Dawlish Avoiding Line - ongoing discussion, merged topic

[whole diary]

[Rapidash]

And another thing!

The focus on services to London!

If anyone bothered to do a bit counting, they'd notice it's not the Paddington services that are filled up leaving Newton Abbot in the dark depths of December. it's the XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) services to the Midlands and the North  Obviously they don't make as much money for whatever reason, but getting a seat on a Voyager after Newton is rare as hens teeth! Doubly so in Summer!

Sorry about that, but somedays a vent is required 

Oh, look. A dried frog pill.....

[JayMac]

Oh, look. A dried frog pill.....

Calm down Bursar. 

[Rhydgaled]

If anyone bothered to do a bit counting, they'd notice it's not the Paddington services that are filled up leaving Newton Abbot in the dark depths of December. it's the XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) services to the Midlands and the North  Obviously they don't make as much money for whatever reason, but getting a seat on a Voyager after Newton is rare as hens teeth! Doubly so in Summer!

How long are the XC trains though? Given a refurbished 2+8 IC125 has 546 seats (I think) they may not be full but still be carrying the same number of passengers as a rammed 5-car Voyager (only 262 seats*). Even a 10-car double Voyager formation (524 seats*) would fall short of the capacity of an IC125.

If we assume all the seats on single 5-car Voyagers are gone even in winter and that the loadings on the IC125s are similar how many passengers are we looking at. In the range 300-350 per train maybe? Or, given how much more capacity an IC125 has, it could be nearer 400 on the London services and still not look all that busy?

As for the XC service making less money, how much does lease, track-access and fuel cost compared to a 2+8 IC125 as well?

* I think

[grahame]

If anyone bothered to do a bit counting, they'd notice it's not the Paddington services that are filled up leaving Newton Abbot in the dark depths of December. it's the XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) services to the Midlands and the North  Obviously they don't make as much money for whatever reason ...

But aren't the trains to the Midlands typically a bit shorter than the London trains - so whilst numbers per carriage might be higher, you can't extrapolate that to number of passengers per day.

How long are the XC trains though? Given a refurbished 2+8 IC125 has 546 seats (I think) they may not be full but still be carrying the same number of passengers as a rammed 5-car Voyager (only 262 seats*). Even a 10-car double Voyager formation (524 seats*) would fall short of the capacity of an IC125.

Ah - you saved me looking that up.    ALSO to consider - number of trains, driver and train manager costs,  different loading patterns for the routes which will make it appear to the average Midlands passenger that his train is busier, and to the average London passenger that his is busier.  Also take into account the number of civil servants, MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament) and media people travelling to London versus the number travelling up north when you look at the relative exposure.

[Rapidash]

If anyone bothered to do a bit counting, they'd notice it's not the Paddington services that are filled up leaving Newton Abbot in the dark depths of December. it's the XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) services to the Midlands and the North  Obviously they don't make as much money for whatever reason ...

But aren't the trains to the Midlands typically a bit shorter than the London trains - so whilst numbers per carriage might be higher, you can't extrapolate that to number of passengers per day.

How long are the XC trains though? Given a refurbished 2+8 IC125 has 546 seats (I think) they may not be full but still be carrying the same number of passengers as a rammed 5-car Voyager (only 262 seats*). Even a 10-car double Voyager formation (524 seats*) would fall short of the capacity of an IC125.

Ah - you saved me looking that up.    ALSO to consider - number of trains, driver and train manager costs,  different loading patterns for the routes which will make it appear to the average Midlands passenger that his train is busier, and to the average London passenger that his is busier.  Also take into account the number of civil servants, MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament) and media people travelling to London versus the number travelling up north when you look at the relative exposure.

I think perhaps that is part of the issue - unless its a Beeb bodd headed to Manchester (they'd take the plane, anyway) they won't be noticing it. An example I can give here is the 0703  and the 0740  out of Paignton. Both tend to be fully booked,  both get into Exeter before 0900. The XC service is full up until Exeter, where it half empties out, but is then filled with people headed to Bristol and beyond.  From a look at the digital displays, the major destinations are Brum and Manc. The Paddington service is less than a quarter full by Exeter, despite the majority of seats being reserved (Good thing about paper resevations is you can see them from afar!) - but they all seem to be booked from Taunton and Bristol.

It'll be different come May when the season really starts, as per usual.

Just imagine if we had some intercity services going via Exeter Central, it would be full and standing for the rest of time!

