Wrexham & Shropshire - their rise and fall (merged topic)

[whole diary]

[anthony215]

I think they paln to eventually  run most of the London Marylebone - Birmingham services using loco hauled stock

[ChrisB]

"most".....maybe a few.....to release Clubmans for the Oxford service.

I understand that they now have 40 coaches owned....but that may increase if that number don't include the released WSMR^▸ (Wrexham, Shropshire and Marylebone Railway) coaches.

[IndustryInsider]

I think they paln to eventually  run most of the London Marylebone - Birmingham services using loco hauled stock

Very disappointing news, but I think that might be partly behind the decision.  The Class 67's, DVT^‡(resolve)'s and Mk 3's could well be put to better use (revenue and capacity wise) on the London to Birmingham route post Evergreen 3 - and there's not a bottomless pit of them out there.

Also, Arriva Trains Wales could inherit their paths with the long muted Aberystwyth to Marylebone service which would/could call at the same stations as WSMR^▸ (Wrexham, Shropshire and Marylebone Railway) (save for Chirk, Ruabon and Wrexham) but utilise cheaper to operate stock and also pick up much needed custom from the central Wales stations on the way to Shrewsbury.

[ChrisB]

I think they paln to eventually  run most of the London Marylebone - Birmingham services using loco hauled stock

Very disappointing news, but I think that might be partly behind the decision.

Possibly - but more likely these two facts - Adrian Shooter explained in the press release that WSMR^▸ (Wrexham, Shropshire and Marylebone Railway) lost ^2.6million in 2010. DB^» (Deutsche Bahn - German State Railway - about) will want to see a return on their money - not a loss........and secondly, Chiltern have been told by the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) that WSMR were unable to carry their Banbury & Leamington pax post the May11 timetable - hence losing a share of the lucrative Rail Settlement Plan money they've been getting through the farebox, thus further exacerbating the loss.

Also, Arriva Trains Wales could inherit their paths with the long muted Aberystwyth to Marylebone service which would/could call at the same stations as WSMR (save for Chirk, Ruabon and Wrexham) but utilise cheaper to operate stock and also pick up much needed custom from the central Wales stations on the way to Shrewsbury.

That would again be open-access and needing to prove a case to the ORR before being allowed. DB again will need to be sure of a return on their money. In the current recession, I can't see it....

[paul7575]

BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) report at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-12284468

I see Wolmar (WSMR^▸ (Wrexham, Shropshire and Marylebone Railway) were originally set up in competition with Chiltern) and Crow (they should nationalise the franchise) both succeed in clouding the issues big time...

Paul

[willc]

WSMR^▸ (Wrexham, Shropshire and Marylebone Railway) were originally set up in competition with Chiltern

No it weren't. W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)) was originally a partnership between Laing Rail and Renaissance Trains (also involved with Hull Trains). At the time, Laing owned Chiltern, before DB^» (Deutsche Bahn - German State Railway - about) bought the rail operation, inclusing the W&S stake from Laing.

[IndustryInsider]

That would again be open-access and needing to prove a case to the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) before being allowed. DB^» (Deutsche Bahn - German State Railway - about) again will need to be sure of a return on their money. In the current recession, I can't see it....

Would it be open-access?  ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) are a franchised operator - surely it would just need approval from the ORR in an 'extention to their current franchise map' way.  Much like Virgin's Wrexham extension of a couple of years ago, or EMT^» (East Midlands Trains - about)'s daily service from Lincoln?

[paul7575]

WSMR^▸ (Wrexham, Shropshire and Marylebone Railway) were originally set up in competition with Chiltern

No it weren't. W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)) was originally a partnership between Laing Rail and Renaissance Trains (also involved with Hull Trains). At the time, Laing owned Chiltern, before DB^» (Deutsche Bahn - German State Railway - about) bought the rail operation, inclusing the W&S stake from Laing.

That's exactly what I was getting at - Wolmar talking through his hat again...

Paul

[ChrisB]

That would again be open-access and needing to prove a case to the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) before being allowed. DB^» (Deutsche Bahn - German State Railway - about) again will need to be sure of a return on their money. In the current recession, I can't see it....

Would it be open-access?  ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) are a franchised operator - surely it would just need approval from the ORR in an 'extention to their current franchise map' way.  Much like Virgin's Wrexham extension of a couple of years ago, or EMT^» (East Midlands Trains - about)'s daily service from Lincoln?

Yes, it would as they would be competing for business with franchisees (unless it cut out stops completely away from other franchees routes, including Chiltern)

[anthony215]

I dont really mind arriva running services to london from Aberystwyth as long as they don't use teh class 158's. Another problems is that the DVT^‡(resolve) & class 67's would have to be fitted with ETRM'S for use on the cambrian line.

I wouldn't  mind a loco hauled service on the cambrian route with some Aberystwyth - Birmingham services being extended to London.

[ChrisB]

You'll get the 158s if anything, as ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) originally applied for. No need to spend money when you don't have to.

[welshman]

I refer to my post of 5th November.  Don't forget that ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) is subsidised by WAG^» (Welsh Assembly Government - about), who are keen on Aberystwyth - London.  Without W & S there's less of an issue about revenue abstraction and ATW could run non-stop from Birmingham anyway.

The ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) acknowledged that there were no performance or capacity issues in relation to the application when they rejected it on 1/3/10.  The concluding paragraph says:-

We have assessed the business case put forward by ATW and remain concerned about the financial viability of the proposed new service. To generate a profit we consider there would be two options open to ATW: either to generate additional revenue; or to increase revenue abstraction. As discussed above, we consider it extremely unlikely that ATW would be able to generate sufficient new revenue to cover its forecast operating costs. In order to do this ATW would need to achieve a generation to abstraction ratio far in excess of that we have seen with other open access services, or case studies from the wider transport market . We therefore consider that the only way that ATW would be able to generate sufficient revenue to cover its additional operating costs would be to pursue a more abstractive pricing and marketing strategy than its business plan assumes. Even without pursuing such a policy, we consider that ATW^s proposed service would have a generation to abstraction ratio towards the lower end of that which we have previously approved. Pursing an aggressive abstraction policy sufficient for ATW to cover its additional operating costs would therefore reduce the generation to abstraction ratio to well below that where we have previously approved applications.

In other words, ATW could only make money if their optimistic projections are right or if they nick all the W & S passengers...

 

[ChrisB]

But WSMR^▸ (Wrexham, Shropshire and Marylebone Railway) can't make a profit (read loss of ^2.6million last year), then ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) will struggle to cover that sum *and* make a profit. Don't forget ATW & WSMR are stablemates & DB^» (Deutsche Bahn - German State Railway - about) just pulled the plug on one.....would they want another subsiduary to take over thje same route & some as an open-access op? I have my doubts, but we'll see.

[IndustryInsider]

I agree with you, Chris - though a more streamlined operation, using much cheaper Class 158's and established staff from a large pool, none of the catering frills which must have cost an awful lot - along with ditching the very dubious bit of WSMR^▸ (Wrexham, Shropshire and Marylebone Railway)'s route between Wrexham and Shrewsbury for the more lucrative bit from Aberystwyth which already loads a 4-car 158 quite well, and I could see that ^2.6m being altered quite significantly.  Perhaps not enough to make money, but as you say, we'll see whether anything comes of it. 

I personally think that ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) would be better off concentrating on getting the Aberystwyth to Shrewbury/Brum service up to an hourly frequency first which has been talked about for ages now.

[ChrisB]

Agree wholeheartedly with that.