HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion

[whole diary]

[Celestial]

Simon Jenkins has been a consistent critic of this project, as I recall. However one of his points does rather resonate:

It is commuter railways, especially in the provinces, that are screaming for investment. The government’s obsession with another London-oriented mega-project is baffling.

HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) *is* an investment in commuter lines - by putting long distance passengers on new, separate tracks there is significantly more capacity and timetabling possibilities for commuter and regional services that previously had to share. The potential is huge.

I'm in favour of HS2, but I don't think the "investment in commuter lines" is terribly convincing.  It will only help one of the many commuter lines out of London (maybe three if the Eastern arm ever gets built). 

Also, with everyone saying that commuter numbers are falling due to people working from home, (especially the type of workers that can afford to commute the longer distances), I think the pressure will be to run those services with less subsidy, not more.  The only way you can do that is to continue to cram people in with lots of standing.  What people want is a seat, preferably a comfortable one, though that seems to have gone out of fashion.  To give them that will need more trains for the same number of passengers and that will cost more.

[Red Squirrel]

Simon Jenkins has been a consistent critic of this project, as I recall. However one of his points does rather resonate:

It is commuter railways, especially in the provinces, that are screaming for investment. The government’s obsession with another London-oriented mega-project is baffling.

HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) *is* an investment in commuter lines - by putting long distance passengers on new, separate tracks there is significantly more capacity and timetabling possibilities for commuter and regional services that previously had to share. The potential is huge.

I'm in favour of HS2, but I don't think the "investment in commuter lines" is terribly convincing.  It will only help one of the many commuter lines out of London (maybe three if the Eastern arm ever gets built). 

Also, with everyone saying that commuter numbers are falling due to people working from home, (especially the type of workers that can afford to commute the longer distances), I think the pressure will be to run those services with less subsidy, not more.  The only way you can do that is to continue to cram people in with lots of standing.  What people want is a seat, preferably a comfortable one, though that seems to have gone out of fashion.  To give them that will need more trains for the same number of passengers and that will cost more.

The term 'commuter' is a slippery one, and is often used interchangeably with 'passenger' by commentators with a metropolitan bias.

However when I read "investment in commuter lines" I think of Portishead, Thornbury, Saltford, Radstock, Plymouth-Okehampton-Exeter, the Valleys, Northern Powerhouse Rail, Burton-Ashby-Leicester, local electrification and capacity improvements, and dozens of other smallish schemes that are currently scratting around for pennies which could all be completed for a fraction of the cost of HS2.

[mjones]

The term 'commuter' is a slippery one, and is often used interchangeably with 'passenger' by commentators with a metropolitan bias.

However when I read "investment in commuter lines" I think of Portishead, Thornbury, Saltford, Radstock, Plymouth-Okehampton-Exeter, the Valleys, Northern Powerhouse Rail, Burton-Ashby-Leicester, local electrification and capacity improvements, and dozens of other smallish schemes that are currently scratting around for pennies which could all be completed for a fraction of the cost of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)).

Unfortunately they would also carry a fraction of the passengers and hence deliver a fraction of the  benefits. It is a mistake to think that cancelling HS2 would free up funding for local schemes. These would still have to be justified in their own right through the  normal business case process; and cancelling HS2 wouldn't do anything to improve those cases.

[TonyK]

Many of these properties will be those close to the line, but won't actually need to be demolished. But they are hard to sell because people don't want to live so close to a construction site, and they fear the noise once trains are running will be unbearable. So I suspect they will be rented out and once the line is up and running sold at a reasonable price.  Once trains are passing I expect the actual disturbance will be much less than feared and that will be reflected in the sale price.

So whilst it may be true to say that £600m has been spent buying properties, I expect the eventual cost of those properties will be mainly limited to those that need to be demolished. 

Transport for Greater Manchester bought a small terraced street of fairly new houses in preparation for the extension of the tram network to Manchester Airport. They were then used to house homeless families pending a permanent arrangement for 3 years or so, and only demolished when the line reached them.

On the Oldham centre extension, almost the first works undertaken were to build a Baptist church and a funeral parlour. These were finished just in time for the arrival of the line, straight through where the original buildings stood.

[Chris125]

I'm in favour of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), but I don't think the "investment in commuter lines" is terribly convincing.  It will only help one of the many commuter lines out of London (maybe three if the Eastern arm ever gets built). 

There are lines carrying commuters into Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds which should also - to varying extents - benefit from HS2 freeing up track and train capacity. Then there's Northern Powerhouse Rail which should see new commuter and regional services piggybacking on the infrastructure for HS2's second phase.

Clearly HS2 isn't enough but it's simplistic suggest you can either invest in intercity railways or commuter railways - providing an extra pair of tracks into four of our largest cities will benefit both.

Also, with everyone saying that commuter numbers are falling due to people working from home, (especially the type of workers that can afford to commute the longer distances), I think the pressure will be to run those services with less subsidy, not more. 

Some people were, but there are clear signs of a return to growth on both rail and tube so that may have been a touch premature...

[stuving]

There have always been complaints about noise by the neighbours of LGVs^▸ (Large Goods Vehicle) in France, in particular from those already there before the line. A very French quango (Conseil Général de l'Environnement et du Développement Durable) was asked in 2018 to look into this for the two latest lines (Brest and Bordeaux), and concluded the average noise was within the legal limits.

