New faster North to South Wales Service

[whole diary]

[Btline]

Now if only the route from Wolverhampton to Snow Hill still existed.....

[willc]

Arriva brochure on their planned Cambrian Coast-London trains can be seen at

http://www.networkrail.co.uk/browse%20documents/track%20access/1%20current%20consultations/2008.12.20%20arriva%20trains%20wales%2034th%20supplemental%20agreement%20-%20closing%20date%20for%20responses%2023%20january%202009/aberystwyth%20proposal.pdf

The plan is to use Class 158s (which would get a facelift), subject to clearance for them south of Birmingham International. The Oxfordshire stop would be Bicester North, rather than Banbury, where W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)) stops. On summer Saturdays, they are proposing three trains to cope with holiday traffic, with one each way serving Pwllheli - with a seven-and-three-quarter hours journey in their suggested timings. Hmm... not sure I'd fancy that. They want to start running next December.

[Btline]

Chiltern won't be happy!

If this plans goes ahead they need to add the quadruple track on as much of the route as possible to prevent Chiltern's reliability going down the drain.

And where are they getting the extra units from? And surely the stop at Wolverhampton will have to be removed (leading to problems with current passenger flows)!

If anyone should so this service, it should be W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator))...

[Btline]

Quote from that leaflet:

A direct service will also be provided from Smethwick Galton Bridge to London Marylebone.

They obviously haven't done much research!

And many other parts of the leaflet are wrong.

The Chiltern line is congested as well as the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line), and they will be using the WCML -between B'ham New Street and Coventry - one of the most congested parts (with only 2 tracks).

Not convinced.... or happy.

[willc]

I don't think DB^» (Deutsche Bahn - German State Railway - about)/Chiltern/W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)) is exactly going to be surprised if someone else is looking at using the route. You can't get a path for love nor money on the Euston route, nor to Paddington, so how else is a new operator going to get into London?

The Chiltern line is congested

Hardly, seven trains an hour in the peaks south of High Wycombe isn't exactly stressing out a modern signalling system and ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company)))'s train would run off-peak. What the route does need is reinstatment of through lines at places like Bicester, High Wycombe and Gerrards Cross to allow expresses to overtake stoppers, something DB and Network Rail are already talking about.

Between Wolverhampton and Birmingham International, the trains will run in existing paths for ATW's Aberystwyth-Birmingham International trains, so no extra WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) paths needed, except between International and Coventry, which is do-able - you're only talking about a couple of trains a day.

A direct service will also be provided from Smethwick Galton Bridge to London Marylebone.

They obviously haven't done much research!

Well, there isn't one now, nor is there a direct service from Galton Bridge to Euston.

Extra units? For starters ATW has five Class 150s on lease to a certain train operator, which it is within its rights to reclaim to free up some capacity in its 158 fleet, among other things.

And why should W&S provide it? Renaissance Trains, DB's partner in W&S, was a one-route operation until this year (Hull Trains) and the people behind it are careful operators. Why would you want to get involved with a long single-line route with the inherent problems that poses, which is about to be used for trials of a new signalling system, plus the costs of a new depot, more trains, etc?

If ATW want to try this, good luck to them. I used to live on the border, between Welshpool and Craven Arms and did on occasion travel from Welshpool on the old BR^▸ (British Rail(ways)) Class 37-hauled Cambrian Coast Express (the standard class section off a Shewsbury-London service) as it was far more convenient than going to Craven Arms, then changing at Shrewsbury. As the brochure says, Mid Wales is one of the very few places without a direct rail link with London. With the university and holiday traffic, this could be a steady but not spectacular earner year-round.

[John R]

There are indeed 5 direct trains from Galton Bridge to Marylebone currently, albeit from the Kidderminster line platforms. 

[Btline]

Galton Bridge has a very good service already, with a Chiltern train arriving at London before 9 am, and 4 others all arriving before midday at half hourly intervals.

Plus 4 return trains in the evening peak at hourly intervals.

Putting in fast lines at Bicester probably won't help because Arriva want to stop there. But the fast lines elsewhere might need to be put in.

And I still think finding paths south of B'ham International will be hard given the intensive service running.

[IndustryInsider]

Putting in passing loops is an ineffective way of achieving extra paths - the stopping train needs to have at least a 5-minute layover at the station concerned, and it affects punctuality badly when either train is late.

