Great Western Main Line electrification - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[Timmer]

Here's the link to what John R is referring to:
http://www.networkrail.co.uk/Enhancements-Delivery-Plan-Update.pdf

[TonyK]

Marked "Draft" - but looks pretty solid. So Bi-mode first, then the wires, but not to the depot immediately.

[JayMac]

Heads need to roll.

Top of the list should be Mark Carne and Patrick McLoughlin.

[stuving]

What puzzles me about the new milestones - in what is really a reworking of the CP5^▸ (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019) Enhancements Delivery Plan, supporting the Hendy review report - is the gap between "EIS^▸ (Enters Into Service): Infrastructure authorised for passenger use" and "First timetabled public use of the infrastructure". In the last real delivery plan (March 2015, rather than June) this gap was mostly 6 months or even nothing. Now while the EIS dates are much the same as indicated in the Hendy Review, with some glaring exceptions, the first timetabled use is always given as CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024) - which starts in April 2019.

So while the first stage out to Didcot is still shown as EIS in December 2017, and Bristol Parkway and Newbury as a year later, for some reason this usable infrastructure is not used until "CP6". Oxford and Bristol (Temple Meads) by either route are about 6 months later, which does put them into CP6.

At the same time, it assumes that "the enhanced IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) timetable will start in December 2018". Which is? Even if it means "the operable parts of ..." that should include Paddington-Reading-Didcot, shouldn't it?

[Timmer]

Heads need to roll.

Top of the list should be Mark Carne and Patrick McLoughlin.

Well someone needs to put their hand up who was involved at the start who said 'yep we can do this for ^xxx million and have it complete by 2018' as it's become very clear this was well wide of the mark both in terms of cost and time taken.

[Timmer]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35376805

Great Western Railway electrification 'four years late'

The electrification of some routes across the south of England is running four years late, Network Rail has said.

The rail infrastructure owner, which has estimated its project could cost ^2.8bn, is carrying out the work on the Great Western railway line.

It was originally due to be finished by 2018, with most diesel trains replaced.

However, some routes due to be completed before then will not be ready until 2020, resulting in new trains sitting in sidings.

Under the original plan Reading to Didcot should have already been completed, with Oxford and Bristol next in 2016.

But because work has fallen behind, Didcot is expected to be two years late in 2017, and Newbury and Oxford three years late in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

Bristol will not see electric trains until 2020, and the East West rail link from Oxford to Bletchley is delayed until the early 2020s.

'Dreadful' news

Julian Burnell, from Network Rail, called it a "very large and complicated project which involves a vast number of variables across a very large area of the country".

He added: "We're in a much better position to define exactly when we'll be able to complete the work."

Dan Panes, from Great Western Railway, said: "It's not good news today but what we've got to do is make sure that we deliver those improvements."

Christopher Irwin, from passenger Group TravelWatch Southwest, said the news was "dreadful".

He added: "We've got to have trains - electric, diesel, or whatever. We need more trains and more seats."

Network Rail's chief executive Mark Carne told MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament) in October the estimate for the project had been ^874m in January 2013 and ^1.5bn in September 2014.

He said because of "inadequate planning" it could now reach ^2.8bn.

[Tim]

Heads need to roll.

Top of the list should be Mark Carne and Patrick McLoughlin.

I don't think that I am usually a particularly tolerant or patient person when it comes to the railways (for example I think that First should have been stripped of their franchise years ago because unlike NR^» (Network Rail - home page) which has managed to get difficult things wrong, FGW^▸ (First Great Western) has managed to get easy things like ticketing and information provision wrong) , but I do have a fair degree of sympathy with NR over these delays.  It was clear that what they were originally proposing was not achievable.  I expect that they agreed to the unrealistic timescales and costs because that was what the politicians asked of them and they found it hard to say no.

The important thing (and all credit to those involved in this) is that it will all eventually happen.  The frustrating thing is that this screw up was due to poor and inadequate planning.  It we are to avoid a similar problem on the next electrification project, someone needs to start planning it now for work to start in 5 to 10 years time.  I don't see that happening. 

[PhilWakely]

Heads need to roll.

Top of the list should be Mark Carne and Patrick McLoughlin.

I don't think that I am usually a particularly tolerant or patient person when it comes to the railways (for example I think that First should have been stripped of their franchise years ago because unlike NR^» (Network Rail - home page) which has managed to get difficult things wrong, FGW^▸ (First Great Western) has managed to get easy things like ticketing and information provision wrong) , but I do have a fair degree of sympathy with NR over these delays.  It was clear that what they were originally proposing was not achievable.  I expect that they agreed to the unrealistic timescales and costs because that was what the politicians asked of them and they found it hard to say no.

I am inclined to agree with the thought that the original timescales were imposed with significant input from HM Government. Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Network Rail currently publicly owned? It is my belief that some public institutions are being deliberately interfered with by government ministers in an effort to give the public the impression that these institutions would be better off in the private sector and Network Rail is no exception to this cynical interference by HM Governent.

[Visoflex]

Didn't believe me did you!   