Now it has struck them that it's the peak of noise when a train passes that matters. Amazing what a committee of experts can come up with, isn't it? So the government has decided to spend €33M (not all theirs, obviously) on sound reduction measures. English report from The Connexion:

A new €30 million project to reduce the noise of high-speed train lines in France has been launched after residents complained of the negative impact it is having on their lives.

The project will concentrate on the lines from Brittany-Pays-de-la-Loire, and South-Europe-Atlantic, which links Tours and Bordeaux.

The plans were confirmed after a report from environment council le Conseil Général de l'Environnement et du Développement Durable (CGEDD), which was set up in 2018 after numerous resident complaints.

The report said: “Though the noise is generally limited on average, the situation is intolerable for residents due to loud peaks [of sound] when the trains go past.”

Following the report’s conclusions, transport minister Elisabeth Borne confirmed €33 million-worth of works to improve the “sound protection” of the residents living near the lines in question.

In a longer statement, Ms Borne said: “Work will be done to address these situations, on a case-by-case basis, such as adapting infrastructure (raising slopes, lengthening walls), or isolating properties.

“With these measures that we are going to take, affected residents will benefit from necessary sound protection work. Each of them can count on my total determination to evolve the structure in the future, to better take into account these noise peaks.”

[grahame]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)

The chairman of the High Speed 2 rail project has reportedly warned that its cost could rise by £30bn.

HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) chairman Allan Cook has written to the Department for Transport to say the high-speed line cannot be delivered within its £56bn budget, according to the Financial Times.

[TonyK]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)

The chairman of the High Speed 2 rail project has reportedly warned that its cost could rise by £30bn.

HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) chairman Allan Cook has written to the Department for Transport to say the high-speed line cannot be delivered within its £56bn budget, according to the Financial Times.

No doubt that will come as a shock to somebody, and will be seized upon as ammunition in the battle to stop HS2. That £56 billion figure was promulgated a long time ago, when the pound was still worth something in the places where we will be sourcing materials for the project, not forgetting the trains themselves. The cost of borrowing for the scheme is rising too, as our national credit rating starts to nose-dive because of you-know-what.

[TaplowGreen]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)

The chairman of the High Speed 2 rail project has reportedly warned that its cost could rise by £30bn.

HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) chairman Allan Cook has written to the Department for Transport to say the high-speed line cannot be delivered within its £56bn budget, according to the Financial Times.

No doubt that will come as a shock to somebody, and will be seized upon as ammunition in the battle to stop HS2. That £56 billion figure was promulgated a long time ago, when the pound was still worth something in the places where we will be sourcing materials for the project, not forgetting the trains themselves. The cost of borrowing for the scheme is rising too, as our national credit rating starts to nose-dive because of you-know-what.

I don't suppose it comes as a shock to many as the £56 billion figure has been under question for many months , if not years as ridiculously optimistic - £100 billion has for some time been suggested as a more likely figure. The rail industry seems basically unable to deliver projects anywhere approaching on time or budget - Crossrail is another example, years overdue and many billions overspent, feeble excuses from those in charge on last night's news (who retain similarly bloated pay deals)

These are breathtaking sums of money for a project which splits opinion as to its value. The continued viability of  HS2 has to be called into question - arguably it's a vanity project and monies could be spent far better elsewhere on the railways and other competing demands.

I suspect at the least it will be drastically scaled back.

[Red Squirrel]

I suspect at the least it will be drastically scaled back.

Difficult to know how it could be scaled back drastically, really - there may be scope for a bit more cheeseparing, but at some stage it would cease to be a high-speed railway, at which point probably everyone would agree that there was no point in doing it. And then what?

[Electric train]

I suspect at the least it will be drastically scaled back.

There has been scaling back already, the top speed has been dropped.  Its possible they may slow down the Old Oak Common - Euston part although that would leave a capacity issue as OCC would not have the same number of platform as Euston.

Part of the cost rise is the increase in the number and length of the tunnel sections.

I have to question how much political dithering has added to the cost and will add in the future; as soon as our political machine decides it needs to be involved in the decision making they add delay which equal more money

[CyclingSid]

As I am sure anybody who has worked on a "government contract" will know, part of mission creep and cost inflation is tinkering. Ministers, senior civil servants, etc. are always going and can you just change this or add this.

I remember doing trials on a bit of kit that was supposed to be man-portable, by the time it got to us it was two-gorilla portable.

[SandTEngineer]

Latest update on the OOC^▸ (Old Oak Common (depot)) site: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/major-demolition-milestone-at-hs2s-old-oak-common-site-as-great-western-sheds-cleared

[ellendune]

Latest update on the OOC^▸ (Old Oak Common (depot)) site: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/major-demolition-milestone-at-hs2s-old-oak-common-site-as-great-western-sheds-cleared

I note that DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) uses the American spelling "meters" for the unit of measurement rather than  the English "metres". Is this a deliberate anti-European policy from the new Secretary of State?

I doubt if JRM would approve.  He would probably insist on the measurements being given in cubits.

[TaplowGreen]

Interesting article for those who emphasize the environmental credentials of rail....HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) (if it goes ahead) would cause the biggest deforestation since WW1.

https://www.pressreader.com/uk/daily-express/20190730/281900184816605