Personally, I can see how an occasional through Aberystwyth-London service on paper might be appealing, but I'd have thought that ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) would be better off ensuring that the majority of their trains have good connections at either Wolverhampton or Birmingham International with London services (and attractive fares to match - I assume they set them?), rather than concentrating on a couple of through trains that take an age to get there, and for the majority of passengers are not suitable.

[John R]

Having read the proposal I think this is an unsubtle attack on W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator))'s operation.

For example, what market is there for day trips from Aber to London that give only 4 hours in the capital (less when you add travelling time in London) and requires 10+ hours travelling? They talk about a student market. How many students will be willing to leave at 0730 in the morning (even if they are not worried about their Friday lectures.)

ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) says it is not running at the same times as W&S - yet one service leaves 2 minutes ahead of W&S. And in the morning, it runs a service around 30 mins ahead of the second W&S departure from Shrewsbury.

The service proposed doesn't even complement the W&S by filling in the current deficiencies - eg by running an early evening deaprture from London.

Presumably the Leamington and Bicester stops will have to be set down or pick up only to prevent pax buying in advance tickets from there to London and thus getting around the moderation of competition issue.

So, I guess it's an attempt to get a slice of the Shrewsbury to London market income through ORCATS^▸ (Operational Research Computerised Allocation of Tickets to Services), though one thing I am not sure about is how that would work given the W&S tickets are presumably operator specific. One thing is for sure, from what I've heard I'd much rather cruise through Brum on W&S's Mk 3 stock than on a Class 158 crowded with commuter traffic. 

[willc]

Sorry, didn't realise Chiltern called Galton Bridge these days.

I don't think day trips to London are uppermost in ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company)))'s mind here, given the distance and running time involved on a journey to or from Aberystwyth. Early evening departure? Well, the last service you can use now to get back to the coast, even from Euston, is 18.35, which gets you in at 23.56, changing at Birmingham and Machynlleth.

ATW would, I'm sure, like to operate early evening on weekdays from London, but capacity at Marylebone is at a premium then due to the constraints of the site, even with the new platforms, plus the limitations of the Chiltern route as regards getting past the stoppers. You don't think it's through choice that W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)) have that gap in their service then, do you?

If you live somewhere like the Cambrian coast, you don't expect lightning-quick travel, by rail or road, so even the students might get up early if it meant the chance to avoid having to change at Wolverhampton, Birmingham New Street, or even International, which wasn't designed as an interchange. National Express runs one coach a day to London from Aber, which takes seven hours and even that leaves at 8.15, so not exactly long lie-in friendly. The one the other way leaves Victoria at 1pm, so no chance of a day trip by coach at all.

An Orcats raid? Since ATW operate most of the trains which link Shrewsbury and Telford with Virgin's London services in the West Midlands, they can't very well raid money they would be getting anyway, can they? W&S accept all common user tickets on their services, as well as their own, so get Orcats money.

Leamington stops will be probably set down southbound and pick up northbound, because of Virgin West Coast competition rules. Don't think there should be an issue from Bicester, as it is not served by XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) services to Wolverhampton and Birmingham, which Banbury is. And in terms of day trips, Bicester Village might be a tempting destination for shopaholics.

As far as I know, Virgin, as the successor to BR^▸ (British Rail(ways)) InterCity and a former operator itself as far as Shrewbury, prices the fares between London, Shropshire and Mid Wales - except, of course, W&S-specific ones.

I don't know why everyone is so negative. Are you saying that through trains are a bad thing? I believe the consensus here was that FGW^▸ (First Great Western) running London-Newquay direct all summer is a good thing.

GNER^▸ (Great North Eastern Railways) didn't give a damn about Hull. Look at what Hull Trains has done there. Virgin probably didn't know where Wrexham was until W&S began running, yet now rustles up a Voyager every day. Even much-maligned Grand Central is doing good things for the railway. Sunderland-King's Cross business up 84% and from Hartlepool by 785%! Now their trains seem to have stopped breaking down, they are providing a decent service to Teesside and the Durham coast, an area which the railways have pretty much ignored for years, beyond encouraging people there to drive to Darlington.

