Cotswold Line stopping patterns

[whole diary]

[ReWind]

I don't think 158/150's should go up there though.  Thats a bit off there patch!

Er - Malvern to Weymouth I believe - 158s?

Theres definitely some Malvern services that is  15X

Malvern - Bristol is not the Cotswold line though is it.  Travelling to/from Oxford for class 15x would require traincrew route learning/traincrew traction learning ( depending on which depot would operate them ) and possible line clearence.

[IndustryInsider]

MY first comment, is the fact that you won't get a path leaving Paddington at xx12. 2 behind HEX and 3 in front of CDF^» (Cardiff - next trains).

Neither HEX or Cardiff times are set in stone, witness the recent swap between Bristol and Swansea/Cardiff's from/to xx:15/45 and xx:00/30. As I mentioned at the time, it was undertaken with a view to getting the best out of the redoubling and wasn't attempting to fit into current paths between Paddington and Oxford, or indeed between Worcester and Hereford.

Thank you to both Btline and FallenAngel for responding, but neither of you actually answered my question...  

[Mookiemoo]

MY first comment, is the fact that you won't get a path leaving Paddington at xx12. 2 behind HEX and 3 in front of CDF^» (Cardiff - next trains).

Neither HEX or Cardiff times are set in stone, witness the recent swap between Bristol and Swansea/Cardiff's from/to xx:15/45 and xx:00/30. As I mentioned at the time, it was undertaken with a view to getting the best out of the redoubling and wasn't attempting to fit into current paths between Paddington and Oxford, or indeed between Worcester and Hereford.

Thank you to both Btline and FallenAngel for responding, but neither of you actually answered my question...  

I think you will find i did!

For the long distance commuter, 2004 was the best IMHO^▸ (in my humble opinion).  I cant comment about what it was like before then.  If they could achieve timings like that, I'd be happy.  I really dont have any opinion on the morning and afternoon off peaks - if im on them, something has gone wrong or im ill.  I just feel for the poor punters who have to use them!

[willc]

Did I not comment? I'm sure I said that a 4.15 pm-ish departure from Worcester to at least Evesham would me needed.

I remember being impressed with the journey time reductions. A headline time of less than 2 hours to Worcester would be achievable by the removal of a stop or two.

And as I've said before, most people using the trains - and I don't include you - couldn't give a damn about whether it was 1hr 59min, or 2hr 10min post-redoubling. What they want, in either direction in the peak, is to know that there will be a train every 30 minutes going to or from London and will use the one that suits their needs, not pick one just because it's a few minutes quicker.

Extra custom? The road journey between Worcester and London is so long no-one with any sense would do it on a regular basis, so there won't be much modal shift there.

National Express thinks the London-Worcester market is so lucrative - despite all the horrors that we apparently suffer every day we set foot on our trains (which, beyond a crowded Turbo that shouldn't be on the 8.52 ex-Malvern, I haven't noticed lately) - that it runs two coaches a day each way, which take about four hours.

And I simply don't believe that so many people drive to Warwick, Bham International or anywhere else, for an overall journey that is longer than the slowcoach Cotswold Line, that were there to be a 2hr fast train, the traffic jams on the M42 in the rush hour would simply disappear, because no-one from Worcester would be using their cars any more.

If things are as bad as you claim, then there would have been a clear, measurable drop in custom at the Worcester stations - there hasn't been - or maybe there's just a constant supply of more suckers turning up to endure the interminable journey, never to return? And forget Birmingham commuters, the apocalyptic vision you paint would seem to imply no-one now uses the trains west of Evesham - which would show up in the figures. It doesn't, because they still do, even if they have to suffer all us oiks insisting on getting on their trains in the middle of nowhere along the way.

And for those of us who dont actually live in Worcester, the 530ish means getting up close to 0445 every morning to then get home at 2130.  Even im not that mental.

But how many people are there who do, or would even contemplate, the journey you do as a daily commute? Not a lot. And 2004 was when FGW^▸ (First Great Western) took over from Thames and had to look at the bigger picture on the route, not just running a couple of peak trains a day each way.

As for the structure of the timetable out of Paddington, the first service that gets written in at present is the Oxford/Cotswold one, because of the pathing on the single-line sections. The recent padding has been put in to try to keep the trains in the right slots between Didcot and London and stop them messing up every other service on the route. The redoubling scheme was sold to the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) on the basis that it would help achieve this objective as well. I gather some within FGW are not happy at Network Rail pushing back completion into early 2011, as they want it done in time for the December 2010 timetable change, so that they can recast the timetable quite substantially, so what times certain services leave Paddington at now is neither here nor there - they may not do in future.

