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Author Topic: HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion  (Read 491733 times)
ChrisB
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« Reply #1545 on: October 05, 2023, 14:52:26 »

There are several reopenings now in its place...some experts argue that this is a better way of improving rail
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grahame
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« Reply #1546 on: October 05, 2023, 15:33:20 »

There are several reopenings now in its place...some experts argue that this is a better way of improving rail

Indeed and that's switching from one rail spend to another rai spend. But, hang on, that's not we're looking at.

Let's say previous budget plans for capital investment in year 202x were:
12 billion on roads
12 billion on rail

Now - let's save 6 billion on the rail budget by cancelling HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) and spread it across other transport projects.  Sound fair but look at the result:
15 billion on roads
9 billion on rail

and it looks like a lot less fair.  In my example figures, the government has budgeted properly (one thinks) for a split between rail and road ... but then has given road another bite from the chunk fairly assigned to rail.

Vote-wise, I suspect you "buy" move votes in the run up to an election if you spend money on shorter term projects, or potentially one the will bear fruit at least in the medium term.

So - move 6 billion from rail to other rail, and it's arguable.  Move 6 billion from rail to a 50/50 split, and you have given road, in effect, two bites of the cherry. And it's no longer arguable.
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didcotdean
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« Reply #1547 on: October 05, 2023, 16:10:57 »

...£100 million in funding for a Mass Transit system: to revolutionise travel in and around Bristol.

MetroBus, the scheme that slightly improved travel in and around some parts of Bristol, cost £294 million. The estimated costs for a Mass Transit system as outlined in Future4West are somewhere between £7 billion and £18 billion.

I sometimes think that governments rely on the fact that 'million' and 'billion' sound similar...

This £100 million funding for a Bristol mass transit system has been deleted from today's version of the document, along with some other elements such as reopening of the of the Leamside Line. Something else might be gone by tomorrow.
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Red Squirrel
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« Reply #1548 on: October 05, 2023, 16:18:01 »

...This £100 million funding for a Bristol mass transit system has been deleted from today's version of the document...

Well that makes sense. According to Network North (which, intriguingly, includes Tavistock):

Quote
Only one core city outside London - Bristol – is more productive than the UK (United Kingdom) average.

The subtext, presumably, being " ...but we can soon put a stop to that!"
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TaplowGreen
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« Reply #1549 on: October 05, 2023, 16:49:47 »

.....and so it continues.....

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67021225
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Mark A
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« Reply #1550 on: October 05, 2023, 16:58:59 »

This £100 million funding for a Bristol mass transit system has been deleted from today's version of the document, along with some other elements such as reopening of the of the Leamside Line. Something else might be gone by tomorrow.

Original has been archived here, thanks Waybackmachine:

https://web.archive.org/web/20231004123635/https://www.gov.uk/government/news/find-out-about-every-new-transport-project-in-your-region

Mark

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Mark A
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« Reply #1551 on: October 05, 2023, 18:26:06 »

There's now a petition to parliament: don't axe Birmingham-Manchester line of HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)).

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/644999

Mark
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JayMac
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« Reply #1552 on: October 05, 2023, 18:30:26 »

Fantastic news that HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) will be extended...

...from Old Oak Common to Euston.
.....and so it continues.....

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67021225

My post, whilst tongue in cheek, was somewhat premature!

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Mark A
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« Reply #1553 on: October 05, 2023, 21:11:30 »


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They have conspicuously made this decision with no reference to others and even to its own department for transport.

Errr, they held a cabinet meeting before his speech at which Mark Harper was involved. There is a video also that features Number 10, so it wasn't a decision taken on the spot.

This morning, Mark Harper was prepared to rock up to *shudders* GB (Great Britain) News, and state:

'The facts have changed. Travel patterns have changed post-pandemic. Train travel is down by 50%'.

His figure of 50% is not supported by e.g. the Office for Rail and Road, something that rather shakes ones faith in his integrity.

Chart 1.2 in the ORR» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) document has the numbers.

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2207/passenger-rail-usage-jan-mar-2023.pdf

Here's the GB news clip.

https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1709842566542221385

Mark

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ChrisB
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« Reply #1554 on: October 05, 2023, 21:19:38 »

The only part of train travel I can see from that report that has shrunk by 50% are season tickets - down from 34% of all rail travel journeys to just 15% to March 23. Sobering, that.
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TaplowGreen
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« Reply #1555 on: October 06, 2023, 07:20:02 »

The only part of train travel I can see from that report that has shrunk by 50% are season tickets - down from 34% of all rail travel journeys to just 15% to March 23. Sobering, that.

Which no doubt contributes to the 30% drop in revenue illustrated in the same report. Even more sobering.
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ellendune
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« Reply #1556 on: October 06, 2023, 11:09:54 »

There are reports from Faisal Islam on Twitter that Sunak has now authorised the removal of the safeguarding on the route and the sale of the land no longer required. 

In consequence Kier Starmer is quoted as saying he can’t commit to reversing HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) cancellation because of what he calls “wrecking ball” tactics from PM.

“I can’t stand here and commit to reversing that decision, they’ve taken wrecking ball to it”.

If we are not careful we will end up with a high speed line from Old Oak Common to Birmingham and Litchfield that has so little terminal capacity that it is of little benefit to anyone.

Furthermore this will be latest in a chain of decisions that increase the cost of completing the line at some time in the future. 

He is obviously determined that HS2 phase 1 should always be a monument to the Conservative Party's complete incompetence as a governing party.
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ellendune
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« Reply #1557 on: October 06, 2023, 11:25:58 »

Criticism from  Ian Dunt of the so called replacement package of investment

Quote
It'd be awful to have a PM who didn't look at the evidence, barely understood the regions he governed, denied parliament a voice & then stitched it up so that no future govt could undo the damage he inflicted. But that is precisely the PM we've got

The core element in what happened this week is not that shitshow of a transport document. It's the sale of the land.

