A very interesting article, and well worth a read. Also refreshing to see the evidence that the rail industry is no worse than any other for cost and time overruns, even if that doesn’t bode well for
HS2▸ and future projects.
It is very interesting indeed. I have another explanation that isn't too different.
Railway Man (RM): "We need a new railway, because the current one is based on the capacity we thought we would need when we last looked at it in 1963."
Secretary of State for Transport (SoS): "Blimey, have things changed since then? I hadn't noticed."
RM: "I have mentioned it before, but you keep getting changed, sometimes a different man, sometimes a different party."
SoS: "True, now you mention it. As it's so urgent, I shall act swiftly and decisively, and immediately commission a report to give recommendations just after the next election. "
RM: "That's been done three times. They all said we need a new railway."
SoS: "It sounds expensive. Find a cheaper way of accomplishing the same result."
RM: "We've done that twice. We still need a new railway."
SoS: "Bugger, I suppose we do. I'll have a word with the Prime Minister and Chancellor."
SoS: "Right, I've spoken to them. They think that a new railway could open up huge swathes of the north of England to new industry, and most importantly, win them votes. They are in favour, so how much will it cost?"
RM: "Double what it would have cost if we had built it when I first mentioned it, but half what it will cost if you dither for a few more years."
SoS: "That's still a lot of money. Make it a cheaper slower railway llike they have in Spain."
RM: "Spain has some brilliant new high speed trains that make ours look rubbish."
SoS: "WHAT??? We can't have that! Make ours better, faster, prettier, more frequent, better buffet serving the best of British food! Do it NOW!"
RM: "Got it. So you want a trolley selling warm beer, cold tea, and curry."
SoS: "That's it! But the Daily Mail won't like the cost estimate. Lower it."
RM: "How?"
SoS: "Use smaller numbers. We're not paying for it all in one lump sum, so it won't matter. We can blame Labour if we lose the next election, and the Liberal Democrats if we win. Make it, oh, I don't know - how old are you?"
RM: "54."
SoS: "Good. Make it £54 million - sorry £54 billion - and draw up some clever sums that arrive at that figure. This is an essential infrastructure project that will make Britain look ever so good!"
(Later, after the next election)
RM: "We need a new railway. Still."
SoS: "The new Prime Minister and Chancellor are right behind it, as it doesn't go through their constituencies. This is an essential infrastructure project that will make Britain look ever so good. Carry on!"
RM: "That fake price tag looks a bit dodgy. Shall I give the press thetrue figure?"
SoS: "Good god, man, have you taken leave of your senses? Of course not! Add a bit on maybe."
(Later, after another election)
RM: "We need a new railway."
SoS: "The Prime Minister is still behind it, as it doesn't go through her constituency, and might win more votes for her than it loses. Carry on. This is an essential infrastructure project that will make Britain look ever so good!"
(Later, after a leadership election)
RM: "We need a new railway. We've started building, and spent £7 billion so far."
SoS: "How much will this railway cost altogether?"
RM: "My age, my wife's age, plus the age of the cat. But this is an essential infrastructure project that will make Britain look ever so good!"
SoS: "No it isn't, it's a white elephant, a vanity project that could lose our new clown Prime Minister some votes. Besides, he needs the money to hide the cost of his new policies. Better add your neighbour's age to that figure to make it look bad."
And so on...
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