HS2 - Government proposals, alternative routes and general discussion

[whole diary]

[TaplowGreen]

A clearer and perhaps less ambiguous question is the one posed by YouGov over the last few years;

"Do you support or oppose plans to build a new High Speed rail line linking London, Birmingham and Manchester?"

The figure for those who indicate support has generally been around 25% for several years now.

[IndustryInsider]

I think the yougov pills are fairly indicative.

As well as around 25% support, if you factor in the ‘don’t know’ and the ‘don’t cares’ you get to around two thirds either supporting or not sure, with one third against.

In other words, opinions are fairly evenly split.

[TaplowGreen]

I think the yougov pills are fairly indicative.

As well as around 25% support, if you factor in the ‘don’t know’ and the ‘don’t cares’ you get to around two thirds either supporting or not sure, with one third against.

In other words, opinions are fairly evenly split.

That is one interpretation in order to suit a narrative,  yes.

The next time I phone Mrs TG late at night to ask her if she minds if I have "just one more pint" and she tells me she doesn't know and doesn't care, I will be sure to interpret that as tacit approval! 

[onthecushions]

If one asks a large population what their view is about a matter that they know little about and which will affect only a minority, one will get a perfect, statistically significant result which of course is perfectly meaningless.

If you asked a railway General Manager accountable to a Board of Directors whose access to funds is limited only to commercial loans whether a scheme is advisable or viable, then you would have a meaningful answer.

OTC

[IndustryInsider]

That is one interpretation in order to suit a narrative,  yes.

I thought it was worth fleshing out your post which only mentioned the 25% support part.  In the interest of balance I'll point out you could equally say three quarters are against or don't know/care with a quarter supporting it, and provide a link to the survey so everyone can interpret the data to suit whatever narrative they like, be it vehemently against like yourself, or generally in favour (but with significant reservations) like myself:  https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/support-for-high-speed-rail-hs2

The next time I phone Mrs TG late at night to ask her if she minds if I have "just one more pint" and she tells me she doesn't know and doesn't care, I will be sure to interpret that as tacit approval! 

As any self respecting man should following the famous Men Behaving Badly episode.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMAM49SAlsI

[TaplowGreen]

That is one interpretation in order to suit a narrative,  yes.

I thought it was worth fleshing out your post which only mentioned the 25% support part.  In the interest of balance I'll point out you could equally say three quarters are against or don't know/care with a quarter supporting it, and provide a link to the survey so everyone can interpret the data to suit whatever narrative they like, be it vehemently against like yourself, or generally in favour (but with significant reservations) like myself:  https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/support-for-high-speed-rail-hs2

The next time I phone Mrs TG late at night to ask her if she minds if I have "just one more pint" and she tells me she doesn't know and doesn't care, I will be sure to interpret that as tacit approval! 

As any self respecting man should following the famous Men Behaving Badly episode.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMAM49SAlsI

......ironically, I too would probably end up being unpopular, overdue & over budget in that scenario, quite possibly with some unpleasant environmental consequences too!

[eightonedee]

I thought it was worth fleshing out your post which only mentioned the 25% support part.  In the interest of balance I'll point out you could equally say three quarters are against or don't know/care with a quarter supporting it, and provide a link to the survey so everyone can interpret the data to suit whatever narrative they like, be it vehemently against like yourself, or generally in favour (but with significant reservations) like myself

Thanks II.

It looks like the correct clickbait headline should be "Substantial decline in opposition to HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) to Birmingham. Manchester and Leeds over last two years"!

[TonyK]

Interesting. 

I have the opposite opinion in that the business market is now very repressed and unlikely to recover to any great degree, and leisure travellers will want competitive pricing or they'll go by air or slower train. 

Or car. Me paying £250 or so for a return ticket to Lincolnshire on the three days annually when I have to visit the office makes sense when it's just me (and on expenses). In the event of me taking my wife and a couple of grandchildren, the car would offer significant enough cost benefit to overcome the faff of such a long drive.

The positives of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) apart from building rail infrastructure that will be around in 200 and more years.

It is employing a lot of people not only those involve in the actual construction but the supply chain many of those are British and the trains are likely to built here.
It is training a lot of Apprentices and Graduate Engineers.

We in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom), or at least our politicians are very short sighted they cannot think any further than the next election.  With the current melee to be the next PM tax cuts are the weapon of choice for most of the combatants which some will offer HS2 as a way to fund the cut in tax

Exactly. We hear enough about decisions made 60 years ago to scrap railways, and how things would have been better if we knew then what we know now, and had left well alone. Scrapping HS2 or bits of it would lead to exactly the same comments another 20-30 years down the line, even if, unlike the lines subjected to the Beeching cuts, it wasn't ever built. It would be a huge waste of a lot of money spent on planning those bits that have yet to see a shovel, and would leave the fate of everywhere the line was supposed to have gone through in limbo. Nothing else could be built there until someone says it is never going to happen, and settlements will be blighted like those in the path of Heathrow's putative third runway.

What the politicians are saying about spending and tax in the present war between the right wing of the Conservative party and the extreme right wing of the Conservative party is so much flim-flam, aimed only at sounded sufficiently Tory to gain the necessary majority among the 200,000 party members with a say in the matter. Once the successful candidate has made the victory speech and arranged for 10 Downing Street to be redecorated, he or she will be able to find that the previous Labour administration spent too much for the promised cuts to be made. I haven't heard HS2 mentioned in the various offers of policy.

[TaplowGreen]

I don't buy the "well we've gone this far and spent this much so we might as well finish it" argument - it does smack a little of desperation.

