HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion

[whole diary]

[JayMac]

One of Rishi's Network North projects has started running:



£35,999,995,000 left to spend.

[Mark A]

MP^▸ (Member of Parliament) Iain Stewart is the chair of the commons transport committee. His statement from the day of Sunak's announcement (October 4th) already rather undercut by further developments, it will be, at the least, 'Interesting', to see how this unfolds. There's mutterings that the government with this one has already got itself across the hawse of its own net zero legislation.

Mark

https://policymogul.com/key-updates/31370/transport-committee-chair-iain-stewart-comments-on-hs2-and-pm-s-announcements

[Mark A]

Aaaannd a second parliamentary petition, slightly better expressed.

Mark

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/648150

[Red Squirrel]

An interesting take on HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) from Oxera, an economics and finance consultancy. I won't quote the whole thing - you can read it here https://www.oxera.com/insights/agenda/articles/rethinking-hs2/

...but here is their conclusion:

Our analysis suggests that there are good reasons to cancel Phase 2 of HS2. However, the country also needs more transport investment, and the budget flexibility afforded by the cancellation of Phase 2 is an important opportunity. How do we make the most of this?

Well-articulated business cases are required for each of the new Network North investments, announced to use the funding freed up by Phase 2 of HS2 being cancelled. We need a genuine debate on the strategic needs that should be met and the projects that should be taken forward. We also need business cases that quantify benefits in a way that is linked to the strategic case. This is more difficult than the current approach, but it will also allow us to make better decisions.

It is important that we learn from HS2. A key lesson from the 2006 Eddington Review is particularly relevant: the review found that a set of smaller interventions can often have a much greater overall cumulative impact than large, ‘showpiece’ schemes. Equally, the value of each element of a large project should be understood. The overall impact of many small decisions in concert can deliver much better value for money for the tax payer than a single major project.

What they don't explain is how you could deliver a 100km-long railway line with perhaps one or two intermediate stations via 'smaller interventions'. They also seem to be suggesting that the thing that will really get Britain moving is... giving much more work to consultancies.

[Mark A]

It's informative to read the Oxera report along with the Oakervee review from December 2019:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5e5f6d6d86650c5143547885/oakervee-review.pdf

Quotes from the Oakervee report include:

"Phase One as a standalone scheme makes litle sense."
"the government should consider merging the constructon of Phase 2a with that of Phase One"

Also, the Oxera report's authors' selective use of statistics to support their conclusion is notable - for example, Avanti West Coast's rather uninspiring recovery since 2019 compared with e.g. LNER^» (London North Eastern Railway - about) and the general figures on long distance travel.

Avanti West Coast's current passenger figures and performance should not be taken to be equivalent to HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))'s potential.

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2207/passenger-rail-usage-jan-mar-2023.pdf

I see it's also quoting a figure of £20 billion for HS2 phase 2a (source, Lord Tony Berkeley).

The House of Commons Library's report on HS2 from June '22 estimates £5-7 billion for the same.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9313/

Lastly, the Oxera report, keen to split passenger travel into 'Business' and 'Leisure', uses the word 'Freight' just once in the entire document:

"HS2 was conceived to increase capacity along the West Coast Main Line (WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line)), and to a lesser extent, the East Coast Main Line (ECML^▸ (East Coast Main Line)). By taking inter-city services off existing lines, HS2 would free up space on them to allow more commuter and freight services, improving connectivity, reliability and crowding on services."

Redsquirrel's closing paragraph is a good take on this: between Birmingham and Crewe the west coast main line itself needs an intervention to increase capacity and it's one that can't be done on-route.

"What they don't explain is how you could deliver a 100km-long railway line with perhaps one or two intermediate stations via 'smaller interventions'."

.

Mark

[TaplowGreen]

It's informative to read the Oxera report along with the Oakervee review from December 2019:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5e5f6d6d86650c5143547885/oakervee-review.pdf

Quotes from the Oakervee report include:

"Phase One as a standalone scheme makes litle sense."
"the government should consider merging the constructon of Phase 2a with that of Phase One"

Also, the Oxera report's authors' selective use of statistics to support their conclusion is notable - for example, Avanti West Coast's rather uninspiring recovery since 2019 compared with e.g. LNER^» (London North Eastern Railway - about) and the general figures on long distance travel.

