HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion

[whole diary]

[stuving]

I have never been against building more capacity.

How about a new network of lines for long distance trains only, with a design speed of 200Kmh, no slow trains. This is not high speed, and will be a lot cheaper than HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)). Build with tunnels where possible and integrate into existing cities outside of the current main station, but close enough to allow|encourage local fast transit systems to develop. The saved budget could help kickstart proper local transit systems within the UKs^▸ (United Kingdom) large metropolitan areas.

But would it be a lot cheaper than HS2 ? I rather doubt it.

According to HS2, 9% cheaper. They were asked to cost that alternative following the High speed rail international benchmarking study, which ought to inform the current discussion. Of course you don't have to accept their figure (or PwC's) without question.

It's the same one I also posted a link to on another thread since, while it contains material specific to HS^▸ (High Speed (short for HSS^▸ (High Speed Services) High Speed Services)) rail, most of it applies to any rail project.

[TaplowGreen]

Figure now closer to £100 billion rather than £50 billion

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2018/09/08/time-scrap-hs21/

For what, though? Most of the article is paywalled, but John Armitt is talking about 'additional upgrades'; do these have additional benefits?

Here's the full article;

It’s hard to think of a more over-priced, underwhelming project than High Speed 2 (HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))). A new poll finds that a plurality of the public is against it: 38 to 26 per cent, with opposition much higher in some regions. The financial figures are astonishing. Last month, the Telegraph reported that £4.1 billion has already been spent on it, that the official cost is put at £56 billion, but that Sir John Armitt, the infrastructure tsar, believes another £43 billion may have to be spent on additional upgrades to make the investment worthwhile.
The total potential end cost – discounting likely overspends – is approaching £100 billion. That’s three years of defence spending, or almost a year of financing NHS England.
With so many more people working from home – it is generally agreed that flexible patterns are the future – why obsess about improving what is essentially a commuter route to the capital?
HS2 is a classic example of a politician’s dream turned mad: precious time and resources are redirected to chasing a high-profile folly. If Britain really has all that money to spend, why not direct it towards improving the existing rail network, which is in an abysmal state in many parts of the country? How about investing cash in the motorways and roads? Or what about telecommunications? It is estimated that just to compete with Japan or Korea, we need to spend £30 billion upgrading Britain’s telecommunications network to full fibre. Indeed, with so many more people working from home – it is generally agreed that flexible patterns are the future – why obsess about improving what is essentially a commuter route to the capital?
The time has come to pull HS2. If nothing else, the money is better earmarked for the challenges and opportunities of Brexit – not this white elephant on wheels.

[ellendune]

Yes well perhaps the Telegraph should ask Talgo (a private company) why it is spending all that money on a factory in Longannet to make new trains when they could spend it on the office party or more bonus for the directors. 

The simple answer that if they spent their investors capital on revenue expenditure those investors, who were expecting the company to get a return on the capital invested, would sack the board.  HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) is an investment from which the country expects to get a return - like it did with selling the HS1^▸ (High Speed line 1 - St Pancras to Channel Tunnel) concession just after it was built!

You would expect the Telegraph whose readership should include many businesspeople to understand this simple fact!

[TaplowGreen]

Yes well perhaps the Telegraph should ask Talgo (a private company) why it is spending all that money on a factory in Longannet to make new trains when they could spend it on the office party or more bonus for the directors. 

The simple answer that if they spent their investors capital on revenue expenditure those investors, who were expecting the company to get a return on the capital invested, would sack the board.  HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) is an investment from which the country expects to get a return - like it did with selling the HS1^▸ (High Speed line 1 - St Pancras to Channel Tunnel) concession just after it was built!

You would expect the Telegraph whose readership should include many businesspeople to understand this simple fact!

If Corbyn wins a General Election and renationalises the railways as he has promised, to whom would the HS2 concession be sold, and how/how long would it take for the return on a £100 billion investment of taxpayers money to be realised?

[mjones]

The case for HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) has nothing to do with Corbyn's nationalisation policies (Some of us would prefer "Where's" Jeremy Cornyn to be focusing on more urgent things right now anyway). It is based on an appraisal of a wide range of direct and indirect benefits,  to users, to the risk network,  to the economy,  to society and the environment. There are arguments to be had about the details of how that case is made, but the Telegraph article doesn't actually consider it at all, it simply groups together a list of unsupported and often unconnected assertions.

