Your earlier post is interesting, so forgive me for reproducing it here:
As one of the doubters as to the validity of the Evergreen 3 scheme, let me address it.
Firstly, thanks for posting the links to an absolutely fascinating document! All of the rumours and contradicting statements have been answered, and the document(s) provide a very clear indication of Chiltern's ambitions.
Some of their intentions are, quite frankly, staggering! Some of the headlines include the 100 minute journey times that we'd been told about. Other improvements are impressive to say the least; London to Warwick Parkway in 75 minutes (down from 88 minutes); London to Banbury at 52 minutes (down from 63 minutes); London to Wycombe at 22 minutes (down from 29 minutes); 750 car park spaces at the new Water Eaton station; 350 at the revamped Bicester Town station; remodelled junction speeds with massive increases including Aynho Junction in the down direction raising from the current 40mph limit up to 85mph (that will be some track cant!); a rebuilt up platform at Bicester North with linespeed increased from 25mph to 100; and a stated hoped introduction date of December 2010 (for phase 1)- only just over a year away!
Now that little lot is ambitious to say the least. Perhaps too ambitious?
Whilst the scope of the track work goes quite some way beyond what I was expecting, I am still concerned that Chiltern are biting off more than they can chew with some of these proposed schedules. Even non-stop, 52 minutes from London to Banbury (a distance by rail of some 70 miles) is very challenging for a 100mph train with non-exceptional acceleration. I note that Chiltern are expecting a 1.2% worsenment of their PPM‡ figures as a result of the Stage 2 timetable - I wonder if that's what the press will pick up on!
Also, there are still a significant number of occasions when I have witnessed a Class 165 working vice a 168 on London to Birmingham services this year (I estimate about 5% of workings). That doesn't sound like much, but a Class 165 on those point-to-point timings will woefully struggle to keep up, whereas now it only loses a couple of minutes.
Added to that, fourteen months to install all of the realigned track, extra junctions and revised signalling is an incredibly tight time-scale in railway terms - even if major work started tomorrow.
I also have concerns about what the new timetable will mean for some existing passenger flows. It's win, win, win for many flows and the vast majority of commuters into and out of London. However, some routes suffer badly. As of now, anybody wanting to travel off-peak from High Wycombe to Banbury has 6 direct trains to choose from (and a couple of indirect ones) between 11am and 3pm. With the proposed timetable, there'll be only two trains - a service every two hours on the Stratford route.
High Wycombe to Birmingham fares even worse with no direct trains at all during those times - indeed with a change at Banbury there will still only be a service every two hours! So that's a huge decrease in the number of trains and options for a town of around 100,000. I suppose you could go from Wycombe to Oxford and change there, but if the AXC» timings are the same from Oxford as they are now, you'll be looking at a 25 minute connection time!
Other routes suffer as well; if you want to go from Beaconsfield to Denham, Ruislip or Wembley off-peak you currently have a direct train every 30 minutes (one stopping at West Ruislip and one at South). With Evergreen 3 then all of the direct trains are gone with only an hourly service if you change at Gerrards Cross.
It's a similar type of story to the WCML▸ Very High Frequency timetable, with lots of significant flows on the non-London routes suffering badly in comparison with before. Whether Chiltern will be forced to improve things remains to be seen.
So, overall, Chiltern should be congratulated for having the ambition and financial backing to propose such a scheme - and their 'track' record on being able to deliver them on time and on budget has so far been unquestioned - but many of my reservations remain! Thoughts?
The problem as far as I can see it is that Chiltern has scrimped on track upgrades south of High Wycombe - they could have reinstated passing loops at High Wycombe, Beaconsfield and Denham, but instead have restricted new loops to South Ruislip (down) and Princes Risborough (up). I suspect this will restrict their ability to add stops for local and Oxford services whilst maintaining 100 min timings for Birmingham services.
Evergreen 4 anyone?
Click on the map to explore geographics
