Aberystwyth-London route proposed

[whole diary]

[Chris from Nailsea]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Arriva Trains Wales has submitted a proposal for a new direct train service between Aberystwyth and London Marylebone station.

The company hopes to run two services a day, restoring a link with the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) capital which was withdrawn in 1991. The service would run via Shrewsbury and would use some of the same stations as the Wrexham and Shropshire (W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator))) service to Marylebone.

W&S has expressed fears a rival service could put it out of business.

In April, Virgin trains dropped plans to run a competing service between Wrexham, Shropshire and London after W&S said it may not survive.

Arriva said it had consulted widely to canvas local views and opinions, claiming the majority supported the proposal.

Ceredigion MP^▸ (Member of Parliament) Mark Williams and Montgomeryshire MP Lembit Opik both expressed support for the plans.
 
"In Ceredigion we have now been without a direct London service for 18 years, and this service would both be extremely useful for my constituents, and help attract more tourists by making Ceredigion more accessible," said Mr Williams.

Mr Opik added: "My only real concerns about a direct service from mid Wales to London were the reliability of the service, the quality of the rolling stock and whether their new service would harm the existing Wrexham to Marylebone service. However, following a number of meetings and discussions with Arriva trains, they have offered solutions to all three of these issues - by improving the carriages and timing their own trains not to directly compete with what's there already. Certainly, it seems an anomaly that, here in the 21st century, Ceredigion and Montgomeryshire lack a direct link with the British capital. Arriva are set to put that right, and that's got to be good for the region."

Dee Reynolds, regional strategy director for Tourism Partnership Mid Wales, said a direct London service would provide a real alternative to car use and "dispel the myth that mid Wales is inaccessible".
 
W&S marketing director Thomas Ableman has previously said Arriva's plans to "shadow" some of his company's routes was "clearly of concern to us". He added: "If Arriva's service plans do go ahead, it is highly likely that we will not survive. We don't mind fair competition - after all, it is essential for the success of open access operators like us. However, we are concerned that Arriva will be using assets funded by the taxpayer to compete with a newly established private operator. The trains they will be using are paid for by the taxpayer to run local services in Wales, not to duplicate our route to London."

But Mr Bagshaw refuted this, saying the service between Aberystwyth and London would be run on a "commercial basis".

[Phil]

This reminds me.... Lembit Opik might be a good chap to get on board for the campaign for an improved Melksham service.

His parents lived in Melksham up until his father's death a couple of years ago - his sister still lives around here and his Mum's still got an allotment next to mine. So if he wanted to visit, what better way than by train!

With a group save ticket for the Cheeky Girls, obviously.

(though I seem to remember hearing he was no longer connected with them... oh well)

[Btline]

I cannot see the point of this:

*I and the local user group feel the 158s wasted would be better used for an hourly service on the Cambrian line, which would actually help everybody.

*There is already 3 tph to London from the same platform/one platform change at Birmingham International, making it a viable changing point. NB that changing here will be quicker than the direct service.

*It is two trains, neither any good for business travellers.

*Running 90 mph DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) will affect Chiltern's desire to get 100 mph in as many places as possible to run 100 minute London Birmingham schedules.

*It will affect W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)), possibly putting the out of business.

It is not that I don't want a town getting a direct London train. It's just that a good hourly service with decent connexions at Crewe or B'ham would be better for the line, and help everyone travelling at all times.

[welshman]

As I understand it, the plan is to extend some of the existing Aberystwyth - B'ham International Services by splitting the trains at BHI and sending the front half on to London.  Since there is already a combining and splitting of trains at Machynlleth this would just be more of the same.

Because of the impending installation of ERTMS^▸ (European Rail Traffic Management System.) 158s would have to be used since they are the trainsets being fitted with the equipment. 

Quite how it would all work if there were delays to the London bit south of BHI is a question.

Quite how pleased you'd be with 5 hours or so on a 158 is another question although in fairness they're not bad so long as you have a seat.

[willc]

Unfortunately the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) has completely missed the only new angle to the story, which is that ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) has formally applied to the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) for permission to run the services.

Running 90 mph DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) will affect Chiltern's desire to get 100 mph in as many places as possible

 Chiltern use lots of 75mph 165s, such as the one I rode on the other week from Bicester to Wembley (operating a Snow Hill-London service) and even the 100mph one I rode back on hardly got anywhere near that speed most of the way. You can't just wave a wand and get rid of the 165s.