[John R]

I don't know why everyone is so negative. Are you saying that through trains are a bad thing? I believe the consensus here was that FGW^▸ (First Great Western) running London-Newquay direct all summer is a good thing.

I'm actually very pro Open Access operators, and am pleased to see both GC^» (Great Central Railway - link to heritage line) and W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)) apparently doing well. It's TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) that wait until an OA operator starts and then try to steal some of their revenue that I am not in favour of.

I would expect W&S are putting together a business case for an additional train to fill in the gaps in its service, maybe concentrating on the service south of Shrewsbury to gain maximum efficiency of its stock. It won't be helping their planning if there is the uncertainy of another operator (which resisted fiercely the introduction of W&S) being granted access to their route.

[smokey]

Pity there isn't any open access operations out of Paddington, bet FGW^▸ (First Great Western) wouldn't be happy going to DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) saying it's all unfair.

Before any one say's there's no paths, according to N Rail there were no paths into/out of King's X, yet Grand Central and Extra Leeds trains ARE running.

[willc]

try to steal some of their revenue

I doubt that this would be the case. W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)) are pretty good at promoting their own fares, which do not get shared with anyone anyway, and ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) aren't planning to offer first class, or a restaurant service - so won't be very appealing to Shropshire businessmen. There's plenty of new traffic out there to go after, as Hull Trains (don't forget First Group owns 80% of this business, so are they robbing NXEC^▸ (National Express East Coast)?) and GC^» (Great Central Railway - link to heritage line) have shown.

Why shouldn't places like Aberystwyth, Newtown and Welshpool have a direct link to London? Why shouldn't Shrewsbury and Telford (combined population of about 210,000, so many more than Worcester and Hereford) have more through trains? Remember these two large towns had none at all for a decade until W&S started operating.

If ATW does get consent, there's every chance people will use the trains from the Welsh towns, generating plenty of revenue, and if it helps to make the case for hourly services west of Shrewsbury, so much the better.
 

[Btline]

No-one is disputing the fact that mid-Wales will get direct trains to London.

It is the fact that Arriva (like Virgin) waited for W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)) to set themselves up - a lot of effort and time AND money - and is now announcing a competing service! Arriva have also seen the success of the Chiltern route and are now licking their lips....

As I said before, if anybody should run a new service it should be Chiltern/W&S, so the Chiltern line remains as one company.

The W&S stop at Banbury is restricted because of Chiltern's trains, not Virigin/XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)).

Therefore the Arriva stops at Bicester and Royal Leamington Spa will be restricted - thank goodness, so Arriva won't be able to steal any of Chiltern's revenue!!

Marylebone is very congested, but W&S were hoping for more paths - pity that Arriva is nicking some of them!

[willc]

To suggest this is about creaming off Chiltern's business is nonsense, two trains a day each way, making a couple of intermediate stops, will make no difference whatever to Chiltern's income.

W&S^▸ (Wrexham and Shropshire (Open Access Operator)) aren't interested in going to the Cambrian Coast - Renaissance Railways' people are tied up developing plans for Liverpool-Glasgow and Nottingham-Manchester-Glasgow trains, see ]http://www.renaissancetrains.com/glasgow-trains.html]. But then they'll be creaming off traffic from Virgin and TPE^▸ (Trans Pennine Express). How naughty...

And I can assure you that the restrictions on W&S calls at Banbury and Wolverhampton and lack of calls at the Birmingham stations are due to the Virgin West Coast franchise conditions. Why on earth would DB^» (Deutsche Bahn - German State Railway - about)/Chiltern have the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) impose restictions on W&S, when it owns half of that company? And as Bicester is not served by direct trains to Wolverhampton, unlike Banbury, the VWC rules do not apply there, so ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) will almost certainly be able to pick up and set down.

And I'm sure if W&S, Chiltern or anyone else wants to dispute this plan, they will. It's not a done deal. If Network Rail and the ORR say they can't fit in more trains at Marylebone, then that will be that.

But ATW aren't daft, their trains will arrive and depart there off-peak, so there are obviously fewer Chiltern services around, with no commuters to shift at those times, so I'm afraid all this stuff about nicking paths is nonsense - they are available and unused at these times. The paths W&S want are quite the opposite - so they can get a train into and out of London at about 6pm for business passengers who want a full day in London.