruption that could last days or even weeks.

The last eruption lasted over a year ................

Viking longships were cancelling voyages because of ash in the rigging !!

[inspector_blakey]

Still erupting, although apparently the ash is now not reaching the same altitude so there's no new material being added to the cloud that's causing the problems in the jet lanes. From the Guardian:

In Iceland, the volcano continued to erupt, but volcanologists said was it less explosive than at the beginning of the eruption on Wednesday, which blasted glassy abrasive ash, destructive to jet engines, eight miles into the sky. The plume was now rising to a height of just three miles, and the volcanologists said this would deposit ash only in Iceland and in the surrounding waters. It was not high enough to travel thousands of miles across Britain and the rest of Europe.

Matthew Roberts, a glaciologist at the Iceland Meteorological Office, said they had not ruled out further big blasts but added: "There is currently no new material being added to the ash stream affecting aviation in Europe."
He also played down fears that Katla, a neighbouring larger volcano in Iceland, to the east of Eyjafjallajokull, could be stirred into life.

[johoare]

I was interested to see what kind of additional service Eurostar might be offering as a result of the flight disruption.  Having visited the website all I could find was a message saying they were doing all they could to run extra trains and accommodate extra passengers.  Not exactly very useful information, and a bit more trawling resulted in me finding that Christian Wolmer had already noticed:

http://www.christianwolmar.co.uk/2010/04/railway-cannot-no-longer-respond-to-crisis/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+feed%2Fchristianwolmar+%28Christian+Wolmar%29

Looks like a great opportunity to restore their damaged reputation has been squandered!

Eurostar have been absolutely wonderful today.. Having travelled somewhere in Europe (I may post a "where is it" photo later so want to be vague  ) and having chosen Eurostar over flying for my transport both ways, I was considering myself very very lucky today that I would get home OK whilst other people were unable to travel..

However my train to Brussels for the Eurostar broke down twice, and then we got transferred to another train by which point it was obvious that we were only going to get there with minutes to spare before departure..

Eurostar held the train for us (I think the train company I was travelling with must have told them as I couldn't get through on the phone due to all them being overwhelmed currently).. They rushed us (there were quite a lot of us in the same boat) through checking in and security and as soon as we were all on board we left..

I will be e-mailing them to praise them as if they hadn't have done this I think I might have been stuck in Belgium for at least a week if not more

Well done Eurostar..

[IndustryInsider]

Well done Eurostar..

Fair play.  Good to hear! 

[JayMac]

....(there were quite a lot of us in the same boat)....

Thought you said you were on a train! 

[johoare]

....(there were quite a lot of us in the same boat)....

Thought you said you were on a train! 

Ha Ha oh dear, such a good/bad choice of words in the circumstances 

[johoare]

Well done Eurostar..

Fair play.  Good to hear! 

I also did just find this (below) on the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) website too... Another plus for Eurostar (maybe they are just trying to get people home and aren't worried about trying to make themselves look good by shouting about it?)

"Eurostar added eight extra services on Saturday, but passengers are advised not to turn up without a booking"

[Brucey]

No flights until 0700 BST tomorrow (but we've heard this one before).  According to the beeb, Mandy, Adonis and co are "considering a number of ways to help Britons stranded by flight restrictions imposed after volcanic ash from Iceland drifted over the UK^▸ (United Kingdom)".
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8628605.stm

I've noticed that only controlled airspace is currently closed.  I've seen quite a few prop planes pass earlier which were fairly low - presumably flying by VFR in uncontrolled airspace.  Is this something that airlines could exploit in order to run more flights?

I heard from one of my university friends earlier.  He comes from Peru but studies in Bristol.  He should have arrived at Heathrow this morning, but is currently stuck in Miami (good or bad thing, I don't know).  He has no idea when he'll be back - considering we have exams in four weeks time and are still having vital lectures, he will be missing out quite badly.

[basset44]

Hi Inspector-Blakey

Thanks for you responce I was thinking it more on the lines of so many different TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company) and none of them having spare capacity to help.

ie The airport express becoming stoppers etc to release stock.

I know about travelling on Outer Suburban Stock if you class a 150 left Manchester yesterday at 12.30 to Cardiff My back was numb. But if you have tried you best to get home you be greatfull for anything just imagine how these poor people must feel
after getting back yet still have to wait

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8629097.stm

[JayMac]

It took me about five read-throughs to decipher that last post - and why is it dedicated to inspector_blakey