It will affect W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)), possibly putting the out of business.

But Mr Opik says he has raised this specific issue with ATW and they offered "timing their own trains not to directly compete with what's there already" so it sounds like they have moved on that question

As for business travellers, I doubt there are that many from Aberystwyth to start with, and if anyone does make the journey, they probably factor in an overnight stay in London unless they really want to spend nine hours on trains for little more than six hours in London.

[paul7575]

Also, this 'formal application', (which isn't online yet AFAICS^▸ (As Far As I Can See)), sounds as if it is little different to the one that appeared on Network Rail's track access pages back in the spring.

Is it to be assumed the earlier application was turned down, because if it wasn't, this is surely just a continuation following amendments?

Paul

[Btline]

I have to say that my first thought was "what's new" when I read the story!

Chiltern use lots of 75mph 165s, such as the one I rode on the other week from Bicester to Wembley (operating a Snow Hill-London service) and even the 100mph one I rode back on hardly got anywhere near that speed most of the way. You can't just wave a wand and get rid of the 165s.

Yes at the moment Chiltern hardly get near 100 mph, but the Evergreen 3 plans will see as many limits raised to as near 100 as possible. Therefore, having a few 90 mph 158s will eat up a little capacity at certain times of the day.

Chiltern timetable 100 mph 168s on the Snow Hill route. I assume some more are on order soon for the Oxford trains, and remember that W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)) will probably be gone, with Chiltern operating the route up to Wrexham with 168s. (and the loco sets running to Snow Hill)

[eightf48544]

As Welshman says another fly in the ointment of these scheme is the need to use ERTMS^▸ (European Rail Traffic Management System.) fitted 168s. For West of Shrewsbury.

Judging by previous signalling new schemes the chances of ERTMS working properly when switched on seems remote, therefore, Arriva will probably need all the 158s with ERTMS to run the service West of Shrewsbury. They've still not got ERTMS working fully between Brussels and Amsterdamn.

Having an ERTMS fitted 158 disappearing to London for 4 hours or more doesn't seem practicle.

Interesting point shouldn't the system be working by now? It seems to have gone awfully quite.

 

[willc]

What appeared on Network Rail's website and is still on ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company)))'s was a brochure outlining the broad plan and inviting opinions as part of a consultation process - a completely different kettle of fish from a formal ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) track access application document.

ERTMS^▸ (European Rail Traffic Management System.) is in use on some main lines in Switzerland and Italy and has been for a couple of years. According to the local user group, the Cambrian switch-on is apparently expected in October. And lots of jobs the ATW 158s do are away from the Cambrian area and always will be, but since all the ATW 158s are based at Machynlleth depot, they are getting ERTMS fitted as standard.

Chiltern timetable 100 mph 168s on the Snow Hill route

Really? Well let me assure you I know what a 165 looks like and what I was riding on was a 2x3-car 165 formation to Wembley, with a Clubman on the way back.

Quite apart from any that naughtily get to Snow Hill, almost all the Stratford-upon-Avon service is 165-operated, so these are pottering along at 75mph south of Leamington and will continue to do so.

The ATW services would be running outside the Chiltern peak periods and will be a lot faster than the 75mph 165s and the slower freights that also operate on the route, so please drop this silly idea that they will in any way interfere with Chiltern. Perhaps Chiltern's 100mph trains are getting in the way of XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise))'s 125mph-capable trains between Banbury and Leamington? Maybe they should be banned from that route.

And where have you got this stuff about Chiltern and W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)) from? Ie, just for once, instead of giving us your opinion, provide a credible source for your claims.

The only context in which Chiltern has ever discussed using loco-hauled stock was to provide extra peak-only capacity between Banbury and London and this idea has still got no further than the drawing board.

But you are now telling us that having launched a long-distance service, taking four hours end to end, with Mk3s and a full catering service, they are going to put on underfloor DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit), with no catering facilities (and presumably firing most of their onboard staff)? A type of train which you claim is unsuitable for the sensitive souls of Worcester to sit in for just over two hours. Although when operated by the saintly Chiltern it's fine for journeys almost that long between London and Birmingham.

Sounds like a recipe for making Chiltern and W&S's names dirt in Shropshire, just like Virgin's, while giving Virgin's Wrexham through trains an instant boost and probably making people in Shropshire instantly more amenable to ATW's ideas.

