FGW requests new franchise terms

[whole diary]

[r james]

Even if both FGW^▸ (First Great Western) and ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) and Northern could get rid of the pacers, by replacing with 172s, it would be a bonus.  I dont want the 150s to be wasted.

Also, remember that the first group do indeed own some of their HST^▸ (High Speed Train) train sets, so if they lsot their franchise, they would take those units with them, so thing would be even more tight on the GW^▸ (Great Western) franchise. 

[Btline]

How is the 172 idea a fantasy?

I would call the idea that a lot of DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) routes will be electric within the next decades a fantasy!

Obviously, the Sprinters would be cascaded elsewhere, but they are clapped out.

They can no longer do the Lickely Incline, they struggle at Old Hill in B'ham. Some are so clapped out, they can't exceed 50 - 60 mph.

We need to look at scrapping them. Adding an extra bulk load of 172s would be the cheapest way of getting new stock to relieve overcrowding and release 153s etc for Transwilts and Walsall.

[willc]

How is the 172 idea a fantasy?

I would call the idea that a lot of DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) routes will be electric within the next decades a fantasy!

Obviously, the Sprinters would be cascaded elsewhere, but they are clapped out.

They can no longer do the Lickely Incline, they struggle at Old Hill in B'ham. Some are so clapped out, they can't exceed 50 - 60 mph.

We need to look at scrapping them. Adding an extra bulk load of 172s would be the cheapest way of getting new stock to relieve overcrowding and release 153s etc for Transwilts and Walsall.

Yes, the 150s are feeling the strain of being hammered up and down on arduous commuter duties around the West Midlands for 20 years. That doesn't mean to say that with a proper refresh and mechanical overhaul that they can't be made good for another decade of less stressful work, such as West Country branches, or Bristol commuter services - no Lickey inclines there - which is exactly what is proposed for them. And how often do they need to exceed 60mph anyway in the West Midlands?

The fact is that the Government and Network Rail are both serious about electrification - where the oil price went earlier this year has made sure of that. Yes, it takes time to get wires up, but once you commit to a new diesel fleet, you are stuck with it - the current build of 172s will be expected to run until something like 2040! What will oil cost then?

Once you electrify the main lines, which means you have to do the complex, expensive bits like major stations and junctions, then doing other routes is a much more economic proposition. If the GMWL were electrified into Devon, then wiring the Torbay and Exmouth branches would be a no-brainer, and so on. So your need for dmus starts to go down fast. The same sort of process would happen in the North if the Trans Pennine Express lines were wired, as they connect with so many other routes.

The BR^▸ (British Rail(ways)) 15X-series DMUs and the Turbos will be reaching the end of the line between about 2015 and 2025, which gives time to start wiring and then bring in new electric trains to replace them. Start building a vast fleet of 172s now and they would be just 10 years old with many years' life left in them, but nothing to do.

And you still haven't said how you might pay for all these 'cheap' 172s.

[Lee]

Fears are being expressed over National Express East Coast's ability to meet its franchise premium payments commitment (link below.)
http://www.journallive.co.uk/north-east-news/todays-news/2008/10/16/downturn-could-derail-east-coast-train-service-61634-22045613/

[Timmer]

Hmmm, I don't think NXEC^▸ (National Express East Coast) will be the only ones finding it a challenge to meet their premium payment commitments over the next few years.

[Btline]

How is the 172 idea a fantasy?

I would call the idea that a lot of DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) routes will be electric within the next decades a fantasy!

Obviously, the Sprinters would be cascaded elsewhere, but they are clapped out.

They can no longer do the Lickely Incline, they struggle at Old Hill in B'ham. Some are so clapped out, they can't exceed 50 - 60 mph.

We need to look at scrapping them. Adding an extra bulk load of 172s would be the cheapest way of getting new stock to relieve overcrowding and release 153s etc for Transwilts and Walsall.

Yes, the 150s are feeling the strain of being hammered up and down on arduous commuter duties around the West Midlands for 20 years. That doesn't mean to say that with a proper refresh and mechanical overhaul that they can't be made good for another decade of less stressful work, such as West Country branches, or Bristol commuter services - no Lickey inclines there - which is exactly what is proposed for them. And how often do they need to exceed 60mph anyway in the West Midlands?

The fact is that the Government and Network Rail are both serious about electrification - where the oil price went earlier this year has made sure of that. Yes, it takes time to get wires up, but once you commit to a new diesel fleet, you are stuck with it - the current build of 172s will be expected to run until something like 2040! What will oil cost then?

Once you electrify the main lines, which means you have to do the complex, expensive bits like major stations and junctions, then doing other routes is a much more economic proposition. If the GMWL were electrified into Devon, then wiring the Torbay and Exmouth branches would be a no-brainer, and so on. So your need for dmus starts to go down fast. The same sort of process would happen in the North if the Trans Pennine Express lines were wired, as they connect with so many other routes.

The BR^▸ (British Rail(ways)) 15X-series DMUs and the Turbos will be reaching the end of the line between about 2015 and 2025, which gives time to start wiring and then bring in new electric trains to replace them. Start building a vast fleet of 172s now and they would be just 10 years old with many years' life left in them, but nothing to do.

And you still haven't said how you might pay for all these 'cheap' 172s.

Fair enough, but I am not convinced that the gov is really hooked on electrification. An announcement is not enough.

I agree with what you say. I would rather a rolling electrification programme. But would the wires be up in time?

Between Kidderminster and Worcester, line speed is mostly 75 mph with stops 9-10 mins apart.