Avanti West Coast's current passenger figures and performance should not be taken to be equivalent to HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))'s potential.

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2207/passenger-rail-usage-jan-mar-2023.pdf

I see it's also quoting a figure of £20 billion for HS2 phase 2a (source, Lord Tony Berkeley).

The House of Commons Library's report on HS2 from June '22 estimates £5-7 billion for the same.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9313/

Lastly, the Oxera report, keen to split passenger travel into 'Business' and 'Leisure', uses the word 'Freight' just once in the entire document:

"HS2 was conceived to increase capacity along the West Coast Main Line (WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line)), and to a lesser extent, the East Coast Main Line (ECML^▸ (East Coast Main Line)). By taking inter-city services off existing lines, HS2 would free up space on them to allow more commuter and freight services, improving connectivity, reliability and crowding on services."

Redsquirrel's closing paragraph is a good take on this: between Birmingham and Crewe the west coast main line itself needs an intervention to increase capacity and it's one that can't be done on-route.

"What they don't explain is how you could deliver a 100km-long railway line with perhaps one or two intermediate stations via 'smaller interventions'."

.

Mark

I would imagine those figures of 58% and 48% of 2019 levels of demand for commuting and business travel respectively go a long way to explaining why revenue is only at 70% of the corresponding period, notwithstanding (less lucrative) leisure travel being at 91%.

I knew there was a reduction in demand in these two key areas from the revenue figures, but I hadn't realised it had been quite that dramatic.

[IndustryInsider]

As has pointed out, it's interesting that the number of long distance journeys that are now being undertaken is significantly higher than the point at which a new line, in the form of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), was deemed necessary to deliver additional capacity and release paths for more freight/regional services back in 2010.

[Mark A]

From the Hansard Society. Useful outline of what was involved and what doesn't now *need* to happen and other things that will be untidy if they don't happen.

Mark

https://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/blog/hs2-fiasco-what-does-it-mean-for-parliament

[ChrisB]

Confirmation that the Bills are permissive, not mandatory & don't require the Government to build any part.

[Mark A]

Messrs Sunak and Harpur will not be using films such as the following to build their knowledge of rail as a transport mode, but... you never know. "Gosh, look at this, business travellers! So popular back then, they had a whole train for 'em! Won't need that now."

(On topic, at about 14' 00", a clip of what is now the venue for the 2023 Conservative conference in Manchester.)

Mark

https://player.bfi.org.uk/free/film/watch-blue-pullman-1960-online

[Electric train]

Confirmation that the Bills are permissive, not mandatory & don't require the Government to build any part.

It is the arrogance of the current Government ignoring Parliament to make such announcements, changes in Government policy should be made before Parliament and not as an electioneering ploy at a political part conference.   

[ChrisB]

That I can't disagree with!

[Mark A]

Thread from Andrew Adonis.

Mark

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1716934228477374711.html

[TonyK]

Thread from Andrew Adonis.

Mark

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1716934228477374711.html

Even if you criticise the thread for its overt political slant (he was a Labour minister after all) what he says makes an awful lot of sense. A lot more than cancelling half of the project to try to win a few votes for a sinking government, announcing a lot of new projects that were already under way, and threatening to sell the route to the highest donor bidder.

My suggestion? First, don't sell the land. Then complete the first stage of the project, ushering in Lord Adonis as minister for it after the next election. He's right - the sight of trains hurtling from (hopefully) Euston to Birmingham at 250 mph then having to trundle behind the delayed 1602 Liverpool to Manchester calling at all stops will spark outrage sufficient to overcome objection. Especially when they see the extra local services and goods travelling by train that used to go by road or air.

[IndustryInsider]

He's right - the sight of trains hurtling from (hopefully) Euston to Birmingham at 250 mph then having to trundle behind the delayed 1602 Liverpool to Manchester calling at all stops will spark outrage sufficient to overcome objection.

Even if there's no 'stopper' or freight in front, 'Classic' HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) trains will be restricted to 110mph, rather than 125mph, on non-HS2 tracks because they won't have any tilting ability.