Great Western Main Line electrification - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[IndustryInsider]

Errrrrrrrrrrrr no there has been a 20% cull on the CP5^▸ (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019)  renewals and enhancements budgets with the work being deferred into CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024) and even some deferred CP4^▸ (Control Period 4 - the five year period between 2009 and 2014) work has  be further deferred into CP6. 

Yes, that's what I was saying - work will be deferred (at least partially) into CP6, MML^» (Midland Main Line. - about) to Sheffield and TransPennine to Selby, and quite possibly the Valley Lines (but hopefully not Didcot to Oxford).  Some of the schemes that might have otherwise made it into CP6 will now be unlikely to happen.  All that along with the tightening of belts in CP5 that you mention.

[stuving]

As high as ^2.8bn now being quoted by Mark Carne to complete the extended GWEP^▸ (Great Western Electrification Program)

That's pathetic. Estimating is a core engineering competence, needed by all professional grades (though varying in its form).

All estimates are incomplete. The only way to identify the "unknown unknowns" is to finish the job. So some contingency element is always needed, and if it is large to start with you have to work to reduce it. Sometimes a quite incomplete costing - "known costs only"  has to be used to start the project, otherwise the time scales get too long. You just have to know that's what you are dealing with.

Of course bosses of all kinds, but especially ones selling the project, tend to leave off the contingency and misrepresent the accuracy of the estimate. And politicians are worse, and as for journalists ... so what we were told may not represent what the underlying estimate said. But even so, to have missed such a huge amount is ... careless, very.

It reminds me of the VW executives' grilling by the US senate. Having said the board did not know about the lies, one was quoted as saying it was all down to a few software engineers. No it wasn't: it was one of the six (roughly) levels of management in between. Look for the "project champion" who was promising the top brass "yes we can". I suspect someone in NR^» (Network Rail - home page) was doing the same thing; being so keen to be patted on the tummy by his master (the minister) he would roll over and say whatever was asked.

[John R]

I think it would be interesting to understand how much of the overrun is due to engineering issues, and how much is due to a change in the tolerance of society to disruption and change since the last major schemes.  I suspect the latter is having quite an impact. As an example I understand from perusing information relating to the "Goring Gap" dispute that Network Rail are considering (at some point) taking down the masts installed and putting up something more acceptable to the Nimby's sorry locals.  How much is that going to cost?  Maybe they should instead built a tunnel so they can hide the whole railway and then we can beat ourselves up some more and wonder why things cost more to do in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) than abroad.

[broadgage]

Would any of the experts on here care to estimate the actual final cost, when the scheme is finished and working ?
I estimate the full final cost at about 8.7 billion pounds, this estimate being based on multiplying the original figure by 10.

[IndustryInsider]

Would any of the experts on here care to estimate the actual final cost, when the scheme is finished and working?

In a word...  No!

Mind you, I did think the original costings seemed very low.  I'd like to know what degree of the overspend is due to the electrification train not working as expected.

[Chris from Nailsea]

Would any of the experts on here care to estimate the actual final cost, when the scheme is finished and working ?
I estimate the full final cost at about 8.7 billion pounds, this estimate being based on multiplying the original figure by 10.

Some time ago on the Coffee Shop forum, I made what turned out to be a remarkably accurate prediction of the cost of a particular infrastructure improvement - simply by making up a figure. 

See http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=8366.msg103379#msg103379 

[Timmer]

As high as ^2.8bn now being quoted by Mark Carne to complete the extended GWEP^▸ (Great Western Electrification Program)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-34594599

Wow that's quite an increase in cost. Coupled with not being able to give a completion date this project really has turned into a bit of a sham. It's pretty obvious they are along way behind with what you can or should I say cannot see with regards to masts and wiring.

Add in the cost and some say the suitability of the trains ordered, it's all a bit concerning.

[Rob on the hill]

Maybe President Xi Jinping could be persuaded to write another cheque while he's here...? 

[SandTEngineer]

One of the principle underlying causes, which we have discussed in many related threads before, is that NR^» (Network Rail - home page) got rid of the majority of its Engineering Expertise. So what do you expect the Bulls**ters and Accountants left behind to come up with?

End of Rant

[Electric train]

The GEWP estimate was done over 6 years ago, there was political pressure both small p and big P (ie small p internal and big P Government) to have the magical figure of ^1b so a lot of creative thinking was done.

[SandTEngineer]

The GEWP estimate was done over 6 years ago, there was political pressure both small p and big P (ie small p internal and big P Government) to have the magical figure of ^1b so a lot of creative thinking was done.

I accept your point ET but the NR^» (Network Rail - home page) GRIP^▸ (Guide to Railway Investment Projects) Process, as you well know, was designed to prevent this type of outcome from happening.  Weren't NR very adept at blaming Railtrack for all the ills of the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) rail industry for exactly the same reasons.  That never did hold any water with me, having worked for both organisations for nearly 15 years in total (8 RT and 7 NR).

[Electric train]

The GEWP estimate was done over 6 years ago, there was political pressure both small p and big P (ie small p internal and big P Government) to have the magical figure of ^1b so a lot of creative thinking was done.

