HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion

[whole diary]

[TaplowGreen]

.....the white elephant becomes a killer whale!

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/top-tory-warns-hs2-killer-27561948?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

[eightf48544]

Heard something on Radio 4 this am that a new cut and cover tunnel being built for HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) may have to be demolished due to defects in the cast concrete segments.

C'est la vie.

[TonyK]

.....the white elephant becomes a killer whale!

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/top-tory-warns-hs2-killer-27561948?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Although reading beyond the sensationalist headline in search of something a little more objective, I found:

A HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) Ltd spokesperson said: "With over 350 construction sites active between London and Crewe, three giant tunnelling machines currently underground, and works started on our viaducts and stations, HS2 is on budget and making fantastic progress.

"Furthermore, the project is providing work for over 26,000 people, with tens of thousands more jobs supported through our wider supply chain, and more than 2,500 companies awarded HS2 contracts to date.

"HS2 is zero-carbon public transport that will play a vital part in the Government's ambitions to level-up the Midlands and North."

which sounds more koi carp than killer whale, and suggests that HS2 will in fact be built.

Next up: Sizewell C and Wylfa.

[IndustryInsider]

I’ll only get interested when CornwallLive get some kind of scoop.

[ellendune]

He told the Telegraph that the next PM faces "killer whales", which he explained were "the big projects that sit out there below the surface, waiting to breach above the waves and rip your arm off".

He contrasted those with "hornets" plaguing the Government - issues such as the cost-of-living crisis, strikes and NHS backlogs.

I think the new PM might very soon find that at least one of those hornets nests becomes a killer whale. 

[TaplowGreen]

.....the white elephant becomes a killer whale!

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/top-tory-warns-hs2-killer-27561948?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Although reading beyond the sensationalist headline in search of something a little more objective, I found:

A HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) Ltd spokesperson said: "With over 350 construction sites active between London and Crewe, three giant tunnelling machines currently underground, and works started on our viaducts and stations, HS2 is on budget and making fantastic progress.

"Furthermore, the project is providing work for over 26,000 people, with tens of thousands more jobs supported through our wider supply chain, and more than 2,500 companies awarded HS2 contracts to date.

"HS2 is zero-carbon public transport that will play a vital part in the Government's ambitions to level-up the Midlands and North."

which sounds more koi carp than killer whale, and suggests that HS2 will in fact be built.

Next up: Sizewell C and Wylfa.

Out of interest, re: the "on budget" claim, what is the budget?

[TonyK]

Out of interest, re: the "on budget" claim, what is the budget?

Good question. It won't be as much as Dale Vince was asking for on the radio this morning to keep the power companies going through one winter, but it will still be a pretty penny.

[TaplowGreen]

Surprise Surprise!

   

"First phase of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) set to bust budget by ‘many billions’ of pounds"



https://www.ft.com/content/b804b37c-52c2-41b7-801a-eece63de2bb3


   The first stage of the UK^▸ (United Kingdom)’s new HS2 high-speed railway is running “many billions” of pounds over its £40.3bn budget and the Treasury has asked for further potential cuts to the project, according to an internal review.

Europe’s biggest infrastructure scheme has already more than tripled in price since it was approved a decade ago. Since construction started on the first phase of the line between London and Birmingham in 2020 the cost looks set to increase further, according to a report presented to HS2’s board by Jon Thompson, the former head of HM Revenue & Customs, who became deputy chair of the project in April last year.

The review said it was “very unlikely” that the £40.3bn price tag for the London to Birmingham section would be met. Although the first phase allowed for a contingency that would stretch the budget to £44.6bn, the report concluded there was only a 50 per cent chance that would be enough.

The final cost was likely to be “many billions more than the reported estimate,” the document, dated June 22 2022 and seen by the Financial Times, warned. It also criticised HS2’s decision to continue to record costs in 2019 prices as this meant none of the figures reflected “what has been or is being paid.”

It added: “In almost every area reviewed significant developments are planned in 2022/23 which impact on the estimates and risk.” Rising inflation was also proving a “significant and growing challenge.”

In a sign that HS2 was struggling to maintain control over costs, the project faced “bids for money from contractors on a continual basis and significant and lengthy commercial discussions around them”.

The Treasury has asked management to identify potential cuts or “scope reductions” to the full project, according to the document. But it warned that shrinking the HS2 further would hurt its “value for money” case.

The original plan to build a Y-shaped line between London, Manchester and Leeds via Birmingham was costed at £33bn a decade ago. Last year, the Boris Johnson’s government announced it was axing most of the eastern leg to Leeds in a bid to find cost savings as the total budget for the project looked set to exceed £100bn.

Any further cuts would probably include cutting or delaying elements of the second phase of the project, which is meant to run north of Birmingham to Manchester via Crewe.

The review also highlighted shortcomings in the way the first phase was being managed. It said two of the four consortiums hired to oversee the engineering work did not have “sufficient capacity and capability to manage all the various obligations placed up on them.” In hindsight, the consortiums were “too large to effectively manage and control,” it added.

The first phase of the project is already running at least three years late with trains not expected to run between the capital and Birmingham until 2031.

The threat of further HS2 cost overruns will add to the pressure on prime minister Liz Truss. In July, then cabinet officer minister Kit Malthouse warned that HS2 was a “killer whale” that could “rip the arm” off the next prime minister.

More than £4bn of improvements to other parts of the UK’s railway system have already been axed because of a governmental decision to focus spending on the high-speed railway line.