True about paying. But the wires will have to be paid for as well!

Let's hope for electrification.

[willc]

I wouldn't dispute you can get up some speed on the Worcester-Kidderminster section, but almost all the other routes out of Snow Hill have the stations close together, so good acceleration is really what you need, not necessarily a high top speed - another argument for electrification, of course...

And given where DafT stood on electrification only last year - hated the very idea - they have done a pretty sharp U-turn, which is why Kelly's conference speech was hopefully rather more than just a good soundbite.

[IndustryInsider]

And given where DafT stood on electrification only last year - hated the very idea - they have done a pretty sharp U-turn, which is why Kelly's conference speech was hopefully rather more than just a good soundbite.

That might be the trouble, all it would take is another u-turn back in the favour of new methods of train propulsion - somehow tapping into the vast amount of hot air that comes out of MP^▸ (Member of Parliament)'s mouths perhaps? On a serious note though, I do believe (and hope) that electrification IS very much on the agenda.

[Chris from Nailsea]

At the TravelWatch SouthWest meeting in Taunton, two weeks ago, Dave Ward of Network Rail spoke very positively about the future of electrification using overhead wires.

Apparently, the recent turmoil in the fossil fuel market, with prices of diesel soaring, has indeed brought about a fundamental change of heart in the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about).  Dave's comments, in response to further questioning, were that it is becoming 'increasingly more possible' that the future, westwards, will involve electrification.  The rebuilding at Reading includes inherent provision for Crossrail / electrification to be extended westwards: just how far (for example, 'to Minehead rather than Maidenhead', as one questioner phrased it, rather mischievously!) remains to be seen.

Dave Ward's view was that anything is possible - although he warned that we are necessarily looking in terms of 'generations' - not just his, but his childrens.  However, anything is possible: Bristol is apparently fairly easy (albeit expensive!) to achieve, if the will is there.  West of Bristol, it's less clear: however, Dave was quite specific that the Severn Tunnel could be electrified, so further development westwards towards Plymouth and / or Cardiff are not ruled out.

(My apologies if I'm paraphrasing Dave Ward's actual points - I'm writing from memory, and scribbled notes, but grahame and Ollie were also there, so they can perhaps put me straight, if I have got my wires crossed!).

[Lee]

Fears are being expressed over National Express East Coast's ability to meet its franchise premium payments commitment (link below.)
http://www.journallive.co.uk/north-east-news/todays-news/2008/10/16/downturn-could-derail-east-coast-train-service-61634-22045613/

Hmmm, I don't think NXEC^▸ (National Express East Coast) will be the only ones finding it a challenge to meet their premium payment commitments over the next few years.

National Express East Coast is expected to give an upbeat view of its prospects in Thursday's trading update (link below.)
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=455775&in_page_id=3

[smokey]

Poor old First Group, like I've said many times on this forum, First just didn't do their Homework before putting up a Massive Bid for the Greater Western Franchise, was it or was it not that First Group's Bid was about 5 times the ^200m bid of National Express.

If First want New terms then the franchise (and all other First group rail franchise's) should be reopened to all would be operators.

Something that they are over spending on is a shortage of Train Crew, with crews being almost able to state their OWN terms of payments to work overtime, to prevent FGW^▸ (First Great Western) cancelling Trains due to Staff shortages.

Of course then theres contractors Like ISS brought in to DO WORK that was done by FGW's own staff before, Saving Money? you got to be joking!!!!!!

[12hoursunday]

Franchise, was it or was it not that First Group's Bid was about 5 times the ^200m bid of National Express.

Don't know. Was it. When did become privvy to the financial details of these bids?

Something that they are over spending on is a shortage of Train Crew, with crews being almost able to state their OWN terms of payments to work overtime, to prevent FGW^▸ (First Great Western) cancelling Trains due to Staff shortages.

This isn't happening anymore. It's true that some of us traincrew have made a little money out of the predicament that FGW had found themselves in, however paying the traincrew the extra money was still cheaper than any costs incurred from cancellation penalties etc. ( can i just add that I never held any resourcing managers to a ransom when being asked to do extra)

[IndustryInsider]

Something that they are over spending on is a shortage of Train Crew, with crews being almost able to state their OWN terms of payments to work overtime, to prevent FGW^▸ (First Great Western) cancelling Trains due to Staff shortages.

This isn't happening anymore. It's true that some of us traincrew have made a little money out of the predicament that FGW had found themselves in, however paying the traincrew the extra money was still cheaper than any costs incurred from cancellation penalties etc. ( can i just add that I never held any resourcing managers to a ransom when being asked to do extra)

Maybe you didn't, but many did. October/November is always a good month in terms of driver resources - not many drivers are on holiday. Expect there to be one final round of enforced company generocity and greedy drivers taking advantage of it during December, before, hopefully, enough trainee's are passed out in time for next summer squeeze on resources.

[willc]

I for one hope FGW^▸ (First Great Western) are feeling generous. Those of us who endured last December are praying there won't be a repeat of that shambles.

[Lee]

This Christian Wolmar piece argues that events could provide an opportunity to renationalise the railways (link below.)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/13/transport-railtravel

Wolverhampton South West MP^▸ (Member of Parliament) Rob Marris has challenged Geoff Hoon in the Commons to renationalise the railways (link below.)
http://www.birminghampost.net/news/west-midlands-transport-news/2008/10/23/wolverhampton-mp-calls-for-nationalisation-of-railways-65233-22100633/