The additional 43 bn referred to is almost certainly local transport schemes that connect with Hs2, but which,  as II says, have benefits of their own, and are l
Almost certainly needed anyway.

[ellendune]

Yes well perhaps the Telegraph should ask Talgo (a private company) why it is spending all that money on a factory in Longannet to make new trains when they could spend it on the office party or more bonus for the directors. 

The simple answer that if they spent their investors capital on revenue expenditure those investors, who were expecting the company to get a return on the capital invested, would sack the board.  HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) is an investment from which the country expects to get a return - like it did with selling the HS1^▸ (High Speed line 1 - St Pancras to Channel Tunnel) concession just after it was built!

You would expect the Telegraph whose readership should include many businesspeople to understand this simple fact!

If Corbyn wins a General Election and renationalises the railways as he has promised, to whom would the HS2 concession be sold, and how/how long would it take for the return on a £100 billion investment of taxpayers money to be realised?

Good point, but if a sale is of benefit to a private company then it should also produce a return to a Nationalised one. Always assuming that politicians can learn to keep their hands off and let these businesses run themselves like a private company as they do in continental Europe, where provided they are run in the same way that a holding company normally runs subsidiaries (They let the management get on with it as long as they produce the agreed results).

[Red Squirrel]

....a classic example of a politician’s dream turned mad: precious time and resources are redirected to chasing a high-profile folly

Interesting that the same piece also mentions Brexit. You may see a parallel; I couldn't possibly comment.

If Corbyn wins a General Election...

Then the Tories will sell it next time they get back in. Who knows; by then they may have rediscovered to concept of 'competence', and actually make some money...

[TaplowGreen]

....a classic example of a politician’s dream turned mad: precious time and resources are redirected to chasing a high-profile folly

Interesting that the same piece also mentions Brexit. You may see a parallel; I couldn't possibly comment.

If Corbyn wins a General Election...

Then the Tories will sell it next time they get back in. Who knows; by then they may have rediscovered to concept of 'competence', and actually make some money...

Ah, if only macroeconomics were that simple........

[grahame]

From Auto Express

'Why build HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) for £403m per mile when a road costs £10m per mile?'

With HS2 costs spiralling, Mike Rutherford asks if money should be put into roads instead

Normally I’m not the sort who kicks someone or something when he/it is down. But with HS2 – the proposed alternative to normal trains, cars, buses, coaches and planes – normality goes out the window.

The crackpot project has barely begun, yet we’re already seeing financial anomalies, lack of logic and annihilation of the homes/communities/countryside in its path.

[ellendune]

From Auto Express

'Why build HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) for £403m per mile when a road costs £10m per mile?'

With HS2 costs spiralling, Mike Rutherford asks if money should be put into roads instead

Normally I’m not the sort who kicks someone or something when he/it is down. But with HS2 – the proposed alternative to normal trains, cars, buses, coaches and planes – normality goes out the window.

The crackpot project has barely begun, yet we’re already seeing financial anomalies, lack of logic and annihilation of the homes/communities/countryside in its path.

The first question I ask is where does the £10m per mile figure come from?  What sort of road? The improvements to M4 Junction 16 Cost £10m alone with no new bridges! The A1(M) Leeming to Barton improvement is estimated to cost £400m for 12 miles. That just converts an existing dual carriageway to motorway.

If of course it was going to include a significant amount of tunnelling then A303 Stonehenge by-Pass will cost £1.6bn for 7 miles! That's not even motorway standard and its currently estimated at £230m per mile!

Construct a new urban motorway (e.g. at the Birmingham and London End with huge land costs then thats even more

And what if you deduct the cost of stations from HS2?  Since road users pay for their own. 

We need to compare like with like here!

[Red Squirrel]

We need to compare like with like here!

I'm not sure that would be Mr Rutherford's style.

Moderately amused by his description of Chris Grayling as '...train-spotter-cum-part-time Transport Secretary'... wow; that's an interesting view!

