It does go to show: provide a decent service, and it will be used!
Yes ... this is further evidence to help prove of that hypothysis ... which I think most of us know anyway. But let's hope for many, many further proofs of the same thing
It doesn't follow, though, that just because a service will be used (to the point of overcrowding) that it's actually in the interests of the rail industry to provide it
The first problem is that in many cases a "decent service" can't be magiced out of thin air. The first element is that you need the resources to get it going - and with franchises so short, it's not really practical for the
TOCs▸ to set up those resources. The
ROSCOs» are wary of building more diesel trains because of electrification plans, because of the "diesel trains ltd" proposal that I think the
DfT» made to undercut them, and because train leasing is more profitable in a market where a high price can be charged for a resource because it's scarse / in demand.
The second problem is that even on heavy loading figures, it's hard to make a profit under the current setup from a more local service. If you take a service that charges 50p+ per passenger per mile, in 7 coach trains running at an average speed of 80 m.p.h., your potential income is 20,000 pounds per hour. So that's a "125". Take a 150, 20p per passenger per mile, 2 coach train, averaging 50 m.p.h, and the potential top income is 1,500 pounds per hour. Those are heavily distorted figures; I provide them as an income
comparison only - it's that comparison that's given us a system where companies can bid large sums for franchises, yet for it to still be in their interest to supress loadings on shorter, local services. Having to increase Cardiff / Portsmouth from 2 to 3 coaches again was, I suspect, a financial disaster.
Congratulations to Devon and Cornwall for the overcoming these hurdles somewhat - by better use of stock and crews, and funding from other sources to help oil the wheels. Some of the lessons as to how they've done this do transpose / transfer up to the next set of counties, others perhaps don't. You certainly end up with a more heavily loaded network as you get further towards London, with additional risks in running extra more local trains that they'll get in the way of the longer distance and bigger ones, and delay minutes will rise again. That's not necessarily due to the new train's timetables failing to be robust in themselves - rather, it's that an on-time local train can delay still further an already-late express.