Perhaps this thread needs to be re-named again to "Class 387 coming to Thames Valley (eventually)"

Railway industry groundswell indicates that Oxford - Didcot route electrification will most likely be a casualty of the Hendy report, and completion delayed until CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024).  Effort will be kept up to electrify from Reading to Didcot for rolling stock testing purposes and then to infill from Maidenhead to Reading for Crossrail then Didcot to Swindon.  Having all those expensive bi-mode IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.)'s land-locked in sidings with nowhere to go will be unacceptable to the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about).  In the short term, on the juice to Swindon, on the diesel to Bristol.

I suspect we'll be keeping the Turbos for a while longer.  How that plays with GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway)'s overall rolling stock cascade plans will have to be seen.

[Tim]

Heads need to roll.

Top of the list should be Mark Carne and Patrick McLoughlin.

I don't think that I am usually a particularly tolerant or patient person when it comes to the railways (for example I think that First should have been stripped of their franchise years ago because unlike NR^» (Network Rail - home page) which has managed to get difficult things wrong, FGW^▸ (First Great Western) has managed to get easy things like ticketing and information provision wrong) , but I do have a fair degree of sympathy with NR over these delays.  It was clear that what they were originally proposing was not achievable.  I expect that they agreed to the unrealistic timescales and costs because that was what the politicians asked of them and they found it hard to say no.

I am inclined to agree with the thought that the original timescales were imposed with significant input from HM Government. Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Network Rail currently publicly owned? It is my belief that some public institutions are being deliberately interfered with by government ministers in an effort to give the public the impression that these institutions would be better off in the private sector and Network Rail is no exception to this cynical interference by HM Governent.

Gosh that is cynical.  You may be right though.  Most doctors think that the NHS is deliberately being set up to fail as a prelude for privatisation. 
I'm more inclined to think that it is more a case of being ideologically opposed to the public sector. If you are ideologically opposed to the public sector, then you kind of expect it to fail and that can become a self fulfilling prophesy.

[didcotdean]

I am inclined to agree with the thought that the original timescales were imposed with significant input from HM Government. Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Network Rail currently publicly owned? It is my belief that some public institutions are being deliberately interfered with by government ministers in an effort to give the public the impression that these institutions would be better off in the private sector and Network Rail is no exception to this cynical interference by HM Governent.

The initial announcement goes back to 2009 and Adonis. However, the number of 'extensions' to the original concept are legion - extending it out through South Wales, 140 mph running, E-W, spines etc. That's without considering all the other electrification elsewhere. Ultimately there will be a corporate, even national capacity for the amount of work that can be done at any one time.

Notwithstanding this, they seemed to vastly underestimate the cost and difficulty of upgrading very old structures, often in unknown condition until they start work on them, while they largely remain in use. For example a bridge near me which was supposed to be raised in about 10 weeks in the end took about 4 times that and has effectively been rebuilt. And we haven't even got on to the signalling cables ....

Seems like the original total sum would have been an optimistic assessment based on generic structures and costings.

[ChrisB]

Didn't believe me did you!   

I for one believed you....well....all the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) stock is very likely to become bi-mode....387s to Hayes from May - that's nearly Thames Valley :-)

[IndustryInsider]

I was certainly more sceptical, and it certainly now appears that Oxford-Didcot will indeed slip into CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024), though its completion is now scheduled to only just slip into CP6 by a couple of months, so the vast majority of work will still be in CP5^▸ (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019).  Still very disappointing though, and who knows if it will slip even further!

[ChrisB]

Meaning that Chiltern are likely to be rubbing their hands with glee, as the nly direct Oxford services would be the (then) hourly bi-mode service along the Cotswold Line, unless they retain some turbos to augnment these.

[Gordon the Blue Engine]

I don't think that I am usually a particularly tolerant or patient person when it comes to the railways (for example I think that First should have been stripped of their franchise years ago because unlike NR^» (Network Rail - home page) which has managed to get difficult things wrong, FGW^▸ (First Great Western) has managed to get easy things like ticketing and information provision wrong) , but I do have a fair degree of sympathy with NR over these delays.  It was clear that what they were originally proposing was not achievable.  I expect that they agreed to the unrealistic timescales and costs because that was what the politicians asked of them and they found it hard to say no.

I am inclined to agree with the thought that the original timescales were imposed with significant input from HM Government. Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Network Rail currently publicly owned? It is my belief that some public institutions are being deliberately interfered with by government ministers in an effort to give the public the impression that these institutions would be better off in the private sector and Network Rail is no exception to this cynical interference by HM Governent.

Gosh that is cynical.  You may be right though.  Most doctors think that the NHS is deliberately being set up to fail as a prelude for privatisation. 
I'm more inclined to think that it is more a case of being ideologically opposed to the public sector. If you are ideologically opposed to the public sector, then you kind of expect it to fail and that can become a self fulfilling prophesy.

Maybe cynical, but in fact exactly the same as how the last Labour Government engineered the downfall of the privately-owned Railtrack for their ideological reasons.  So your point against political interference is well made, but it^s not confined to one political party.