He goes on on the link Sunak's stitch-up Some extracts below:

Quote
The prime minister's Network North document might genuinely be in the top ten most half-arsed embarrassing policy documents we've seen from a British government in our lifetime. That’s a highly competitive market to muscle your way into and yet somehow by God he's done it.

Quote
Indeed they would. It would terrible to live under a prime minister who scrapped major infrastructure projects and then quickly scrabbled together some back-of-a-fag-packet nonsense to pretend they still had a viable transport strategy. It would be awful to have a prime minister who lied about what he was doing, didn't look at the evidence, barely understood the regions he governed, denied parliament a voice on the changes and then stitched it up so that no future government could undo the damage he had inflicted. But that, unfortunately, is precisely the prime minister we've got.

Quote
He should have written it in crayon. Several projects he announced for funding literally already existed. The Nottingham metro extension to Clifton South opened eight years ago. The metro to Manchester Airport was built in 2014. Others have been announced numerous times before with no reason to believe they will ever be completed. The A1 upgrade has been promised by every Conservative administration since 2010. The Transpennine Route Upgrade between Manchester and York was first announced in 2011.





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Mark A
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« Reply #1558 on: October 06, 2023, 11:42:37 »

There are reports from Faisal Islam on Twitter that Sunak has now authorised the removal of the safeguarding on the route and the sale of the land no longer required.  <snip>

Phase 2a immediately... **Ghost of Critchell Down has entered the coffeeshop* ...and phase 2b next summer when the government's intentions towards the Liverpool Leeds link have been scrapped, I mean, firmed up - HS2b and the ghost of HS3 have interdependencies.

This article below from the Greengauge 21 group states among other things that 98% of the land transactions for 2a are complete and while the project team hadn't been allowed to start physical work (several enabling services diversions on 2a *have* happened as they were a fit for other industry timetables) they'd brought the preps for 2a to a state in which the physical work can be done very quickly.

http://www.greengauge21.net/hs2-curtailed/

Mark
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TonyK
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« Reply #1559 on: October 06, 2023, 15:24:33 »


Looking at the list for the South West at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/find-out-about-every-new-transport-project-in-your-region it includes
Quote
Opening more railway lines: between Cullompton and Wellington.
When in reality it will be reopening the two stations on the existing line.


That one seems to have been mended on the website, possibly at a cost of thousands. A shame really, I was looking forward to a couple of new platforms at Tivvy Parkway and an extra twin tunnel at Whiteball. If you know anyone who wants 500 "Four Track Now!" T-shirts at a discount, please give them my details.

This whole thing is a bit of a mess to put it mildly. It's hard not to sound political when looking at the details, so apologies in advance if I overstep the mark. But the first thing that strikes me is that someone wanting to position himself as the person who can make the big long-term decisions doesn't advance his cause much by scrapping one of the few big long-term projects we have in the country, and on the basis of short-term data if it wasn't populist vote hunting. Most of the railway is seeing passenger levels back up to the levels that were in place before the pandemic, yet the justification includes the bland statement that we are doing things differently now. Maybe we are this year, but a lot of employers are calling staff back into the office from the desk at home where they slog away in their nightwear (if they have any) between Bargain Hunt and mowing the lawn. HS2 (The next High Speed line(s)) was intended to cope with figures that had been rising steadily over a couple of decades, not a year or two of exceptional numbers. If the extra capacity was ever needed, it's gone now for the long term, especially if a rushed fire-sale of CPO'd land along the proposed route to Manchester is put in place before the next election.

Next, where is "every penny" of the saved money going to be spent? Potholes? Why does an advanced first world country with a thriving economy have so many potholes in the first place? This is routine maintenance work that should have been done by councils and the highways agency before any big problems arose. That wasn't a result of HS2 being built. Electrification between Parkway, Temple Meads and Chippenham? Should have been done (being charitable) four years ago. Being truthful, it should have been done in the 1970s, 80s at the latest. Wellington and Cullompton stations? These have been the subject of long-standing campaigns, and were very close to done deals already. Bere Alston to Tavistock? Should have been well under way, if not finished. Manchester Airport tram link? Opened 2014. Leeds tram network? Cancelled in 2004, along with Bristol's, which now we mention it, why hasn't Bristol been offered another go? There is talk of expanding MetroBust, but the money should really be spent on improving public transport instead. MetroBust gave us a few new fast-ish bus routes at the cost of other more established services that went between the same points A and B, but gave good options to people wanting to travel shorter distances between them. It also rather soaked up some of the diminishing pool of drivers, which is as big an issue as anything in Bristol bus matters.

A lot of the proposed improvements were going to be done anyway, some of them building on the new line between Birmingham and Manchester. The savings will not be as much as claimed because of this. A lot of civil engineering staff will find the diary a little emptier, even if redundancies can be avoided. There will also be substantial costs where contracts have to be paid off, although I don't think much has been signed as yet for the Northern leg. Alstom were already looking jittery about cash flow, and losing any of the proposed HS2 fleet will hit them in UK (United Kingdom).

The biggest loss is reputational. We have shown that mighty Britain, birthplace of the industrial revolution and rail travel, can't build a high speed line like they can in countries all over the world. Why should a big multinational company spend time and the ransoms of many kings working up proposals that can be binned in the twinkling of an eye? That isn't just railways, but everything, and we don't seem to do very much infrastructure for ourselves these days.

Worst of all, anyone rejoicing in the windfall for their community in the Prime Minister's Cancellation Honours List should remember that a tram line or new local station will be a lot easier to cancel than a national high speed rail project.
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