[Lee]

Personally, I'm still trying to square the vision I have of Grahame Clarkson flicking through the Auto Express and picking that story out for us 

[TaplowGreen]

From today's Sunday Telegraph;

HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) gagging deals are keeping residents in the dark about new high-speed line, report says.

The company behind the HS2 rail link is gagging local authorities with non-disclosure agreements that keep residents in the dark, a new report states.
The major review of England’s planning system warns HS2 Ltd is stoking resentment among communities who discover their councils are prevented from revealing details about the construction of the high-speed line.
The Sunday Telegraph has learnt that 26 local authorities across the country have signed NDAs^▸ (Non-Disclosure Agreement) with the company at the early planning stage.
The authorities involved include Warwickshire, Staffordshire and North Yorkshire county councils.
Nick Raynsford, the former Labour planning minister who carried out the review for the Town and Country Planning Association, said the practice was fuelling a “corrosive sense on the part of the public, that planning is no longer protecting their interests”.
His report says the panel received “a great deal of evidence” from communities affected by the HS2 project.
Their concerns had four “distinct aspects”, including “the widespread use of confidentiality agreements by the HS2 company”.
“These agreements … may serve a legitimate purpose in the eyes of those charged with the delivery of the project, but they have created real anger among local politicians and even more resentment from affected communities when they have discovered their existence,” the panel wrote.
The report quotes one anonymous council leader who said the NDAs “create a sense that the public are a constituency to be kept in the dark until such a time as their voice is effectively meaningless”.
“Whatever the commercial benefits of such agreements, they are not in the public interest,” the leader said.
A list disclosed under the Freedom of Information Act states that 28 NDAs were in force in April, all but one of which became effective after 2013 and have no end date.

An HS2 spokesman said: “Non-disclosure agreements help to avoid placing homes and businesses in unnecessary blight, protect commercially sensitive information, and help protect the personal information of those potentially affected.”

[stuving]

And in today's Sunday Times (Business bit) "HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) delayed by a year as budget balloons".

But first, look back at this from New Civil Engineer in June:

HS2 civils design deadline pushed back eight months
High Speed 2 (HS2) civils contractors have been given an extra eight months to adapt their designs to meet target costs, New Civil Engineer can reveal.

New Civil Engineer understands that HS2 bosses have pushed back the notice to proceed (NTP) deadline from November until June 2019.

The additional time has been given to allow the contractors to cut costs on the project, which New Civil Engineer reported last week were currently coming in around £1bn above the target cost.

The main civils works contracts are divided into two stages, with HS2 giving the NTP at the end of stage one which focusses on concept/ scheme design.

The NTP would then allow contractors to start detailed design and construction, which is scheduled to begin “in early 2019”.

Stage one has been divided into six “checkpoints”. At the end of the sixth checkpoint, which was originally scheduled for the end of November, contractors must produce a design to a “defendable target price”.

The initial over budget costs are believed to have been submitted as part of the third checkpoint, which was scheduled for the end of April.

This expected contractors to produce “scheme design maturity for whole life cost model”, 50% to 60% of the high risk design and 100% of the elements design.

Following the initial costings, New Civil Engineer understands that HS2 bosses had originally postponed the NTP until February 2019. However contractors were contacted last week about the increased deadline.

It is understood that the initial cost estimates for all four of the joint ventures working on the seven packages have come in over budget.

While one source said that the collective price was coming in at “around £1.2bn” over budget, another said that some bids were “as much as 30% to 40% higher” than their individual target price.

A spokesperson for HS2 maintained that the project “remains on track, and within [the] original cost package”.

Contractors were appointed in July last year to come up with a cost to build phase one of the line which runs from Euston Station in London to Birmingham Curzon Street.

It is not known if the later date for the notice to proceed will impact on the opening date of the line.

Now, if the haggling over the final cost hasn't produced the right number (£6.6Bn) yet, so that date on June 2019 is likely to drift back to October - that would provide all the inputs needed for the ST article. After all, given hearsay figures of £1.2Bn and 30-40%, any ST journalist should be able to come up with "about £10 billion".

But we'll see - hearsay and gossip are often true, after all.

[broadgage]

"HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) Chairman, sir Terry Morgan, expects to be sacked"

According to BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) news website, and presumably other media also. Little information as to why he expects this. He has only been chairman for a few months.