PS: In case anyone was wondering about the LM^▸ (London Midland - recent franchise) evening fare I mentioned yesterday, it's called the Super Off Peak and is available within the area bounded by Moreton-in-Marsh, Worcester, Hereford, Bromsgrove and Stourbridge Town. ^3.50 return any journey for an adult, ^7 for two adults and two children, valid on the Cotswold Line from the 17.37 departure from Moreton onwards, thanks to CLPG^» (Cotswold Line Promotion Group - about) pressure, which got the start time moved forward from 18.00. Only promotion it ever gets seems to be from the CLPG. I beleive it's set by LM because it was invented by BR^▸ (British Rail(ways)) Regional Railways when it operated the Cotswold Line local service from Worcester in pre-Turbo days.

[stebbo]

As a Hereford dweller (tho' hopefully - or should that be sadly as I've enjoyed my time here - not for too much longer) what is needed is, say, two fast expresses from Hereford/Malvern/ Worcester.

[Mookiemoo]

And define a 'smaller' station. The town of Charlbury has a population of about 3,000, yet its station generates more journeys each year than Evesham, with a population nearing 25,000. Remove stops at what may on the face of it seem 'smaller' stations on the Cotswold Line and you would end up with very empty, unprofitable fast trains to Worcester, hence the current service pattern, calling at 'smaller' stations along the way, so that it actually pays its way.

Er - is that not because charlbury is just over an hour from london but evesham these days is about 90 minutes plus. 

And also given the demographics of the cotswolds is full of city lawyer types (I see them every day talking about what tarquin and tabatha are doing at the weekend and how their horses are doing).  And yes part of that statement is jealousy because I cant afford a 4 bed detached with land in charlbury but can near ludlow! 

However - with direct trains to london, charlbury given the other factors will always have more passengers to london etc HOWEVER - I do think neglect of the further stations is an issue.

I now do not rank central london contracts as being an option unless they are flexible hours.  Why? because a 630ish train in the morning used to get me into PAD^» (Paddington (London) - next trains) at 830ish and I could get to most places at a reasonable time.  I don't like 530 - requires me to get up at 430 which is inhumane when you dont sleep much before 2am! 

I cant commit to a london contract unless they are happy with a 930 or 10am start and no lunch to leave PAD at 1822 - so much change in six years, none of which is a good thing

[IndustryInsider]

Er - is that not because charlbury is just over an hour from london but evesham these days is about 90 minutes plus. 

I don't think Evesham has ever been within anything like 90 minutes of London, now the quickest train takes 113 minutes, maybe 10 minutes more than the fastest timings of 15 years ago?  Even if it was 90 minutes, that's enough to put off most people who would consider a commute on a daily basis - more people might well travel on business/leisure if the journey times from Worcester and Evesham were to improve, but I doubt many daily commuters would come out of the woodwork to accept a minimum of three hours on a train a day.

[Mookiemoo]

Er - is that not because charlbury is just over an hour from london but evesham these days is about 90 minutes plus. 

I don't think Evesham has ever been within anything like 90 minutes of London, now the quickest train takes 113 minutes, maybe 10 minutes more than the fastest timings of 15 years ago?  Even if it was 90 minutes, that's enough to put off most people who would consider a commute on a daily basis - more people might well travel on business/leisure if the journey times from Worcester and Evesham were to improve, but I doubt many daily commuters would come out of the woodwork to accept a minimum of three hours on a train a day.

Thats why I'm a student - had to find something constructive to fill the hours

I don't actually know the timings from Evesham - I just know in 2004/5 there WERE regular commuters from evesham - I talked to them.  I then went off to manchester and nottingham for 18 months and when I came back they werent there anymore.   What I did notice was  that the sub 2 hour to london journey was now significantly longer and people from less ridiculous places were no longer travellling.  Just like I see people who used to commute now turning up to WOS^» (Worcester Shrub Hill - next trains) with a suitcase in tow.  THIS IS WHAT I SEE.

It is not my job to pay for studies into traffic flow on trains.  But can anyone deny changing what used to be sub 120 minutes to PAD^» (Paddington (London) - next trains) to 2.5 hours HASNT had an effect on traffic - and at least accept if it does, FGW^▸ (First Great Western) does not want WOS commuters

[Mookiemoo]

Er - is that not because charlbury is just over an hour from london but evesham these days is about 90 minutes plus. 

I don't think Evesham has ever been within anything like 90 minutes of London, now the quickest train takes 113 minutes, maybe 10 minutes more than the fastest timings of 15 years ago?  Even if it was 90 minutes, that's enough to put off most people who would consider a commute on a daily basis - more people might well travel on business/leisure if the journey times from Worcester and Evesham were to improve, but I doubt many daily commuters would come out of the woodwork to accept a minimum of three hours on a train a day.

Evesham is a known waiting point - its double track

I tink this is the crux of the argument do you prefer

(1) more trains but average time slower

(2) fewer trains getting there quicker

I always vote for (2)

[willc]

in 2004/5 there WERE regular commuters from evesham... I then went off to manchester and nottingham for 18 months and when I came back they werent there anymore.

How many? And might they not have changed jobs too?

