Great Western Main Line electrification - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[Timmer]

Pity Paul Maynard didn't put some dates in his statement.

Can't think why 

[TonyK]

I concur. Having such multiple layers of "decision making" and funding does make for complexity. Some may say unnecessarily so!

[bobm]

For the record in the future, here is the complete statement from the minister

I wish to update the House on the programme of rail investment in the Great Western route and the steps we are taking to ensure this improves services to passengers while getting the best deal for taxpayers.

We are continuing to invest £2.8 billion in this electrification programme to provide faster journeys, more services, and better stations while providing new or upgraded trains for passengers, with thousands more seats, and increasing capacity for freight. It will improve the experience on over 100 million rail journeys each year, stimulating economic growth from London through the Thames Valley, to the Cotswolds, West Country and to South Wales.

It is a project unprecedented in scale that is building on and around ageing assets in constant use. This is an ambitious and challenging undertaking, but real progress is being made in delivering it.

Projects completed successfully this year include the digital upgrade of large sections of signalling to improve reliability, the modification of over 100 bridges and structures, flood alleviation work, significant improvements to the resilience of the Oxford route and the introduction of the first Great Western electric services between Hayes & Harlington to Paddington which run between some of the busiest peak services in the country.

Works on the Severn Tunnel this autumn made vital preparation for electrification between London and South Wales. Other enabling works include the progression of electrification towards the west, further re-signalling in Bristol, Cardiff and Cornwall, improvements at Bristol Temple Meads Station, enabling works at stations throughout the route, provision of better access for disabled passengers at selected stations, and enhancements to depots from West Ealing in the east to Penzance in the west.

We have been clear that there have been difficulties with this programme. These were set out last year in the review of Network Rail’s delivery plan by Sir Peter Hendy. Following the re-planning of work that followed this review, the programme has been placed on a more efficient footing. A key part of this is the ongoing assessment of investment decisions so that passengers and taxpayers get maximum value.

As a result of this scrutiny from the Hendy review I have decided to defer 4 electrification projects that are part of the programme of work along the Great Western route. The 4 projects being deferred are:
electrification between Oxford and Didcot Parkway
electrification of Filton Bank (Bristol Parkway to Bristol Temple Meads)
electrification west of Thingley Junction (Bath Spa to Bristol Temple Meads)
electrification of Thames Valley Branches (Henley & Windsor)

This is because we can bring in the benefits expected by passengers - newer trains with more capacity – without requiring costly and disruptive electrification works. This will provide between £146 million to £165 million in this spending period, to be focused on improvements that will deliver additional benefits to passengers. We remain committed to modernising the Great Western mainline and ensuring that passenger benefits are achieved.

This decision underscores the government’s approach to wider rail investment; that passenger outcomes must be delivered in conjunction with achieving the best value from every pound spent.

[Gordon the Blue Engine]

I hope all that work in Box Tunnel last year doesn't turn out to be waste of time and money .....

[Tim]

presumably this could push back the delay in getting the wires to Swansea even more?

[ChrisB]

Or speed them up? As these bits are no longer in the work programme ahead of Cardiff-Swansea

[Tim]

This really is quite rubbish.  Presumably it means that we will get hardly any "electric all the way" journeys on the network at all this decade.  This latest delay rules out Oxford-Paddington, Bristol-Filton bank-Paddington and Bristol-Bath-Paddington.  What are we left with?  Looks like it will only be Cardiff-Paddington.

[Red Squirrel]

When you 'defer' something without specifying a date, isn't that the same thing as 'cancelling' it?

[Tim]

Or speed them up? As these bits are no longer in the work programme ahead of Cardiff-Swansea

possible, but I suspect unlikely.  They haven't announced a Swansea timescale yet so pushing it back is perhaps politically easier.  Mind you if Cardiff-Paddington is the first main route to be done, then extending to Swansea does have a certain logic and might make more sense operationaly if all of the Welsh trains (and therefore the welsh depot) become electric.    

[Tim]

When you 'defer' something without specifying a date, isn't that the same thing as 'cancelling' it?

Perhaps.  I suspect that they haven't decided yet.  But if the Bi mode trains are well received and further electrification looks poor value then cancelling it would be tempting and maybe even logical.

[stuving]

If you look at the Hendy update to the delivery plan, three of those route sections were listed with the "EIS^▸ (Enters Into Service) Infrastructure Authorised" milestone in CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024). The other wasn't split at the same point, but Wootton Basset Junction to Bristol temple Meads shows dates February 21092019 - April 2020 (CP6 starts April 2019). So it's partly manipulation of promised dates - everything due in CP5^▸ (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019) is still there.

But hasn't work started on some of this already? You can't defer that. And if it's been contracted for, you can't defer it except at cost. Maybe internal spend controls at NR^» (Network Rail - home page) mean that these ones with end dates in CP6 were already being restrained - only done if essential for the timescale, and no outside contracts if at al possible?

And of course it's basically financial. NR have a CP5 budget, and overspends elsewhere (whether added work or under-delivery) will be funded by cutting these items out of CP5.

So it'll all be down to the CP6 budget. No doubt the long-term planning process is well underway for that.

[paul7575]

If you look at the Hendy update to the delivery plan, three of those route sections were listed with the "EIS^▸ (Enters Into Service) Infrastructure Authorised" milestone in CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024). The other wasn't split at the same point, but Wootton Basset Junction to Bristol temple Meads shows dates February 2109 - April 2020 (CP6 starts April 2019). So it's partly manipulation of promised dates - everything due in CP5^▸ (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019) is still there.

The Hendy update is only really a snapshot in time; there have been two further updates to the enhancements milestones plan, there was one in June and another in September (issued early October IIRC^▸ (if I recall/remember/read correctly)).   Not a huge difference each time but without doing a line by line comparison it might be the Hendy dates are getting slightly stale.

As suggested earlier, until anything with hard date info is published then this may just be DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) admitting to the realistic dates already in the enhancements milestones.    Perhaps it will be clearer in the January version...

Paul

[brompton rail]

Announcement made on the day when to whole of the media in the U.K. is devoting all their resources to covering elections across the pond. Good day for burying bad news anyone!

[PhilWakely]

If you look at the Hendy update to the delivery plan................  Wootton Basset Junction to Bristol temple Meads shows dates February 2109 - .....................

Many a true word........   

[didcotdean]

Bi-mode has gone from being a stop-gap to a 'get out of jail free card' to be able to postpone electrification indefinitely. Look out for more of these wheezes as government finances get squeezed.

Completion of the main line is probably the shocker in here rather than the branches or even DID^» (Didcot Parkway - next trains)-OXF^» (Oxford - next trains).