[34104]

Campaign for Rural England in favour of the Okehampton route;

http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/New-reopen-railway-line-north-Plymouth/story-26712958-detail/story.html

Not sure how much clout or influence CFRE have on these matters but certainly wouldn't have thought their support could do any harm.

[PhilWakely]

Campaign for Rural England in favour of the Okehampton route;

This may have been deliberately timed as there was a piece on BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) Spotlight last evening about Network Rail wishing to invest millions "further strengthening the section between Starcross and Teignmouth, rather than spend  'potentially billions' on an inland route". I don't have the specific link, but I'll try and dig it out.

[34104]

Campaign for Rural England in favour of the Okehampton route;

This may have been deliberately timed as there was a piece on BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) Spotlight last evening about Network Rail wishing to invest millions "further strengthening the section between Starcross and Teignmouth, rather than spend  'potentially billions' on an inland route". I don't have the specific link, but I'll try and dig it out.

Yertiz, at 10;13

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05ys4cj/spotlight-16062015

Not sure where they got the information that the inland route would cost "billions"-as I recall the Network Rail study carried out awhile back stated somewhere in the region of ^850m and that was with a 66% overrun factor built in. Hopefully this is speculative and ill informed nonsense rather than being based on subtle hints being dropped by "sources within NR^» (Network Rail - home page)".

[TaplowGreen]

Campaign for Rural England in favour of the Okehampton route;

This may have been deliberately timed as there was a piece on BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) Spotlight last evening about Network Rail wishing to invest millions "further strengthening the section between Starcross and Teignmouth, rather than spend  'potentially billions' on an inland route". I don't have the specific link, but I'll try and dig it out.

Yertiz, at 10;13

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05ys4cj/spotlight-16062015

Not sure where they got the information that the inland route would cost "billions"-as I recall the Network Rail study carried out awhile back stated somewhere in the region of ^850m and that was with a 66% overrun factor built in. Hopefully this is speculative and ill informed nonsense rather than being based on subtle hints being dropped by "sources within NR^» (Network Rail - home page)".

...........in the light of recent events (ie electrification overspend), how confident are you in NR's cost projections?

[Southernman]

I heard that report and wonder if the 'Inland Route' costing billions was the one behind Dawlish and not referring to the Okehampton line. The cost projections to re-open the Nortern route are, as stated above, significantly less than one billion pounds.

[trainbuff]

Yes cost of a DAL is put between ^1.49billion and ^3.1billion.

Cost of 'Northern Route' put at ^875million for double track all the way.

The CPRE^▸ (Campaign to Protect Rural England) Report talks of single track with dynamic loops, as the Exeter Waterloo line is, which would bring the price down further to around the ^650million quoted.

In reality the line only needs to carry 2 or 3 trains (latter preferable) each way per hour over its central section from Bere Alston to Coleford junction. At both ends additional double track may be needed from Crediton to Newton St Cyres, something that would help speed up Barnstaple services, and a section between Bere Alston and St Budeaux Ferry Road.

Later on if the DAL is to be built it can be IN ADDITION bringing all the benefits of both routes

[IndustryInsider]

If you ask me, what will happen all depends on whether there's a significant problem with the sea wall over the next couple of winters.  If there isn't I can see very little happening, and if there is then the momentum will be carried forward and a modest spec inland route, like the ^650m one Trainbuff refers to, will be built.

[Red Squirrel]

For info, here is a link to the CPRE^▸ (Campaign to Protect Rural England)'s Rural Reconnections report.

http://www.cpre.org.uk/resources/transport/rail/item/3986-rural-reconnections

There's 57 pages in the document, which uses the LSWR^▸ (London South Western Railway) Okehampton route as a case study to point out how reopening other routes could benefit the rural economy.

[ChrisB]

As it would across the country, not just in the SW.

But who's paying, and who derermines priority?

[Red Squirrel]

...

But who's paying, and who derermines priority?

That's the ^640,000,000 (or is it ^3BN?) question...

I can't claim to have read every word in the CPRE^▸ (Campaign to Protect Rural England) report, but it seems to me that the main point they are making is that the current BCR^▸ (Benefit Cost Ratio) calculations take little if any account of the growth that is likely to follow on from rail investment. The thing about capital investment is that you aren't spending the money, you're putting it somewhere where it adds value; this kind of thing ought to chime pretty well with the government's policy of building economic strength in the regions by releasing untapped economic potential.

But that doesn't really answer the question. If this really is investment, and if private funds are unlikely to be forthcoming, then the money can only come from central government. But it's perhaps not that fanciful to suggest that they might find a way to do this, preferably without putting it 'on the books'.