Taking a step back, objectively perhaps it's time for the Government and other stakeholders to take a timeout and reassess the whole project taking into account the fall off in demand for business travel post COVID and all other factors (cost, benefit/cost ratio including economic factors etc) - no-one could have anticipated this a few years ago, and the rolling stone of new working practices is only likely to gather pace.

Bits and pieces are being chopped off/descoped/rescoped/downgraded at the moment and maybe it would be better to take some time out to consider its future in the round.

Maybe it needs to change/be rescoped but surely that is better done on a holistic basis rather than staggering along based on assumptions that no longer apply with occasional limb being lopped off?

If £100+ billion (and rising) is to spent, surely it's best and incumbent to ensure that it's spent wisely for the nation as a whole?

[IndustryInsider]

When you say ‘take a timeout’ what do you mean?

[TonyK]

When you say ‘take a timeout’ what do you mean?

Hopefully not the Portishead standard "Let's put this off for yet another 6 months, then find out we still need it but the price has gone up 20%, although it's someone else's problem because I'm not going to be Transport Secretary by then". Infrastructure projects should never be decided like that, but unfortunately often are.

[ellendune]

I don't buy the "well we've gone this far and spent this much so we might as well finish it" argument - it does smack a little of desperation.

The economics quite clearly supports this approach.

If you stop the project you don't get any of the money spent back and you get no benefits.

So the economic choice is to spend the rest of the money and get all of the benefits or stop and get none. So provided the cost hasn't escalated more than you have spent the Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR^▸ (Benefit Cost Ratio)) has got better.

So lets take a hypothetical example.

If the original cost was going to be £100 and benefits were going to be £200.  BCR = 2

If at the time when £30 has been spent someone looks at whether to cancel the project.

The estimated cost is now £105, but £30 has been spent and is now lost so the cost to completion is £75. 

If £75 is spent then £200 benefits still accrue so the BCR of continuing is now 2.67! 

[IndustryInsider]

Not to mention the enormous cost of pausing construction and planning, stopping the supply chain, potentially losing thousands of skilled workers, whilst another detailed review is undertaken which might come to the same conclusions anyway.  Then having to restart it all, pushing costs up further, adding delay, risking contracts already signed etc.

Given how far it’s got it’s an absolute no-brainer to continue IMHO^▸ (in my humble opinion).  And I like the idea of the recently suggested Newark connection to the ECML^▸ (East Coast Main Line) to best recover from the partial cancellation of Phase 2 as a result of the Integrated Rail Plan last year:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-61274952.amp

[TonyK]

Not to mention the enormous cost of pausing construction and planning, stopping the supply chain, potentially losing thousands of skilled workers, whilst another detailed review is undertaken which might come to the same conclusions anyway.  Then having to restart it all, pushing costs up further, adding delay, risking contracts already signed etc.

Given how far it’s got it’s an absolute no-brainer to continue IMHO^▸ (in my humble opinion).  And I like the idea of the recently suggested Newark connection to the ECML^▸ (East Coast Main Line) to best recover from the partial cancellation of Phase 2 as a result of the Integrated Rail Plan last year:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-61274952.amp

Again, I agree. HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) is contentious, like nuclear power stations, gas and oil wells, new roads, and practically any infrastructure project costing more than a tenner. I am not saying press on at all costs in every case, because sometimes circumstances change. Much had been spent on the Grand Western Canal to connect Atlantic to Channel, but it was wisely cancelled with only a short section completed when the railways suddenly wrecked the market, as an example. With HS2, things haven't changed since the original scheme was developed, and it will be in service for centuries, or until matter teleportation arrives, whichever comes first. Opponents may seize upon the nosedive in numbers at the outset of Covid, but have been silent about the upturn other than to complain that there aren't enough trains and they are always full.

Get on with it, including the eastern part, and stop the cheese paring. Build the connection to WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line), one way or another, because it is a very good idea, will help Scotland gain benefit from the scheme, and was only stopped because of politics. The proposed changes at Manchester Piccadilly, removing the through station and having trains reversing and a shuttle bus to airport services, show how short-term financial worries can spoil a grand idea. There, the big issue is that the limitations imposed on the high-speed line will become obvious once operations commence, and the underground through station will have to be built anyway, but at a much higher cost.

[IndustryInsider]

HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) phase 2b rated "unachievable"

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/hs2/major-projects-body-brands-hs2-phase-2b-unachievable-19-07-2021/

This is the report in question......

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/infrastructure-and-projects-authority-annual-report-2021

In the following years report (thanks to eightonedee for drawing our attention to it in the East West Rail thread) the three aspects of HS2 have all improved their 'likelihood of achieving its aims and objectives':

* HS2 Phase 2b was RED last year for 'Successful delivery of the project appears to be unachievable' and is now AMBER for 'Successful delivery appears feasible but significant issues already exist, requiring management attention'.

* HS2 Phase 1 was AMBER/RED last year for 'Successful delivery of the project is in doubt, with major risks or issues apparent in a number of key areas' and is now AMBER for 'Successful delivery appears feasible but significant issues already exist, requiring management attention'.

* HS2 Phase 2a was AMBER last year for 'Successful delivery appears feasible but significant issues already exist, requiring management attention' and is now GREEN for 'Successful delivery of the project on time, budget and quality appears highly likely and there are no major outstanding issues that at this stage appear to threaten delivery significantly'.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1092181/IPA_AR2022.pdf

Phase 2b's scope has been altered significantly since the two reports, though it looks like data was submitted in March, so that's before the Golborne Link section was removed. 

Perhaps they'll all be green next year, or perhaps they'll all be crimson.  Either way, it's difficult to put too much confidence behind a report with Rees-Mogg grinning at you on the first page!