New Chiltern Railways leaflet

[whole diary]

[Andy W]

"But as industry insider says it takes a long time to win back a lost reputation and also the Cotswold line will be subject extensive engineering works over the summer. The proof of the pudding will be how the punctuality improves once teh redoubling is complete and becomes fully operational. Although as he says there is still the problem of the overstretched train fleet."

Precisely - which is why, as I've said elsewhere, I try to avoid the Cotswold line even though I live in Hereford

Even though punctuality has already improved out of all recognition since the horrors of January last year? What will it take - five years of flawless performance post-redoubling before you believe FGW^▸ (First Great Western) and Network Rail can actually deliver?

What will it take? A TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company) that takes it's customers seriously - that doesn't treat the (Cotswold) line as an also ran with their "Turbo will do" mentality. FGW has become a commuter focused service (which you fully support) which is why the long distance travelers get a poor service and when the choice presents itself go elsewhere. You can quadruple the tracks, if FGW attitudes don't change, people will not be queuing up to spend several hours on the next Turbo with roll of the dice punctuality.

[eightf48544]

"But as industry insider says it takes a long time to win back a lost reputation and also the Cotswold line will be subject extensive engineering works over the summer. The proof of the pudding will be how the punctuality improves once teh redoubling is complete and becomes fully operational. Although as he says there is still the problem of the overstretched train fleet."

Precisely - which is why, as I've said elsewhere, I try to avoid the Cotswold line even though I live in Hereford

Even though punctuality has already improved out of all recognition since the horrors of January last year? What will it take - five years of flawless performance post-redoubling before you believe FGW^▸ (First Great Western) and Network Rail can actually deliver?

Although I agree with willc that FGW's performance has improved greatly over the past year in particular, stebbo and industry insider are right it takes a long time to regain a lost reputation.

How long have Chiltern had their franchise 1n years? Plus look at the money they've invested with doubling from Princes Risborough to Anyho plus extra signals to give more paths, new tains with more on order.  I worked with someone in the 90s who travelled in from Haddenham before redoubling and his view of the railway was unrepeatble, whereas I was travelling into Paddington with no problems arriving at 07:56 on 13 and getting the 08:00 Hammersmith most days.

Even though the TV off peak service through Taplow now runs immaculately throughout the day,  I'd probably look on the web to see how they were running and would  probably catch the train before I needed to particularly if I had a connection at Reading particularly if there were the slightest hint of any problems. 

A lost reputation takes years to regain. Also success breeds success, so as long as Chiltern can keep up to scratch, FGW will still be playing catch up for a long while. 

[Btline]

Exactly, it will take a long time to re-gain the passengers.

And an hourly service will be great - but what happens when the Turbos come.

Ok, HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) are too much for off peak Cotswold services - but they are more appropriate than Turbos!

[IndustryInsider]

Ok, HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) are too much for off peak Cotswold services - but they are more appropriate than Turbos!

Back to the argument that the Adelante would have been lovely for several of the off peak services. I see one is still lurking in the background at Old Oak Common today...

[willc]

Exactly, it will take a long time to re-gain the passengers.

But they haven't actually lost that many, despite what some of you seem to believe. This morning 50 or so people joined at both Moreton and Charlbury on the 08.52 from Malvern, and about the same again from Kingham and Hanborough combined - hence a very crowded Turbo between Charlbury and Oxford. No, it wasn't comfortable, but it hardly suggests a route that is losing custom. Not everyone can be bothered to drive miles and miles to catch a train - nor, in the case of the groups of holidaying teenagers off to Oxford and London, can some of them drive anyway.

An hourly service will also spread out the loads, eg the 09.55 would surely be quieter than it often is, were it not for the current two-hour hole in the timetable after it runs.

And as I posted in the Portsmouth to Cardiff thread about new units, the plan is to use some of the new DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) on the Cotswold Line, precisely to address the issue of the gap between HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) and Turbos in quality and capacity - hopefully Lord Adonis's return to his desk next week will see news of the order being confirmed at last.

[Andy W]

Exactly, it will take a long time to re-gain the passengers.

But they haven't actually lost that many, despite what some of you seem to believe. This morning 50 or so people joined at both Moreton and Charlbury on the 08.52 from Malvern, and about the same again from Kingham and Hanborough combined - hence a very crowded Turbo between Charlbury and Oxford.

