Cotswold Line redoubling: 2008 - 2011

[whole diary]

[Steve Bray]

Seems to be a bit of mid-afternoon overkill from Gt Malvern towards Oxford, there'll be departures at 1434, 1522 then 1545ish. Plenty of fresh air on those services. Yet in the morning, Malvernians lose their 0858 to London.

[IndustryInsider]

Yet in the morning, Malvernians lose their 0858 to London.

Yes, that is a bit of a blow - the only obvious negative aspect that I've spotted though.  Hopefully there'll be a reasonable LM^▸ (London Midland - recent franchise) connection at Foregate Street?

[willc]

Well I can think of a few other negatives. Seems to pretty much match a previous draft I have seen and overall a decent package, particularly for the eastern end of the line, considering the pressures on rolling stock. Just a pity there is no train available to go out to Moreton-in-Marsh to run back to Oxford or beyond in the hole between the 08.14 and the 09.20-ish departures - which would be popular and could remove the need for a potentially controversial extra HST^▸ (High Speed Train) stop I will discuss below.

Chief negative has to be the retention of a three-car Turbo on the first off-peak working from Worcester (the Malvern extension of this was a very recent development), when this train will now run earlier and thus collect all the people wanting to be in Oxford for about 10am or wanting to get to London as early as possible using off-peak day/Network Card tickets from the eastern end of the line who currently use the 09.29 from Moreton-in-Marsh.

FGW^▸ (First Great Western) seem to be hoping that by having a fast 09.50 starting at Moreton-in-Marsh this will take some of the load but if you want to make the most of a day out in London then you will go on the train that gets you to Paddington for 11am, not the one that gets there at 11.30.

As a result, the first one will again be very busy at the best of times and hideously overcrowded for the school holidays and summer - and the extra set added at Oxford will not offer any relief, as this will be full of people setting out from Oxford using the first working on which Network Cards are valid. And this info doesn't make clear if the 09.50 from MiM will couple to another set at Oxford, as the 08.58 from Malvern does at present - that service also attracts lots of custom at Oxford at 10.31, so could be very busy if it is a three-car throughout to London and plain vile at half-term.

And I can think of a few people who will be spluttering when they see they 06.43 from Hereford is going to call at Hanborough. A nice gesture for the locals but much of the week, the odds of anyone joining there getting a seat before Oxford are zero and the perception it may give our friends in Worcestershire won't be a good one, though there is at least some effort to make up for it on the return journey, with a 3hr 2min timing to Hereford for the 17.22. Pity those two minutes can't be shed as well to hit the three-hour mark again.

Good to see some of the most horrific slack/pathing allowances done away with - though there is surely scope for more tightening of timings across the board - and that the changes to the afternoon halts train make it more of a workable proposition west of Evesham for anyone missing the 15.51. Plus, so long as it is a Worcester-crewed duty, heralding the return of the semi-legendary announcement from a certain conductor that "this train calls everywhere to Great Malvern".

Seems to be a bit of mid-afternoon overkill from Gt Malvern towards Oxford, there'll be departures at 1434, 1522 then 1545ish. Plenty of fresh air on those services.

Largely a function of when stock is available to run out there. And while these trains may be lightly loaded further west - though the 15.45 (15.11 from Hereford) picks up a good number in Worcester for the stations in the Vale - the first and last of the trio are key afternoon peak trains from Oxford to London. Also, combined with the extra morning stops by trains out of Oxford, they may help stimulate commuter traffic out of Oxford to the business park at Hanborough.

[IndustryInsider]

Chief negative has to be the retention of a three-car Turbo on the first off-peak working from Worcester (the Malvern extension of this was a very recent development), when this train will now run earlier and thus collect all the people wanting to be in Oxford for about 10am or wanting to get to London as early as possible using off-peak day/Network Card tickets from the eastern end of the line who currently use the 09.29 from Moreton-in-Marsh.

FGW^▸ (First Great Western) seem to be hoping that by having a fast 09.50 starting at Moreton-in-Marsh this will take some of the load but if you want to make the most of a day out in London then you will go on the train that gets you to Paddington for 11am, not the one that gets there at 11.30.