I accept your point ET but the NR^» (Network Rail - home page) GRIP^▸ (Guide to Railway Investment Projects) Process, as you well know, was designed to prevent this type of outcome from happening.  Weren't NR very adept at blaming Railtrack for all the ills of the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) rail industry.  That never did hold any water with me, having worked for both organisations for nearly 15 years in total (8 RT and 7 NR).

You are correct the GRIP process should prevent such things happening, I don't have a lot of faith in it to be honest it can be manipulated to get the desired result, all to common is the "to be developed in GRIP 4" or what ever the next GRIP stage is, thereby the team in the lower GRIP stage puts a "risk" in documents get signed people move on and a new team comes along and find the risk pot is more a thimble

[TonyK]

You are correct the GRIP^▸ (Guide to Railway Investment Projects) process should prevent such things happening, I don't have a lot of faith in it to be honest it can be manipulated to get the desired result, all to common is the "to be developed in GRIP 4" or what ever the next GRIP stage is, thereby the team in the lower GRIP stage puts a "risk" in documents get signed people move on and a new team comes along and find the risk pot is more a thimble

This sums up many of the excellent comments made above. As with MetroBust in Bristol, it is possible to decide the outcome - in this case bus is good, tram is bad - then work the maths to arrive at the desired result. Big infrastructure is harder to deal with, and there are good reasons for pressing ahead despite the cost.

A lot has been invested in the GW^▸ (Great Western) mainline electrification already. To my mind, it was a very big mistake to cancel the project in the 1980s for short term gain. The cost would have been far lower in real terms, although the technology has prospered since. It has now passed the point of no return. Hitachi will be turning out the new trains according to their contract, whether there are wires for them to run under or not. The HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train), despite their fans, are nearing a point way beyond the end of their initial lifetimes. They were meant as a stop-gap to keep us moving until electrification.

The day will come when we in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) join the ranks of all-electric railways. Diesel is dirty, the trains use it only to produce electricity to drive the trains. They have to carry huge engines and hundreds of litres of oil to do this. That takes energy that costs money. The worst coal-fired power station powering a 14MW electric loco is probably doing a cleaner job than the cleanest diesel unit, but power for rail is heading down a one-track line towards 25 KV overhead equipment, maybe with battery power for the shortest branch lines. Electric train is a prophet in his own time.

Coal-fired stations are being demolished - like Didcot - with gas filling the gap until the new nuclear stations get a new clear path towards our low emission future.We are also using less electricity year on year in our homes. I have just replaced 8 50 watt GU10 spotlights with LEDs burning 3 Watts each, and they are brighter and a decent light. The internet is doing much to increase our consumption, but that will drop off with improvements to the technology, hopefully. We will end up with a base load of around 25 GW, equal to about 8 Hinkley C nuclear stations, with peak consumption provided by CCGT^▸ (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) plants such as at Didcot and Avonmouth. These can fire up in minutes, with Dinorwig in Wales keeping the lights on when everyone gets up to put the kettle on at the end of one of the soup operas, or half time in the footie. We may develop Thorium as a nuclear fuel, or harness the tides. Wind and solar farms will be with us for a generation only, as they are not reliable, have too big a footprint for the power they supply, and need alternative backup. You build them, you have to do it twice. If the electric railways were powered by wind turbines, then for two thirds of the time you would be going nowhere.

If the price of electrification looks big, then look at Hinkley C. That was put at ^16 billion last year, ^24 billion yesterday, but ^25 billion today. The sight of a Chinese cheque book has an effect. Jobcentres as far away as Bristol and Gloucester are poised to recruit everything from nuclear scientist to cleaner and the possibility of avoiding work anywhere in Somerset will disappear.

But building a better railway and cleaner power isn't a job creation scheme, or at least shouldn't be. Our future as a country will see gas used only to generate electricity, and that gas will come from hydraulically fractured wells as the North Sea proves uneconomic. We will cook by magnetic induction, heat our homes with wood burners or ceramic heaters, maybe even embrace electric cars. The revolution will be driven by cost, not principle, but railways will lead the way if the government lets them.

[ellendune]

Wind and solar farms will be with us for a generation only, as they are not reliable, have too big a footprint for the power they supply, and need alternative backup. You build them, you have to do it twice. If the electric railways were powered by wind turbines, then for two thirds of the time you would be going nowhere.

The position is not as clear as that.  Or at least only if you use the power only in the same location as it is generated.  However the wind and the sun provide power at different times in different locations so with a National or even continental grid these fluctuations even out. Yes you do not get solar power at night though, but battery technology for large scale static storage of energy is coming on a pace.  So I would not write off either of these technologies as quickly as that.  I do have problems with big solar farms as I believe in the longer term we will need the land to grow food rather than energy. 

[Bmblbzzz]

The HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train), despite their fans, are nearing a point way beyond the end of their initial lifetimes. They were meant as a stop-gap to keep us moving until electrification.

I did not know this. How long were they intended to be in service? I count myself an HST fan ^ how could you not be when your first sight of one was a huge, sleak, yellow and blue machine that whisked you so fast, in such silence and comfort, all the way from deepest Gloucestershire to London without having to change at Swindon, at age eight or so? I'll miss them ^ and their capacious guard's vans when I put my bike on the train ^ but I'll welcome the electric, sleaker, faster, quieter IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) that replace them, just as I miss the sight of Didcot's cooling towers but welcome the cleaner air.