Great Western Main Line electrification - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[Bmblbzzz]

and also the politics of serving the Welsh capital will have a bearing.

And I was just thinking to myself "It would surely be too cynical to suspect that this is partly down to post-Brexit Union-preserving politics."

[ChrisB]

This is the National Audit Office (NAO) view on the impact of the electrification delays on the rolling stock cascade:

{Diagram]
Does ordering extra AT300's for the Oxford route suggest that the electrification is not just delayed but effectively cancelled?

For this Government? Yes, I'd say so.

Other facts to be noted from that diagram -

 - 11 HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) retained till 2018 (and 180s(?) -I thought these *had* to go at end of 2017?)
 - 165s & 166s staying in TV until electrification complete in CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024)
 - Bi-modes now replacing 180s & HSTs for Dec18 TT change
 - 2 additional AT300s also ordered to keep hourly through services to Bedwyn
 - 153/150s retained in West until 2018 - impact on North services
 - 143s in Exeter decommissioned a year later in Dec18

[eightf48544]

What has happened to our planning, logistics and engineering expertise?

98 years ago my grandfather helped push a numerically superior German Army out of France in just 100 days.

The planning and logistics for that were enormous 1 million men in France. They make GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) electrification look trivial especially as nobody's shooting at the engineers.

[didcotdean]

The initial cost always smelt completely wrong to me. Sadly this has shown up that Network Rail had a poor understanding of its physical assets and capabilities and that the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) seemed to put its trust into it which was misplaced - although its shifting specification (if you can call it that) was significantly to blame too.

[1st fan]

This is the National Audit Office (NAO) view on the impact of the electrification delays on the rolling stock cascade:

{Diagram]
Does ordering extra AT300's for the Oxford route suggest that the electrification is not just delayed but effectively cancelled?

For this Government? Yes, I'd say so.

Other facts to be noted from that diagram -

 - 11 HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) retained till 2018 (and 180s(?) -I thought these *had* to go at end of 2017?)
 - 165s & 166s staying in TV until electrification complete in CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024)
 - Bi-modes now replacing 180s & HSTs for Dec18 TT change
 - 2 additional AT300s also ordered to keep hourly through services to Bedwyn
 - 153/150s retained in West until 2018 - impact on North services
 - 143s in Exeter decommissioned a year later in Dec18

Will they have to make the HST doors automatic and all the other stuff to make them compliant with the PRM^▸ (Persons with Reduced Mobility)-TSI regulations? I would guess the trains would meet most of the regs already but the doors would be a biggie.

[Tim]

The new regs only come in in 2020, so we could operate them as they are for a few years more.  There is also the possibility of a temporary derogation from the regulations.  This kind of temporary, unexpected delay that one might assume the derogations were designed for.   

[Tim]

.... I think that the trains would also need scrolling LED thingies to meet the regs.   There is also the matter of fitting retention toilets.  Although not related to the disability regs, NR^» (Network Rail - home page) has said that it wants track discharge to end by 2020.  It is of course NR who have screwed up here so it would be kind of poetic justice if one outcome was that their infrastructure was to continue to be c**ped on (although hardly fair to the wo/man in the track gang)

[Richard Fairhurst]

Other facts to be noted from that diagram -

 - 11 HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) retained till 2018 (and 180s(?) -I thought these *had* to go at end of 2017?)

It's a particularly confusing diagram. I don't think it's saying that the 180s are being retained. That said, AIUI^▸ (as I understand it) Hull Trains' fleet of 180s isn't yet spoken for, now that they too have ordered AT300s, so there's some room for manoeuvre there...

[grahame]

The NAO report (mirror) has a wealth of information ... so many things strike me ...

Electrifying the line from Maidenhead to Cardiff by December 2018 relies on the assumption that Network Rail can significantly increase mast installation and piling rates, compared with the rates it has achieved so far. Network Rail’s current target is to increase the number of piles installed each week from 62 in August 2016 to 195 piles by November 2016. The rate of mast installation is expected to increase from 55 per week to 191 per week over the same period. However, Network Rail is currently developing a new plan which it expects will mean it will install around 150 piles per week between November 2016 and March 2017, without delaying the completion of electrification any further. In early September 2016 Network Rail had completed 6,804 foundations, 44% of the total required. It had installed 3,438 masts (23% of the total) and 1,352 booms (15%).

[bobm]

They make GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) electrification look trivial especially as nobody's shooting at the engineers.

Without wishing to be disrespectful (my grandfather survived the First World War) perhaps it was the very fact that people were shooting at the engineers that sharpened the mind to the job in hand.

[grahame]

The NAO report (mirror) has a wealth of information ... so many things strike me ...

And an interesting diagram ...

[Adelante_CCT]

perhaps it was the very fact that people were shooting at the engineers that sharpened the mind to the job in hand.

What are you suggesting bobm? 

[simonw]

The NAO report (mirror) has a wealth of information ... so many things strike me ...

And an interesting diagram ...

Looking at the map, it would be interesting to know which parts carry the most traffic, passengers and trains.

I am not convinced that taking electrification of the line to Cardiff is more economically sensible than Bristol.

[Bmblbzzz]

The NAO report (mirror) has a wealth of information ... so many things strike me ...

Electrifying the line from Maidenhead to Cardiff by December 2018 relies on the assumption that Network Rail can significantly increase mast installation and piling rates, compared with the rates it has achieved so far. Network Rail’s current target is to increase the number of piles installed each week from 62 in August 2016 to 195 piles by November 2016. The rate of mast installation is expected to increase from 55 per week to 191 per week over the same period. However, Network Rail is currently developing a new plan which it expects will mean it will install around 150 piles per week between November 2016 and March 2017, without delaying the completion of electrification any further. In early September 2016 Network Rail had completed 6,804 foundations, 44% of the total required. It had installed 3,438 masts (23% of the total) and 1,352 booms (15%).

For a second I thought "electrification from Kent to Wales!" I do sometimes get Maidenhead and Maidstone mixed up... 

[stuving]

Looking at the map, it would be interesting to know which parts carry the most traffic, passengers and trains.

I am not convinced that taking electrification of the line to Cardiff is more economically sensible than Bristol.

I think you're missing the point. The map just shows where the work that the NAO report was about was, as originally proposed, to be done.

Cardiff is proceeding because its end date is in CP5^▸ (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019). Bristol isn't, as is has already been delayed by the resignalling work and can't be done in CP5. That's confirmed in the report to be the reason:

The Department has instructed Network Rail to defer electrification on some stretches
of the route for longer, reflecting between £146 million and £165 million of spending,
because it cannot meet the costs within the current funding package. It still intends to
electrify these sections, during the next rail investment period, which runs from April 2019
to March 2024. As a result, passengers in affected areas may have to wait longer to
see the full benefits of modernisation. These deferrals are intended to fund projects that
are considered critical, but were not allocated funding in the 2015 replan. Such critical
projects account for £72 million of the funding shortfall. The largest of these are:

• A new depot in Exeter (£36 million). The Department agreed to make funding
  available for this in March 2015, as part of the second franchise extension, known
  as a ‘direct award’.
• Work at Bristol East Junction (£15 million). Network Rail now expect that it will
  need to spend more on this project in the current rail investment period in order
  to complete it before this section of line is electrified.
• Platform extensions on the Cotswold Line, which are needed to allow the new
  Intercity Express Programme trains to stop at smaller stations (£13 million).
  The Department instructed Network Rail to carry out this work in August 2014.