As a result, the first one will again be very busy at the best of times and hideously overcrowded for the school holidays and summer - and the extra set added at Oxford will not offer any relief, as this will be full of people setting out from Oxford using the first working on which Network Cards are valid. And this info doesn't make clear if the 09.50 from MiM will couple to another set at Oxford, as the 08.58 from Malvern does at present - that service also attracts lots of custom at Oxford at 10.31, so could be very busy if it is a three-car throughout to London and plain vile at half-term.

Yes, I'm sure it will be very busy, though I'm not sure that it'll be much if any busier than the current 10:31ex Oxford which does usually just about cope as a 6-car set.  After all, there's no shortage of people who now join the 10:31 at Oxford either!  I've never really spotted more than a few, say 20-30 on average, who use the current 09:29ex Moreton stopper when it arrives at Oxford, and with that additional through fast train 30 minutes later, I would expect more to choose that than currently use the 09:29, perhaps even spreading the load to Oxford a little rather than concentrating it?   I agree the 10:31 and 11:31 departures ex Oxford could well need attachments to make things comfortable for those joining at Oxford, Reading and Slough, but as you say it's not clear whether that will happen.  I suspect not.

The busiest Turbo arrival after the rush hour from Oxford that I've consistently observed is the 09:01ex Oxford, which now runs as a 3-car Turbo and is full from Oxford, often has a few standing from Didcot, is crammed to crush capacity from Reading and anyone optimistically waiting on the platform at Slough usually finds themselves giving up and shuffling over to platform 5 for the next stopper!  That wins my award for silliest Turbo-tution of the year since the HST^▸ (High Speed Train) was taken off - and there's no mention in the blurb of that changing back again despite the 10:01 which is now a HST becoming this retimed 6-car from Moreton.

I'll be interested to observe the loadings come September, and I'm sure that FGW will also be watching closely and tweaking things as necessary.

[willc]

I've never really spotted more than a few, say 20-30 on average, who use the current 09:29ex Moreton stopper when it arrives at Oxford, and with that additional through fast train 30 minutes later, I would expect more to choose that than currently use the 09:29, perhaps even spreading the load to Oxford a little rather than concentrating it?

As a near permanent-fixture on services into Oxford at that time of day for some years, and particularly the 09.29 since it began, I think I have a pretty good feel for people's travelling habits.

Current loadings on the 09.29 are averaging 45-50 or so beyond Charlbury (about half join there, the rest are a combination of Moreton and Kingham passengers, though an extra busy day from Moreton can see two dozen join there and push the total past 60. Half-term sees a load in the 60-70 range. I reckon two thirds are getting off at Oxford (so will almost all transfer to whatever train gets them into the city nearest to 10am, ie back on to the train from Worcester come September, and the rest from Cotswold stations on the 09.29 are aiming for the Paddington connection at Didcot, so will also transfer on to the working from Worcester to get into London as early as possible, on top of the people who currently wait for the 08.58 from malvern because they don't want to change trains. If the pathing issues weren't there and the 09.29 was able to run 10 minutes earlier and was a fast from Oxford to Paddington, it would be picking up much more custom that it does.

I remember full well what that train from Worcester was like when the HST^▸ (High Speed Train) was taken off and the sheer horror that was the February half-term in 2009 - along with the bluster from FGW^▸ (First Great Western) about how it had surveys proving a Turbo could cope - followed that December by the provision of the 09.29. Ample proof, for me at least, even if the official line from FGW was to admit nothing, that a three-car Turbo could not cope with the custom from Worcester and the intermediate stations combined. By putting the Worcester train out first and removing the crush-busting function from the service starting at Moreton, I'm very much afraid it's going to be straight back to 2009.

[Andrew1939 from West Oxon]

I disagree with Will's comment on the proposed call of the second Hereford HST^▸ (High Speed Train) at Hanborough. At present there is a 2 1/4 gap in up service from Hanborough after the 08.01. The 08.01 stopper requires a change onto the HST at Oxford that will stop at Hanborough from September adding 1/2 an hour onto the journey to London). Hanborough has probably the biggest passenger growth of any Cotswold Line station over the last 20 years and with planned housing construction of thousands of homes in West Oxon has the potential for even further growth that the CL needs to justify the redoubling investment (and NR^» (Network Rail - home page)'s wish for redoubling the remainder of the line to Wolvercote). The only constraint to the present growth at Hanborough is the lack of adequate parking facilities (even worse than Charlbury) with the present car park full by 06.30, leading to extensive parking on the highway around the station.
I do however agree with Will's response on comment on the 09.31 that starts from Moreton. Prior to its introduction the following 3 car turbo was always very full by the time it reached Hanborough and the MiM start has relieved this over-crowding.