As ever William this proves nothing except that all you and your fellow travelers are worth is a Turbo as far as FGW^▸ (First Great Western) is concerned.

Your statistics are only worthwhile if you can state
1) How many got off at Oxford vs Paddington ie long distance vs Park & Ride,
2) How many people traveled to London from typical Cotswold stations west of Moreton, particularly Evesham / Worcester / Hereford etc

This is information nobody knows within the industry let alone anyone outside.

You really don't know & can't know the full picture - whatever you may think.

[IndustryInsider]

An inside source said to me today that it is FGW^▸ (First Great Western)'s intention to revert back to HST^▸ (High Speed Train) operation from the May T/T for all the trains that Turbo's have quietly replaced over the last few months. I won't hold me breath, and it will need some tightening up of the HST diagrams leading to better use of them resource-wise to achieve, but that's what I was told!

[devon_metro]

Will be interesting to see that.

When the Newquay HST^▸ (High Speed Train) runs, an extra HST is required. Depends whether they cancel the 0640 Bristol - Paddington I suppose!

[Btline]

Good - get rid of those Turbos please!

Esp on the first off-peak train of the day.

[Timmer]

Will be interesting to see that.

When the Newquay HST^▸ (High Speed Train) runs, an extra HST is required. Depends whether they cancel the 0640 Bristol - Paddington I suppose!

They probably will cancel the 0640 and for a longer time period as the London-Newquay HST is running for more weeks this year I believe.

[willc]

Well if FGW^▸ (First Great Western) have seen sense, certainly in the case of the 6.48/8.52, then it is to be welcomed. Just a shame that they behaved in such an underhand way when they made the change and then ignored all protests and responded to the gross overcrowding during the February half-term with lots of waffle about average loadings and using less fuel. The CLPG^» (Cotswold Line Promotion Group - about) has been lobbying them very hard on this, plus many people have complained individually too.

As for the HST^▸ (High Speed Train) fleet, does anyone know when the ex-EMT^» (East Midlands Trains - about)/NXEC^▸ (National Express East Coast) set is due to arrive from Brush? Last suggestion I heard was May.

This is information nobody knows within the industry let alone anyone outside.

No, I'm sure in the age of computerised yield analysis that FGW and the industry generally are utterly incapable of tracking changes in travel patterns, say, for example, first class tickets between Worcester and London...

And they also still use charming, old-fashioned techniques to measure loadings like the conductor taking a passenger count using a hand-clicker, which was done on the 8.52 one day recently.

You always bang on about park-and-ride (or walk-and-ride in mine and many others' cases) v long-distance, but what exactly do you mean? What is someone travelling from Malvern or Worcester to Oxford doing - I would call that a pretty long journey, covering 50-60 mlies. There were probably around 150 on board that train arriving at Moreton. And the majority joining at all the stations I mentioned, except perhaps the one beginning with H, were going to London - as they always are. I've spent long enough standing in the queue at Moreton ticket office over the years at various times to get a good feel for the split of tickets sold.

Of course lots of people got off at Oxford yesterday, maybe 80 plus, so those going on to Reading, Slough and London were all seated, but it was still a very full 166, so in the region of say 220 going beyond Oxford on that unit, plus another busy set carrying all those joining at Oxford - all adding up to a well-filled HST.

And if my observations of loadings are as worthless as you suggest, why should I or anyone else set any store by your and others' assertions that almost the entire business community of Worcestershire and Herefordshire has abandoned the Cotswold Line - or are the people sitting in first class on trains arriving at Moreton or leaving westbound a figment of my imagination too?

Of course FGW has become a commuter-focused railway - no wonder when lots of people now commute from places like Bristol and Bath to London, thanks to the journey time reductions that HSTs brought - the same effect applies at the eastern end of the Cotswold Line. It's a better bet financially than relying on business traffic from small cities like Worcester and Hereford. It's not that I support it, I'm just stating the obvious - we're not living in 1976 any more, with HSTs sprinting from occasional stop to occasional stop. People now expect frequent services from places far outside the old-style commuter belt and FGW and other train operators, such as Chiltern and Virgin, deliver them.

