Cotswold Line redoubling: 2008 - 2011

[whole diary]

[willc]

An interesting little note has appeared on the redoubling news page on the FGW^▸ (First Great Western) website, which I'm sure will perk up all you speed freaks from Worcestershire...

"this work will greatly ease congestion in the area, help improve train punctuality and it could also mean an increase in the number of train services and a reduction in journey times"

[Btline]

Good to hear.

Just like how the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) upgrade is all to do with speed. And that's why rail's market share has increased dramatically - speed. Speed has caused VT^▸ (Virgin Trains - former franchises) to go for VHF to fit these passengers on!

[willc]

It's not all to do with speed.

In the case of the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) one very basic reason for traffic growth is quite simply that there are trains running regularly and reliably (at least until something breaks again) - something of a novelty, especially from Manchester, after a decade of disruption.

VHF stands for Virgin High Frequency timetable - and increased frequency is what growth on the Cotswold Line has been built on ever since the dark days of the mid-1970s.

[IndustryInsider]

At the risk of interrupting you two bickering all the while, it is of course not all about speed. Just like it's not all about frequency.

Getting more people from Hereford, Malvern, Worcester and the other stations on the route on the train is about getting the best speed, the best frequency, a sensible price and a reliable service. Compromises will still have to be made, and there are also numerous other minor factors, but those are the big four - with price arguably the most important of the lot.

This redoubling project has the potential to directly affect three of those factors. Journey times would be able to reduce as a more flexible signalling system will allow for tighter running and less conflicts. Frequency could increase as there will be more track capacity. Reliability should increase as the extra double track section will reduce the 'waiting for a train to come off the single line' announcements we all hear too often. Don't expect revolutionary changes though - as I've said before Worcester area signalling will still cause headaches. Most of the journey time improvements will be because of trains not needing to wait at Evesham for 10 minutes or at Ascott for 5 minutes rather than removal of station stops or higher line speeds, but I am sure timings will come down. Not to the levels the Cathedrals Express used to achieve in the early 90's, but they will come down nevertheless.

So, that just leaves the cost of the journey. Can't see much happening there though I'm afraid!

[Mookiemoo]

So, that just leaves the cost of the journey. Can't see much happening there though I'm afraid!

I can 

At the moment the journey is one of the cheapest in FGW^▸ (First Great Western) land in terms of ppm I believe (correct me if I'm wrong).

I suspect we might end up seeing Worcester to London become comparable to Swansea to London in terms of price

[Zoe]

Just like how the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) upgrade is all to do with speed. And that's why rail's market share has increased dramatically - speed. Speed has caused VT^▸ (Virgin Trains - former franchises) to go for VHF to fit these passengers on!

At the expense of places like Nuneaton and Tamworth that lost off peak intercity services as a result.  Both of these places are are larger than Taunton and I doubt it would be very popular if FGW^▸ (First Great Western) decided not to stop any off peak Plymouth to London services at Taunton so that they can claim more 2 hour Exeter to London journey times.

[devon_metro]

They can't even manage to claim a two hour journey time without a Taunton stop even though it can be done in under 1h55 fairly easily.

[Btline]

At the expense of places like Nuneaton and Tamworth that lost off peak intercity services as a result.  Both of these places are are larger than Taunton and I doubt it would be very popular if FGW^▸ (First Great Western) decided not to stop any off peak Plymouth to London services at Taunton so that they can claim more 2 hour Exeter to London journey times.

Although VT^▸ (Virgin Trains - former franchises) want to stop more at Nuneaton. (a fourth Birmingham train, for example, which would be routed this way)

I would also imagine that any second hourly Liverpool or Scotland train would be first stop Nuneaton.

[Zoe]

Although VT^▸ (Virgin Trains - former franchises) want to stop more at Nuneaton. (a fourth Birmingham train, for example, which would be routed this way)

But they stopped serving Nuneaton to save 3 minutes on the journey time to Liverpool.  Nuneaton to Birmingham is not electrified so doubt Virgin will be running anything that way in the immediate future.  A Tamworth stop would also be very useful as passengers from the south west to north west could change there rather than Birmingham New Street.

[Btline]

Yes, but if VT^▸ (Virgin Trains - former franchises) introduce a second hourly service to Liverpool, it may call at Nuneaton and Liverpool South Parkway. (for example)

Nuneaton is such a major junction.

Perhaps the 4th hourly service to New Street could be Voyager operated. Remember, VT thought they had sufficient spare to run a few Shrewsbury trains!

I think the electrfication of the route via Nuneaton should be done - it would have shortened my 3 hourish delay last month significantly!

[Zoe]

Yes, but if VT^▸ (Virgin Trains - former franchises) introduce a second hourly service to Liverpool, it may call at Nuneaton and Liverpool South Parkway. (for example)

And some of the Preston/Glasgow trains could stop at Tamworth so people on CrossCountry don't have change at Birmingham New Street as I said above.  I don't expect Virgin will do so though as they are more interested in claiming the lowest journey time possible.

[Btline]

Other stops could be cut. In my example of the Liverpool train, the Stafford and Runcorn stops are replaced by Nuneaton and Liverpool South Parkway.

In your example, which is a good idea to take the pressure off New Street, perhaps a Wigan, Warrington, Lancaster, Oxenholme or Penrith stop could be cut to compensate?

[willc]

Insider, I think we agree rather more than we disagree on this kind of thing and I welcome the prospect of speeding up Cotswold services by getting rid of the padding post-redoubling, which your draft timetable ably demonstrated was feasible - looks like someone in FGW^▸ (First Great Western) studied it and has come to the same conclusion.

My intention was simply to point out that there is rather more to Virgin's revamped service than speed - and its name was a pretty big clue.

[Class 50]

The income on the Cotswold Line tends to be Moreton to Oxford, with a large proportion of First Class and full fare traffic, and any timetable must balance this, I am not sure of Worcester income, but as has been noted fares are not so high here, and trend towards Off - peak and Standard. On this basis the current timetable is probaby optimum balance.

[willc]

There's still a pretty respectable volume of first class traffic from west of Moreton in the peak. Casual observation of the Cathedrals Express arriving at Moreton on three days last week would suggest three to four dozen first class passengers already on board is typical, which tots up to a good few quid, especially at ^129 for an anytime first return from Worcester.