[willc]

I'm not disputing that there is a big ugly hole in the service from Hanborough - just that stopping the 06.43 there as well is not much of a way to solve it, given the train is often full and standing on departure from Charlbury now - and adding this stop will use up timing gains elsewhere from the redoubling, meaning reinstatement of a sub-three-hour timing to London from Hereford probably remains just out of reach, along with a two-hour run from Worcester. And as you note, Hanborough is ill-equipped to handle current demand, never mind any increase - unless North Oxford Garage start to let out their parking spaces for a modest fee!

There is also a big ugly hole in the eastbound service from Worcester, which currently has a 97-minute gap after the Cathedrals Express leaves Shrub Hill at 07.35. Even with the new 08.25, there will still be something like a 70-minute gap, which is frankly bizarre given the time of day we are talking about. In that 97-minute hole, five trains leave Worcester for Birmingham, but not one to Oxford or the country's capital!

Address that issue by inserting an extra Cotswold Line service and you can deal with the 'how to serve Hanborough (and the Wychwoods) better' issue as well - plus the crowded state of the Cathedrals Express by offering something that would probably take off that train many people just heading into Oxford for 9am-ish, which is of course the place where most potential passengers from Hanborough are likely to want to go at that time in the morning.

A more reliable Cotswold Line service may well attract back some of those living between the Cotswold and Chiltern lines, which will only add to the pressure on the Cathedrals Express at Charlbury, in particular, especially if the car park extension goes ahead.

That is why I am convinced of the need for another train to run between the Cathedrals Express and the 08.25 - easier said than done of course, given the pressures on FGW^▸ (First Great Western)'s rolling stock but this is a long-standing and serious flaw in the timetable and one that this September timetable does nothing to address. I recognise it is an interim measure but if a more substantial recast is on the cards, most likely for December 2012 - then finding a way to plug that gap eastbound from Worcester - be it 70 or 90 minutes - needs to be part of the process.

Work-wise along the line today, the front wall of the platform at Ascott is nearly complete, while platform drains were going in at Charlbury, where the hardcore layer and compacting of the soil is complete along the full length of the platform. S&T^▸ (Signalling and Telegraph) staff were out east of Charlbury working on equipment cabinets and the cable duct was taking shape along the back of the island platform at Moreton-in-Marsh.

[IndustryInsider]

I've never really spotted more than a few, say 20-30 on average, who use the current 09:29ex Moreton stopper when it arrives at Oxford, and with that additional through fast train 30 minutes later, I would expect more to choose that than currently use the 09:29, perhaps even spreading the load to Oxford a little rather than concentrating it?

As a near permanent-fixture on services into Oxford at that time of day for some years, and particularly the 09.29 since it began, I think I have a pretty good feel for people's travelling habits.

I'll quite happily bow to your knowledge on that one - my guess was purely based on how many people looked like they were on board when I've seen it arrive at Oxford on a couple of occasions.  Though, frankly, I think you're putting too much onus on how many people are desperate to get to London on the first cheaper train of the day.  As I see it, you have the first off-peak train of the day restored to its traditional time to give an 11am arrival at London (good news - despite the Malvern folk missing out on what was a popular through service), then you have another 'new' fast, and direct, train just 30 minutes later which I think will load well from Moreton, Kingham, Charlbury and Hanborough and will take some of the load off of the earlier service, which being a 6-car from Oxford will (as I said in my previous post) remain very busy - perhaps even slightly busier than before - but not to the extent where Cotswold Line passengers won't usually be able to get a seat.

If everybody wants to get to London as early as they can on the first cheap train, then answer me this:  Why does the second off-peak service (what becomes the 11:31ex Oxford) load so well up to Oxford that you'd be hard pressed to tell it apart from the service an hour earlier?  Having another through, fast, service in the time of the current first off-peak service will, in my opinion, draw enough people from the first train to spread the load so that there are no horror stories, and given FGW^▸ (First Great Western)'s obvious reluctance to use any HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s is about as good as we could have expected.  We will see...

