Newquay and Plymouth Airports - their rise and fall - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[ChrisB]

As I said, population doesn't come into it really.

If half of a town of 10,000 wantesd to commute, you could demand a non-stop service, but if only 250 of a city of 250,000 wanted to commute, you couldn't - regardless of distance.

It's purely demand-driven.

[Zoe]

There is certainly scope for increased speeds between Reading and Cogload Junction

I'm not sure you could upgrade that much though, there are quite a few curves on the route and realignments would be quite expensive.  The business case would also likely be quite poor if only one train per hour is going to benefit.

[woody]

There is certainly scope for increased speeds between Reading and Cogload Junction, and NR^» (Network Rail - home page) are pushing heavily for investment from Bristol to Plymouth, mainly 125mph running from Bridgwater to Bristol, but I would expect there to be improvements west of Bridgwater as well.

Post electrification with say 125mph running from Bridgwater to Bristol would it not make sense some time in the future to send Penzance/Plymouth /Paddington Berks and Hants services via Bristol by extending say one hourly Bristol/Paddington limited stop hourly service instead.Also Bristol to Plymouth is used by hourly XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) services so further improving the business case for further investment along that corridor.Personally I think time will show that Brunel got it right originally when he build the Great Western main line from Paddington to Bristol then eventually on to Exeter and Plymouth.

[woody]

Firstly, it's not about the size of the city in terms of population within the boundaries.  Reading Borough, for example, has c150K, less than that of Plymouth, but its suburbs, which fall within other authorities, push that figure towards 250K. As such, it is somewhat misleading to quote Plymouth as the x largest city, within this context.

Just to set matters straight Reading Borough has as you say c150k plus its suburbs outside its boundaries.Plymouth by the same measure has c250k within its city boundaries but closer to c400k with its satelite towns,Saltash,Torpoint etc.Of course the big difference is that Reading is only 36 miles from Paddington and is well within the wider densely populated network area whereas Plymouths blessing and problem is that it is a relatively large but isolated urban area 225 miles from Paddington situated in the largely remote and rural far south west.The easy way to understand it is that on one hand there is the traditional chocolate box image of Devon and Cornwall and then there is the urban Plymouth city and its environs.

[ChrisB]

You still haven't addressed my point about it not being population size but actual demand for the services.

[woody]

You still haven't addressed my point about it not being population size but actual demand for the services.

That was the point I was trying to make was that its not just population size that determines rail demand to London but in Plymouths case geographical position relative to London(the countries economic,financial and cultural capital) when compared to say Reading.Clearly it is much easier and practical to commute to and from Reading to London(36 miles) than from Plymouth(225miles) so no wonder rail demand from Reading is around 12 million passengers annually compared to Plymouths 2 million.Add to that the very slow and unreliable rail service west of Newton Abbot and there is even less incentive to use the railways when the alternative trunk road system in Devon and Cornwall(A30/A38/M5) is generally much faster.(raising speed limits on motorways wont help the situation neither).If you offer a 20th century product in the 21st century running on what is in essence 19th century infrastructure in the far south west then that is not going to help matters either.Put simply it is widely recognised that Plymouths issue is one of connectivety.

[ChrisB]

Unless you got the journey down to a 2 hour trip (4 hour roundtrip) I refuse to believe that the demand would be any higher than it is now. It is simply too far....

[woody]

Unless you got the journey down to a 2 hour trip (4 hour roundtrip) I refuse to believe that the demand would be any higher than it is now. It is simply too far....

Funny enough Chris I have to agree with your statement "It is simply too far....".Sadly it boils down to that fact that Plymouth is now simply too far from London in the 21st century compared to Englands other cities.The only reason that a city of c250k came to exist this far southwest is because of the historic need to support the then worlds largest navy on the the back of Empire.That era has now passed sadly for Plymouth economy and given modern transport realities no inward investor is now going to seriously look any further west than Exeter eastwards are they so logically that is where Network rail is going to do most if not all its infrastructure improvemets.Plymouth RIP

[ChrisB]

Unfortunatyely, I can't disagrewe with you. RIP indeed.

[Maxwell P]

You still haven't addressed my point about it not being population size but actual demand for the services.

That was the point I was trying to make was that its not just population size that determines rail demand to London but in Plymouths case geographical position relative to London(the countries economic,financial and cultural capital) when compared to say Reading.Clearly it is much easier and practical to commute to and from Reading to London(36 miles) than from Plymouth(225miles) so no wonder rail demand from Reading is around 12 million passengers annually compared to Plymouths 2 million.

.

  Reading is a major employment centre in its own right. More folk commute in than out.  It is also a nodal point on the network.

[woody]

You still haven't addressed my point about it not being population size but actual demand for the services.

That was the point I was trying to make was that its not just population size that determines rail demand to London but in Plymouths case geographical position relative to London(the countries economic,financial and cultural capital) when compared to say Reading.Clearly it is much easier and practical to commute to and from Reading to London(36 miles) than from Plymouth(225miles) so no wonder rail demand from Reading is around 12 million passengers annually compared to Plymouths 2 million.

.

  Reading is a major employment centre in its own right. More folk commute in than out.  It is also a nodal point on the network.

That at well of course

[ChrisB]

I'm sorry, I don't believe more commute in than out! Just watch the barriers....(not including students in of course)

[IndustryInsider]

It's an oft-quoted fact that Reading attracts as many commuters in as it does out.  This from the Dft website would appear to confirm that fact (http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/railways/londonareatravelsurveynation1809.):

"Reading has as many inbound commuters as outbound and therefore a significant number of these passengers will be people coming from workplaces in the Town Centre making their way to the station to go home."

[Zoe]

I have been on some HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) starting from Plymouth that only have a handful of passengers until Newton Abbot.  When the train has arrived at Newton Abbot though I have seen quite a few people get on.  The question here is why so few people would use the train from Plymouth when Newton Abbot is only 40 minutes up the line and is quite small in size compared to Plymouth.

[woody]

I have been on some HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) starting from Plymouth that only have a handful of passengers until Newton Abbot.  When the train has arrived at Newton Abbot though I have seen quite a few people get on.  The question here is why so few people would use the train from Plymouth when Newton Abbot is only 40 minutes up the line and is quite small in size compared to Plymouth.

Perhaps people have discovered as I have that if you live in say Plymouths Eastern suburbs,Plympton and Plymstock in particular but not exclusively its much quicker to railhead from Newton Abbot by driving up the A38 Devon Expressway,about 30 minutes door to door,than to drive westwards into central Plymouth on jammed roads with commute times up to 45 minutes then a further 40 minutes rail journey time back eastwards in the direction of Newton Abbot.Add to that line speeds from the top of Hemerden Bank(Plympton) all the way to Newton Abbot are only 55/60mph while motorway speeds are the norm on the parrallel A38(Proposed to be raised to 80mph).
  Then there are the obvious Torbay commuters many of whom would naturally railhead at Newton Abbot.