My analysis and thoughts to follow in next post ...
Really four targets?Have Gorey to Rosslare and Ennis to Athenley been included in the report consulation as decoys to draw the fire of those who object to those lines? Are the real targets the closure from Limeric to Ballynrophy and perhaps from Limeric Junction to Waterford? You'll note that I'm writing here mainly about the Rosslare line, and in doing so am I falling into the trap that the author of the consultation really only want to close two lines but I (and others) won't say much about those two being much smaller - so they'll go "as they don't have as much support" ... and with both sides able to claim a victory - "We save Rosslare" and "We managed to get rid of Roscrea"?
WexfordWexford (town) has a population of over 20,000 and is an intermediate station between Gorey and Eniscorthy has around 11,000 ... both are served by the line between Gorey and Rosslare, and neither of those two stations appears in the low usage list. Yet they seem to have been left off many / most of the maps that accompany the report, even though it shows Wicklow with a population of just uner 15,000 (on the section to be retained).
Short cuttingWhilst cutting the Rosslare service back to Gorey (population 9,000) from where it's currently viable northwards, will it still remain viable without throgh traffic from the South? It's not pure population that counts - I think there is some commuter traffic to Dubin from as far south as Gorey, but not beyond so you end up, potentially, with a single-traffic-source line and not a more general line as you have at present, with a much more marked peak and an an increased imbalance for furure use of resources. And I don't see people getting onto a coach as Rosslare Europort, Rosslare Strand, Wexford or Enniscorthy and then changing to a train at Gorey for the rest of the ride to Dublin - they'll want to stay on the coach if they travel this way at all.
1 day surveyWe are warned in the
UK▸ that train overcrowding figures are taken for a single day and really can't be used to draw any conclusions. Yet the passenge numbers for smaller stations in Ireland are also just one day, so do they tell us anything useful? And I recall faut beng found in some of the Beechin Report's figures because figures were gathered over a highly selective week. I have my doubts as to how much can be read into the passenger census data supplied.
Inappropriate service - e.g. two trains a dayI recall we had just 2 trains each way per day on the TransWilts until 2013 ... and that made marketing the line very difficult. And it was doubly so because the trains we had weren't right for daily commuter flows which can be the bread and butter of a line. Our service was that much less useful because of dreadful connections at junctions.
I see similar situations on all the lines up for consulatation. From Galway to Waterford - a natural through journey taking in two of the lines - you have a choice of 2 trains a day - at 06:20 or 13:45. Both involve changing at Limeric and Limerick junction - on the first you arrive at Limeric an hour and 20 minutes before leaving the junction, and on the second that stretches to three hours and a minute. In the reverse direction, the 07:20 off Waterford dumps you at Limeric Junction at 09:00 and you can enjoy both the junction and the city before continuing onwards at 14:20. Local commutes into Waterford with first train in at 11:26 and last train out at 16:25 ...
Clonmel (population 18,000) and Tipperary (population 5,000) each have but 2 trains each way per day - and it's the same train - where a train every 2 hours would be possible using the same set - and perhaps meeting a whole number of other potential flows. Between these two, they have pretty much the same population as Melksham where our increase from 2 trains each way by a factor of 4 has increased our passenger numbers by an estimated factor of 12.
The day boat from Fishguard arrives into Rosslare at 18:00 and if you're lucky and its on time, you'll be able to see the last train of the day - the 17:55 - pulling out for Dublin. If you don't want to spend the night in Rosslare, you can catch the 02:30 boat from Fishguard which arrives at 06:30 and will connect into the 07:20 train - but that's hardly a pleasant tourist trip with two nasty nighttime interchanges.
Taking the boat out? The 09:40 train from Dublin - the first of the day - arrives at Rosslare at 12:26. The 09:00 boat has long since gone. The 21:15 boat heads out just before the train arrives from Dublin at 21:28 ... the previous train reaches Wexford where it terminates at 20:12 (and you could probably make the conection by road) otherwise you're on the 16:37 from Dublin, 19:25 into Rosslare.
FishguardI would estimate that around 70 journeys per day are made on foot via the Rosslare / Fishguard ferry service, with perhaps 35 to 40 on the Irish side and 60 to 65 on the Welsh side transferring to and from the rail connections. In Ireland, there are more bus / coach services at Europort to places like Waterford (train service withdrawn a few years back!) and indeed to Wexford and Dublin which make the rail journety number on that side lower (they rather force people to the buses if you look at issues with train connections!).
BUT ... remove the train service to Rosslare and you'll reduce foot passenger numbers on the boat and decimate the Fishguard service; remember that the 35 to 40 on the Irish side are hardened rail users already and most won't switch to the coach from Gorey. So that's a prediction of a loss of 11,000 to 12,000 passngers per annum on the boat, and on journeys by rail to and from Fishguard Harbour Station if the Irish train goes.
MothballingThe Rosslare to Waterford stretched moved from a fully useful train service to a parliamentary service to an engineering siding / mothballed line and now there's a suggestion it be abandoned. With the longest rail bridge in Ireland on this section, being maintained in working condition but without income to fund that maintenance, you have something that doesn't look sane for the long term. And because of that glaring absurdity, anything less absurd will have an easy passage to being the current way it's done, even if that's catastrophic for the long term.
CBT‡ / TWSW» / RailFuture for Ireland? / ACoRP▸ / RDG‡ / Rail Users IrelandA question - who is there in Ireland who represents the rail industry and the passengers? I'm coming to this post blind, not aware of any Transport User's Consultative Committees, Community Rail organisations, Railfutures or TravelWatches. Are there passenger / rail user groups for the lines / towns concerned and any co-ordination of thoughts, responses and requests around these groups? How well informed are uses, potential users and businesses that can or could be effected by closures as to what's going on?
Consultation on what?There seems a disjoint between the quetions asked and the subejcts being reported on. Perhaps that allows the "we have consulted" box to be ticked and "we got no objections to xxxxx" during consultation to be truely stated in some cases because opinions simply weren't sought and few people thought to write in the extras. I'm afraid I'm a cynic, but being so because of the lessons of history.
BusesComment is made elsewhere that buses now run at similar time to trains on some of the routes. Where both are being subsidised the question needs to be asked "is this intended to be permanent", but at the same time it could simply be an agreement between the public transport providers that they have both identified the time that people want to travel. Frankly, that latter I doubt; having a ready-runnning bus smooths the way to explain a train removal, and perhaps reduces political pressure to retain the train by convining those people who decide, but never use either, that there's a reasonable alternative and they should mute their objections.
Plan B?Even the Serpell Report has plans A though D, with the least bad plan loosing just a couple of lines.
Where is the current marketing and information systems to grow some or all of these lines out of trouble? To modernise the crossings and reduce future costs in that way? I have plenty of thought how it could be done ...
In summaryI see so many similarities - places we and I have been and experience that may be the same (or not) across international boundaries. With one exception in the four lines, I know enough about them to say that with more service, connections, promotions and information they could grow - with growth disproportionaly ahead of the extra increase in sevices. They seem somewhere between neglected and tuned to fail at them moment, and once they're failed and lost it would be an almost impossible fight back.