Great Western Main Line electrification - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[IndustryInsider]

Bloody EU^» (European Union - about) legislation!  Though with a construction period of around 5 years (assuming the design work already would still be valid, and construction could start pretty much as soon as the franchise is let), would still mean 10 years to reap the harvest.  I am just speculating of course, but the Government (and I think Mark Hopwood) are on record as saying that it's an approach they've looked at.

As ever, time will tell.

[ChrisB]

I'm sure it'll be part of their renewal bid - if they wish to do so, of course!

[inspector_blakey]

Maybe the title of this thread in the meantime should lose the "gets go-ahead" untill we know what's happening for sure.

I would be inclined to leave it alone for now. The current situation is that electrification received the go-ahead last summer. Although there's a strong argument to be made that it might be cancelled or diluted, all suggestions to that effect are, for the moment, pure conjecture, no matter how well informed the source.

[Electric train]

Maybe the title of this thread in the meantime should lose the "gets go-ahead" untill we know what's happening for sure.

I would be inclined to leave it alone for now. The current situation is that electrification received the go-ahead last summer. Although there's a strong argument to be made that it might be cancelled or diluted, all suggestions to that effect are, for the moment, pure conjecture, no matter how well informed the source.

Indeed the NR^» (Network Rail - home page) team are still working the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) electrification up to GRIP^▸ (Guide to Railway Investment Projects) stage 3 (Option selection)

[Chafford1]

According to the Financial Times - the go ahead for GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) electrification together with the next stage of Thameslink is expected next Thursday - albeit a curtailed electrification scheme:

'Thameslink case pressed by business

By Jim Pickard, Political Correspondent Financial Times

Published: November 4 2010 00:02 | Last updated: November 4 2010 00:02

Business leaders in London have written to the government urging ministers to give the all-clear to order 1,000 carriages for the Thameslink north-south rail scheme.

Lady Valentine, head of London First, has urged Philip Hammond to make a commitment to the whole project when the transport secretary authorises a wider package of transport initiatives next Thursday.

It is widely expected that the second phase of the ^5.5bn Thameslink scheme ^ including the trains order ^ will be approved in the announcement, which forms part of the coalition^s attempt to shift the narrative on to economic growth.

Yet Labour figures say they will be watching the announcement closely for signs of cost-cutting and delays in the small print.

Lady Valentine is concerned that the ^1.1bn order could be scaled back from its original 1,000 carriages to make savings. There are also industry expectations that the estimated ^500m upgrade of London Bridge station ^ part of Thameslink ^ will be reduced to cut costs.

^Thameslink, the ^north-south Crossrail^, will bring precious new capacity to London^s congested core before 2020, and relief to millions of rail commuters who start their journeys outside the capital,^ wrote Lady Valentine. ^A decision to proceed with the modernisation of Thameslink would be met with relief by hard-pressed commuters and would be welcomed by businesses across and beyond the capital.^

The group is concerned that if fewer carriages were ordered it could have an impact on Network Rail^s attempts to alleviate congestion on London^s public transport network.

The Department for Transport won a better-than-expected settlement in the comprehensive spending review, with capital spending falling only slightly from ^7.7bn this year to ^7.5bn in four years^ time. Crucial to that decision was George Osborne^s belief that transport schemes were a key component of economic growth.

The chancellor said in the review that four crucial rail projects were still under review, including the entire Thameslink upgrade and a separate order for hundreds of carriages. The schemes include the electrification of several lines and a ^7.5bn order for Intercity Express trains from Agility Trains, an Hitachi-led consortium.

Officials are likely to approve the electrification of the Great Western line, a ^1bn scheme announced by the Labour government last year. However, the project is no longer expected to go as far west as Swansea, as previously envisaged.

Meanwhile, the Agility consortium is under pressure to cut the costs of its bid to build a new generation of intercity carriages, with ministers using the threat of alternative options to extract a better deal.

The alternatives, set out in Sir Andrew Foster^s review of the scheme, in-clude ^re-engineering^ the existing Intercity 125 trains or buying cheaper electric trains.'

[willc]

Which is presumably a roundabout way of saying they expect the Welsh Assembly Government to cough up a hefty contribution if it wants wires under and west of the Severn...

[ChrisB]

Officials are likely to approve the electrification of the Great Western line, a ^1bn scheme announced by the Labour government last year. However, the project is no longer expected to go as far west as Swansea, as previously envisaged.

Eh? I thought it was only going to Newbury / Oxford in the original announcement?

[IndustryInsider]

I don't think anybody's officially announced anything have they?  That's why all this speculation is rife, contradictory, and not very helpful.  There is almost certainly frantic deals being struck behind closed doors, and If we end up with GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) electrification only to Bristol/Newbury and Oxford rather than Swansea as well then I think that would still be a massive result.  To say Mr. Hammond's speech is eagerly anticipated is something of an understatement!

[ChrisB]

I was referring to the plans of the previous Government. Did they not announce GW^▸ (Great Western) electrification plans as I mentioned?

[IndustryInsider]

Bristol and Swansea with spurs to Newbury/Oxford.  Various NR^» (Network Rail - home page) quotes have been made saying that just doing Newbury/Oxford would not be as cost effective.

[Electric train]

Bristol and Swansea with spurs to Newbury/Oxford.  Various NR^» (Network Rail - home page) quotes have been made saying that just doing Newbury/Oxford would not be as cost effective.

That is true, however I suspect that NR would still cease the opportunity if the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) electrification only did the services to Oxford and Newbury.  If the wires only went to say Oxford there would not need to be a grid intake at Didcot (or at least only lower capacity one) 

The National electrification team have been working on the Reading station area lately, more than just check that the remodeling is electrification friendly.  There is a thought that the MML^» (Midland Main Line. - about) may steal the march on the GW^▸ (Great Western) for intercity electrification

[ChrisB]

That is true, however I suspect that NR^» (Network Rail - home page) would still cease the opportunity

I guess you mean sieze.....

[paul7575]

Officials are likely to approve the electrification of the Great Western line, a ^1bn scheme announced by the Labour government last year. However, the project is no longer expected to go as far west as Swansea, as previously envisaged.

Eh? I thought it was only going to Newbury / Oxford in the original announcement?

No, it was Bristol, Swansea, Oxford and Newbury.   You were wrong on this on the 21st as well - which I think you then acknowledged in post #267...

Paul

[inspector_blakey]

More likely seize, I suspect

[Electric train]

That is true, however I suspect that NR^» (Network Rail - home page) would still cease the opportunity

I guess you mean sieze.....

More likely seize, I suspect

...... and take hold of

The speed at which the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) will be electrified will be a lot slower than Lord Adonis proclaimed, I would expect it to be a roll on program from Crossrail if it happens