Let's face it, you have admitted what you do in terms of daily commuting is quite exceptional.

90 minutes is seen as the outer limit of regular commuting and it's not as if there are hordes travelling from Moreton-in-Marsh every day, quite a few only do three or four days a week. The UK^▸ (United Kingdom) average commuter journey is something like 55 minutes, which is indeed why lots of people travel from Charlbury and contribute lots of money to the overall figures for the Cotswold Line, helping to pay for services out to Worcester to be at the level they currently are.

If FGW^▸ (First Great Western) hates Worcester so much, why, just over a year ago, give it an extra early service to London? A service, which, like mid-evening trains, only used to serve the eastern end of the line, where the numbers using it, especially from Charlbury and a small place beginning with H, make it viable.

And the taper on season ticket rates is such that you're paying a lot less per mile than someone from Charlbury or Moreton. Again, it doesn't really smack of a hate campaign against Worcester.

I think if the timetable went back to the pre-1993 configuration, with all of two through trains to London, even you might vote for (1). It would certainly be very cheap to operate - which is rather more FGW's current obsession than discriminating against Worcester - with a couple of Turbos shuttling up and down the rest of the day.

[IndustryInsider]

I don't actually know the timings from Evesham - I just know in 2004/5 there WERE regular commuters from evesham - I talked to them. 

It is not my job to pay for studies into traffic flow on trains.  But can anyone deny changing what used to be sub 120 minutes to PAD^» (Paddington (London) - next trains) to 2.5 hours HASNT had an effect on traffic - and at least accept if it does, FGW^▸ (First Great Western) does not want WOS^» (Worcester Shrub Hill - next trains) commuters

Yes, a quicker journey time would have a positive affect on traffic, that point I made in my post.  What I was saying though (and I think Will concurs with this) is that realistically anything under 100 minutes isn't going to happen from Evesham to London and anything over 100 minutes would not bring enough daily commuters to make enough of a difference for FGW to actively bother about it.  Not a case of not wanting them, but more a case of not having a product that would be fast enough to tempt enough of them.

Sure, there are exceptions to the rule and sure, any reduction in journey times would be welcome and would have an impact on numbers travelling, but in the main for leisure and business, not for daily London commuting from Evesham and Worcester.

If FGW hates Worcester so much, why, just over a year ago, give it an extra early service to London? A service, which, like mid-evening trains, only used to serve the eastern end of the line, where the numbers using it, especially from Charlbury and a small place beginning with H, make it viable.

That's a train that could benefit the most from the re-doubling as at the moment it's practically useless with a long layover at Moreton.  I doubt there's ever been more than 10 passengers on board before Moreton and it only really runs as a service train because it might as well do, as it would have to run ECS^▸ (Empty Coaching Stock) otherwise and still stop at WOS and EVE for token purposes.

_{Note - post edited to being the heading in line with its new location. Nothing else altered! i_b}

[willc]

But FGW^▸ (First Great Western) were under no obligation to stable the stock overnight at Worcester and start the service there. It could still have run out just to Moreton as ECS^▸ (Empty Coaching Stock) from London (or Oxford/Reading in the past when it was a Turbo) and avoided the pathing problem created by now bringing the halts Turbo out ECS to Moreton, which forces the early arrival from Worcester at Moreton.

[IndustryInsider]

Granted.  It's a neater solution in many ways - Train crew book off/on at Worcester except for the driver who is the Oxford 'night man' who stays with the set and brings it back; ECS^▸ (Empty Coaching Stock) moves are cut down as instead of a HST^▸ (High Speed Train) running ECS all the way from Old Oak to Moreton with a TM^‡(resolve) and catering crew twiddling their thumbs, the Turbo runs only from Reading with just the Guard with their feet up; and of course people on the last down train at night benefit from a HST rather than a 2-car Turbo.  But, the redoubling will hopefully turn what is now a pretty useless 1st train from Worcester, into a more viable service for the early birds.

[willc]

I can see the logic, but you still have that stand at Moreton for the HST^▸ (High Speed Train), due to pathing, plus the Turbo is on such a tight timing to Evesham that it can't call at Honeybourne, where you would be more likely to find someone wanting an early train to Worcester than at Moreton. But as you say, not much you can do until the Evesham-Moreton bottleneck is removed.

I gather that the Friday 21.48 is likely to be going back to a Turbo shortly (in May?) as neither it, nor the first Saturday train from Malvern, are exactly traffic magnets.

[IndustryInsider]

I gather that the Friday 21.48 is likely to be going back to a Turbo shortly (in May?) as neither it, nor the first Saturday train from Malvern, are exactly traffic magnets.

Probably a sensible move provided a 3-car is used.  There's no reason why it shouldn't be, as there's no Shipton call on the return leg.  Perhaps one of the busier trains during the day on the Saturday will revert back to a HST^▸ (High Speed Train) to compensate, or perhaps the slow re-Turbo-fication of the Cotswold Line will continue...?