[Andy W]

This is information nobody knows within the industry let alone anyone outside.

No, I'm sure in the age of computerised yield analysis that FGW^▸ (First Great Western) and the industry generally are utterly incapable of tracking changes in travel patterns, say, for example, first class tickets between Worcester and London...

And they also still use charming, old-fashioned techniques to measure loadings like the conductor taking a passenger count using a hand-clicker, which was done on the 8.52 one day recently.

Yes - you know how many people traveled on a specific train - tell me how many drove from places whose closest station is on the Cotswold line to go to London by either Chiltern or Virgin - you can't. How on earth can you know how many people there are like myself who use alternative services? You don't so any figures you state miss the point.

You always bang on about park-and-ride (or walk-and-ride in mine and many others' cases) v long-distance, but what exactly do you mean?

Easy - there is no Chiltern/Virgin alternative so they/you are a captive market, given the parking system you describe in Oxford.

And if my observations of loadings are as worthless as you suggest, why should I or anyone else set any store by your and others' assertions that almost the entire business community of Worcestershire and Herefordshire has abandoned the Cotswold Line - or are the people sitting in first class on trains arriving at Moreton or leaving westbound a figment of my imagination too?

No they're not a figment of your imagination but what you don't know is what percentage of the people making the journey to London they are. Finally myself & others know many who travel frequently to London who avoid the Cotswold line and neither are they a figment of our imaginations.

Finally, regarding the difference between long distance & commuter business models - commuter travel is pack'em in high density whereas long distance is lower density, room for luggage, decent catering. The revenue streams are different but both are very lucrative - one thing though, you can get a commuter to accept restricted space as the vast majority  are short distance but would prefer better accommodation, the reverse is not true of the long distance traveler who by and large will shy away from commuter stock Turbos that stop frequently. Look what they did to the luggage space on the refurbished HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) - commuter mentality.

[IndustryInsider]

Finally myself & others know many who travel frequently to London who avoid the Cotswold line and neither are they a figment of our imaginations.

Just out of interest, what would your estimations be for that then, Andy? Using the four major morning business trains out of Worcester in the morning from the 05:36 to the 09:10 what potential would do you think there is per day? What percentage of those actually now resort to a different operator? And also what sort of journey time improvements do you think would sway them back on the Cotswold Line?

For comparison's sake the current journey times from Shrub Hill are 2h 22m, 2h 24m, 2h 14m and 2h 18m, compared with 2h 09m, 2h 01m, 1h 58m and 2h 12m for the same (or equivalent) services 10 years ago. Note that three of those are operated by HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s as opposed to just two of them 10 years ago.

Look what they did to the luggage space on the refurbished HSTs - commuter mentality.

The main problem here is that HST's are used on all routes as commuter services now. Your late morning holiday special from Penzance on a Friday afternoon gets to Paddington and then works a rush-hour commuter and business service back to Bristol for example. It's impossible to provide enough seats for commuters from stations like Swindon, Didcot, and Newbury and Oxford, whilst at the same time keeping loads of luggage space and tables for families using the very same sets to travel down to Cornwall on holiday. An attempt was made to make some sets high density and some low density, but even the low density ones had most of the tables removed purely so that the ever increasing number of long-distance commuters were kept happy and keep filling the FGW^▸ (First Great Western) coffers with their high-value season tickets.

With the recession hitting hard numbers of commuters into the city are starting to tail off, but just stand on Paddington station overbridge watching the arrivals from 7-9am and you realise what a difficult juggling act FGW have to perform!

[stebbo]

No - perhaps one year.

[vacman]

Why should FGW^▸ (First Great Western) be demonised for prioritising commuters? if you run any business then your top priority is to look after your "bread and butter" the customers who are in the majority and spend lots of money with you, like i've pointed out before, most leisure travellers comment on how nice the HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s are! the only reason that luggage space gets used up so quickly is due to the total numties that put little ruck sacks on the big luggage racks rather than over head, or the selfish tw*t's that put one case on its side taking up a whole luggage rack shelf! the ammount of times i've seen luggage in the doorways etc and everyone moaning until I go in, take everything off the rack and re-stack it sensibly and what happens?....... a miracle.......it all fits in!