I'm not disputing that there is a big ugly hole in the service from Hanborough - just that stopping the 06.43 there as well is not much of a way to solve it, given the train is often full and standing on departure from Charlbury now

Perhaps today was an exception, or perhaps passengers have got 'toast-rack-itis' when it comes to finding a seat, but I actually caught that train from Oxford this morning and watched as it arrived and counted at least 5 double-bays of seats totally empty in each of coaches 'C' and 'B' (I didn't see 'A' as I boarded at the back of 'B') and numerous other seats just occupied by a single passenger - even allowing for those who got off at Oxford there was obviously no need for anybody to be standing!

[willc]

On a quiet day, the 09.29 will load down to 25-30 - that was the case in early January, but before Christmas and from late January on, it is loading at the level I describe.

My concerns about the 08.25 I believe are entirely valid - there will still be that huge gap in services from Worcester until it sets off, which will always mean it will load well from there and the Vale, but the 09.29's current ability to pick up people ahead of the 08.58 from Malvern will be gone and those people will ALL switch to the train that leaves the stations at the east end of the line first - because they all want to be in Oxford as near to 10am as they can, like me, or to get to London as early as they can.

And even now, 16 months after the 09.29 started running, people are still turning up for it, then hearing the interminable list of stops, don't fancy chancing the Didcot subway dash, and opt to wait for the 'fast' 08.58 from Malvern to turn up instead. There are people left behind on the platforms at Moreton, Kingham and Charlbury every day - they too will get on the first fast train that appears come September, along with all the people who know which is the first 'fast train' at present and turn up for it nearer departure time. At half-term, all those families who make occasional trips and wrestle with an online info system will likely look for the cheapest fare to get to London and back and see which is the first train such tickets are valid on, which will be the 08.25, etc, etc. The 11am London arrival is indeed good news and people will vote with their feet on that basis, placing massive pressure on this train. There was a good reason (apart from training Worcester conductors) that this was the first weekday service to get a 180 back in 2004 - the 280 average adult-sized seats.

The second current off-peak train out of Malvern is indeed busy, but with a different type of clientele from the 08.58 and 09.29 - it is the classic leisure traveller service, tourists, people off to airports for holidays and the like - a 12.29 London arrival is simply not day trip territory, nor really great for a late trip into town for a business meeting, since you don't get much of a morning at work before having to set out. Plus, of course, there is then a two-hour gap in the timetable after it, so there's a bit of an incentive not to miss it.

I would dearly like to believe you might be right about the 09.50 starting from Moreton but I expect it will be no more than a sweeping up stragglers train west of Oxford, with people who have missed the one before and a smattering of those who might otherwise have gone half-an-hour later.

[IndustryInsider]

The second current off-peak train out of Malvern is indeed busy, but with a different type of clientele from the 08.58 and 09.29 - it is the classic leisure traveller service, tourists, people off to airports for holidays and the like - a 12.29 London arrival is simply not day trip territory, nor really great for a late trip into town for a business meeting, since you don't get much of a morning at work before having to set out. Plus, of course, there is then a two-hour gap in the timetable after it, so there's a bit of an incentive not to miss it.

The 2-hour gap is of course closing come September from Moreton-In-Marsh eastwards with the new 11:52 service from Moreton bridging the gap.  Though unless I'm missing something, if you want to go from anywhere on the line before Moreton there will be a 90-minute gap between the first and second off-peak services, which along with the gap Will's talked about after the Cathedrals Express, does look a little silly.

Another bit of good news is the stop at Hanborough (and Charlbury) on the 06:48ex Paddington - there was a chap on here a while back saying how useful it would be to anyone working in Hanborough Business Park commuting from the Oxford direction.

[willc]

First things first, quick photo update from West Oxfordshire today is now online at http://www.flickr.com/photos/willc2009/ which illustrates the state of progress, though I was mistaken when I said some more rail had been laid at Chilson - it was just sleepers last week. Two more nights' work will be needed to deliver the rest of the sleepers required to reach Ascott-under-Wychwood.

Timetabling-wise some interesting snippets in the new Cotswold & Malvern Line News from the CLPG^» (Cotswold Line Promotion Group - about). From the December timetable, a morning peak HST^▸ (High Speed Train) from Oxford is to start back from Charlbury, though no detail on what time this will run, but the only candidates would appear to be the current 05.59 and the 07.33 - and can't see Oxford commuters being too thrilled about the 07.33 arriving with Charlbury and Hanborough having had first choice of seats, so looks like an extra-early start from Charlbury may be on the cards, at something like 05.40. I will investigate further on this point.