[Btline]

Really? Well let me assure you I know what a 165 looks like and what I was riding on was a 2x3-car 165 formation to Wembley, with a Clubman on the way back.

Sorry, I'll clarify.

I don't doubt you were on a 165. I never stated as much. In the past, the 8.10 from Kidderminster has been formed (or half formed) by 165s. This does not change the fact that Snow Hill services are booked for 168s, and thus are marked in the timetable as "Clubman" trains. As you stopped at Wembley, I expect it was a special match day (?) where perhaps the rolling stock was out of place. Or perhaps they wanted more people seated. But if these guesses are wrong, I apologise in advance.

[matt473]

Apparently W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)) will cease to trade from December. I have read various rumours which I will summarise henceforth:

Basically W&S are not making a profit, and DB^» (Deutsche Bahn - German State Railway - about) are not happy. Most passengers are travelling to London in the morning and back in the afternoon/evening. Therefore the morning peak W&S service will be run by the loco hauled set. During the off peak time it will run Snow Hill trains, before returning to Wrexham in the evening. The other Wrexham trains (which may be axed) will be operated by 168s, enabling journey time reductions (better acceleration and because higher speed limits apply to 168s). The other rumour is that ALL Wrexham trains will be 168s and the loco hauled sets will be put on Snow Hill trains all day. ALL trains will be branded and operated by Chiltern Railways.

Note that the above is an amalgamation of several things I have read on a website I found recently called Rail Forum UK^▸ (United Kingdom), all of which may change. However, I feel that they are reliable, as the forum seems to be for rail workers - they all seem to be "in the know".

There is another forum I am part of which has a member of W&S staff and he states this nothing but rumours. There is also an unwritten rule that unless something is reported as fact do not post it as it can be very distressing to staff for people to say they may lose their jobs whilst rumours quite often are just rumours, especially when the railway is involved. It is also worth remembering that WSMR^▸ (Wrexham, Shropshire and Marylebone Railway) have not been running for long and are still devloping their market which seems to be working and will leave them to benefit when the competition clause in Virgins franchise runs out enablling them to pick up at Birmingham for London.

[devon_metro]

Indeed, i've read something direct from the hands of the MD, Andy Hamilton!

There is prospect of an 1833 London - Wrexham soon.

[willc]

Ah, the good old rumour mill...

And would you believe it, most people are going up to London in the morning and back in the evening. I'm sure that never occurred to them when planning the service.

Should anyone wish to read Mr Hamilton's post, it's in this thread http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=26365

I don't dispute most of Chiltern's Birmingham trains are 168s, but there are still several booked 165 services in the timetable and, if I am to believe the rolling stock class numbers at the head of every column in the draft December timetables http://www.chilternrailways.co.uk/news/news-archive/ttconsult-dmr09/ there will continue to be some both on weekdays and weekends, most running in much the same timings as the 168s, which means the present timetable is largely built around 75mph timings.

Even if it is speeded up at the end of next year, there will still be lots of 75mph Chiltern services running, at least as far as Leamington en route to Stratford, so berating ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) for proposing 90mph stock is a bit much.

[Btline]

I think W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)) were hoping for more London to Shropshire "days out" passengers. These clearly havn't materialised and the recent timetable reduction now prohibit such a day out on W&S.

Re: the 1833, this has been on the cards for a while, as Chiltern tweaked their timetable about a year ago to fit it in. However, in December no W&S filled the gaps! I'm glad they are finally putting it in. I think the 8pm-ish train will be removed though.

I only posted it because the posters seemed certain, and also seem to be rail staff.

EDIT: I have decided to remove the post above lest people interpret rumours as fact.

Remember, that Chiltern are getting a loco set this December. Who from?

[matt473]

The Chiltern loco is not confirmed and may not happen as the growth is passenger numbers predicted that would have led to the need for loco hauled diagrams has not happened because of the recession. There is nothing certain what will happen yet and will not be decided upon for a while yet.

To address another point, WSMR^▸ (Wrexham, Shropshire and Marylebone Railway) have worked hard to bring services to both Wrexham and Shrewsbury which led to Virgin starting a trial service to Wrexham and ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) with this proposal. These are both commercial services that are not part of the franchise so it can be argued the stock can be better used sticking to franchise requirements or transferred elsewhere. With TOCs wanting to get in on the act then obviously there is a profit to be made from this route.