The government said it remained “committed to delivering [HS2] on time and to budget,” adding: “As with all projects of this scale, contracts and scope are routinely considered to ensure they continue to deliver the value for money for taxpayers.”

[broadgage]

.....the white elephant becomes a killer whale!

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/top-tory-warns-hs2-killer-27561948?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Although reading beyond the sensationalist headline in search of something a little more objective, I found:

A HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) Ltd spokesperson said: "With over 350 construction sites active between London and Crewe, three giant tunnelling machines currently underground, and works started on our viaducts and stations, HS2 is on budget and making fantastic progress.

"Furthermore, the project is providing work for over 26,000 people, with tens of thousands more jobs supported through our wider supply chain, and more than 2,500 companies awarded HS2 contracts to date.

"HS2 is zero-carbon public transport that will play a vital part in the Government's ambitions to level-up the Midlands and North."

which sounds more koi carp than killer whale, and suggests that HS2 will in fact be built.

Next up: Sizewell C and Wylfa.

It was earlier today announced that Sizewell C was "under review" but the latest reports state that the project is "not under review"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63507630

[TonyK]

It was earlier today announced that Sizewell C was "under review" but the latest reports state that the project is "not under review"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63507630

I've done my own review of the reviews, and come to the conclusion that Sizewell C is not under review, although I will keep that under review. The reason will be spun, if spin is needed, as government getting on with a crucial project with huge significance for climate change and energy security, at a cost which looks quite reasonable when compared to the £100 billion-plus that the treasury has spaffed on keeping energy affordable in one year alone. The alternative would look like giving in to the populist mob at the door. The other major party has nuclear power as official policy, with a few dissenters, so won't kick up a fuss.

If that resistance to protest is to be the general basis of policy for all major infrastructure projects under construction, then HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) has nothing to worry about, and may even see reinstatement of the Golborne link to WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line). If the government abandons too many big jobs, it will face renewed accusations of ignoring the small insignificant wastelands outside London, known in the Westminster bubble as "the rest of the UK^▸ (United Kingdom)", and will cast doubt on the true commitment to levelling up. Pulling back on Northern Powerhouse will do that, but not to such a big extent as tampering with HS2 would. That said, I hope the Northern project survives too.

[Bmblbzzz]

My mate's a theatre critic. He reviews revues. His latest is Sizewell, the Musical:

Has potential, but takes time to get warmed up and lacks sparks. Would have better if staged 20 years ago.

[TonyK]

My mate's a theatre critic. He reviews revues. His latest is Sizewell, the Musical:

Has potential, but takes time to get warmed up and lacks sparks. Would have better if staged 20 years ago.

We have Margaret Beckett to thank for scrapping the musical the day before its opening night in 2001. One could argue (and I do) that it is her fault that we are in the energy mess we find ourselves now, with a real possibility of missing our national targets without a lot of greenwashing, broadgage indulgence selling, and offshoring of our pollution.

Still, better late than never. Hinkley C should produce enough no-carbon emitted electricity to power HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), and Sizewell C will be on hand in case Northern Powerhouse Rail ever gets done.

[TaplowGreen]

My mate's a theatre critic. He reviews revues. His latest is Sizewell, the Musical:

Has potential, but takes time to get warmed up and lacks sparks. Would have better if staged 20 years ago.

We have Margaret Beckett to thank for scrapping the musical the day before its opening night in 2001. One could argue (and I do) that it is her fault that we are in the energy mess we find ourselves now, with a real possibility of missing our national targets without a lot of greenwashing, broadgage indulgence selling, and offshoring of our pollution.

Still, better late than never. Hinkley C should produce enough no-carbon emitted electricity to power HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), and Sizewell C will be on hand in case Northern Powerhouse Rail ever gets done.

The difference being that unlike HS2, the country and vast majority of the population enthusiastically support and need energy security and more self - sufficiency, so if it comes down to decisions on big ticket expenditure, it's a much easier decision for the Government and a much better way of saving £ billions.

[TonyK]

The difference being that unlike HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), the country and vast majority of the population enthusiastically support and need energy security and more self - sufficiency, so if it comes down to decisions on big ticket expenditure, it's a much easier decision for the Government and a much better way of saving £ billions.

Some things in transport are easier to measure than others. A new stretch of road or motorway will immediately fill with cars, showing what a very good idea it was. A new rail route between London and Birmingham, on the other hand, may just switch passengers from one to the other to begin with. But it could mean that there is a fair bit more room to transport goods from Scotland and the north by rail instead of road.

[Sixty3Closure]

Opening paragraph from an article in the Daily Telegraph. The Telegraph is probably against HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) (it seems to be against most things) but it does echo my view that if it was going to be built it should have started in the North or even Scotland.

HS2 will cost taxpayers more than the benefits it will deliver, the Government has admitted for the first time.

Analysis conducted by civil servants found that the rail project will now deliver just 90 pence in economic benefit for every £1 it costs, raising fresh questions about its existence ahead of this week’s Autumn Statement.

The report, unearthed in a new paper by Policy Exchange, a centre-right think tank, comes after ministers said the first leg of the route is likely to overshoot its “target cost” as it burns through cash reserves.

Conservative MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament) have raised questions about the project, which was originally intended to cost £38 billion, but is now expected to exceed £100 billion by the time it is complete.

The report also said that 43 per cent of the economic benefits of HS2 will be felt by those living in London and the South East, despite ministers’ claims it would be a major component of the Government’s “levelling up” project.