This may have been mentioned elsewhere already, but two morning Cheltenham-London trains are to start from Worcester, having stabled there overnight, leaving Shrub Hill at 05.21 and 07.08, with the 19.48 in the evening being extended from Cheltenham to Worcester. Sadly, checking XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise))'s journey planner for the end of May suggests that Ashchurch passengers will still have to change trains at Cheltenham.

RE^▸ (Religious Education) what Insider says about gaps from Worcester post-September, my understanding from seeing an old draft is that the likely morning spread of departures from Shrub Hill will be roughly as follows (allow a couple of minutes leeway either side of these times) 05.15, 05.40, 06.30, 07.00 (halts), 07.35, 08.40 (08.25 time is from Foregate Street then sits at Shrub Hill) 10.10, 12.10 - so a lot of room for improvement there - and in rather stark contrast to the east end of the line, where there will be services from Moreton-in-Marsh (including those starting from Worcester) and all calling Kingham, Charlbury and Hanborough (not sure what extra off-peak stops Ascott may end up with yet) at 05.45, 06.15, 07.05, 07.30 (halts), 08.15, 09.20, 09.50, 10.50, 11.50, 12.50 - fairly clear where the real winners at this stage will be.

Worcester service perks up a bit in the afternoon and into the evening, mostly hourly, with that bunch of three in the middle, and with a couple of 90-minute gaps, including one from about 4pm to 5.30pm, which ain't great for stimulating custom in the Vale of Evesham. The CLPG are asking FGW^▸ (First Great Western) to adjust this, taking out one of the bunch and running it later to offer a better spread between 4pm and 5.30pm but this will likely be for a later timetable, if the idea is taken up.

[willc]

A few pictures from the Vale late this afternoon now uploaded. Not the greatest conditions for photography, having to shoot into the sun quite a bit as the line runs east-west here but give an idea of what's going on. Trackbed clearance is now up to the footbridge over the line east of the River Avon, so about a mile away from Evesham station. Tracklaying has passed Clayfield level crossing and ballasting is as far west as Aldington Siding near the A46 Evesham bypass bridge.

[ChrisB]

Timetabling-wise some interesting snippets in the new Cotswold & Malvern Line News from the CLPG^» (Cotswold Line Promotion Group - about). From the December timetable, a morning peak HST^▸ (High Speed Train) from Oxford is to start back from Charlbury, though no detail on what time this will run, but the only candidates would appear to be the current 05.59 and the 07.33 - and can't see Oxford commuters being too thrilled about the 07.33 arriving with Charlbury and Hanborough having had first choice of seats, so looks like an extra-early start from Charlbury may be on the cards, at something like 05.40. I will investigate further on this point.

I think you'll find it's the latter train.....

[willc]

Well, like I said, I don't think the Oxford regulars will like finding 'their' train doing this. Bar the 05.59, and the 07.09 which has an extended journey time due to calling all stations Cholsey to Tilehurst, it is the only HST^▸ (High Speed Train) of the morning peak that starts in Oxford and gives a pre-9am arrival at Paddington - hence is very popular. Should it start at Charlbury it will be equally popular there and at Hanborough, both for being empty, rather than busy with people from further west, but also because of the very attractive 08.30 arrival at Paddington.

And it would presumably add quite an element of performance risk, as pathing it would require the 05.48 from London to be punctual reaching Charlbury, so that a HST leaving Charlbury at 07.15-ish gets off the single line at Wolvercot with a bit of a margin in hand before the first train from Hereford reaches Charlbury - which would all seem to go somewhat against one of the points of the redoubling, to reduce the number of train meets at or near the single-line/double line connecting points.

[IndustryInsider]

Well, like I said, I don't think the Oxford regulars will like finding 'their' train doing this.

I think you'll find that's their tough luck - plenty of spare capacity on that train every morning (comparative to other services at that time of day).  More likely to be aggrieved are Reading commuters heading to London as that's one of the very few services in the peak to regularly arrive with some seats still available to bag - unlike anything that's come from Bristol/Swansea.

Would this mean that the stop and Hanborough (and, at the risk of being shot down in flames, Charlbury) would or should be removed from the following train (what is currently the 05:43 ex Hereford) to speed them up a little?