Dawlish Avoiding Line - ongoing discussion, merged topic

[whole diary]

[ChrisB]

^60m to ^1.2 billion? So which is it?

Those figures aren't anywhere close to each other! 2million% apart! At least one isn't a viable estimate, and if one isn't, why shiuld the other figure be anywhere close either?

[JayMac]

The Devon Maritime Forum do go into a little more detail in their report. They didn't just pluck the figures out of the air. The upper estimate based on the widely reported figure, at the time of the breach, that the line closure was costing the Devon and Cornwall economies up to ^20 million per day.

http://www.devonmaritimeforum.org.uk/images/stories/DMFdocuments/DMFmeetingArchives/2014Autumn/DMF%20Storms%2013-14%20Summary%20Report.pdf

I do think though that the figures are being incorrectly attributed to just the railway breach. There were many more consequences of the storms this time last year that had an effect on the economies of Devon and Cornwall.

[4064ReadingAbbey]

The Devon Maritime Forum do go into a little more detail in their report. They didn't just pluck the figures out of the air. The upper estimate based on the widely reported figure, at the time of the breach, that the line closure was costing the Devon and Cornwall economies up to ^20 million per day.

http://www.devonmaritimeforum.org.uk/images/stories/DMFdocuments/DMFmeetingArchives/2014Autumn/DMF%20Storms%2013-14%20Summary%20Report.pdf

I do think though that the figures are being incorrectly attributed to just the railway breach. There were many more consequences of the storms this time last year that had an effect on the economies of Devon and Cornwall.

The Devon Maritime Forum's report for the damage is referenced to a report in the Western Morning News published on 6th February 2014 where it says

The cost of storm waters severing the Westcountry^s mainline rail link will run into millions ^ and as much as ^20 million a day, according to industry leaders.

While around 10% of journeys into the region are made by rail, the link into the heart of the capital is a vital one for business travellers.

The paper goes on to report

Cost factors also include increased travel times for executives who command fees of hundreds of pounds an hour, and the loss of trade for station-based businesses such as shops, cafes and taxi firms.

So, basically, pure guesswork.

[Chris from Nailsea]

Hence my comment, in my post above:

Those figures (such as they are capable of being quantified) are from the Devon Maritime Forum.

 

[34104]

Balls;


http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Labour-s-8203-Ed-Balls-says-Osborne-backs/story-26238922-detail/story.html

"I'm not bidding for the Torbay vote, honest guv".

[Red Squirrel]

They want a proper "Dawlish Avoiding Line" to get trains from London to the Westcountry's biggest city in under three hours.

From the article linked to above

I racked my brain to see how the "Dawlish Avoiding Line" helps people get from London to Bristol; then I realised that the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) does a pretty good job of avoiding Dawlish actually. 

Edit: Corrected markup

[Andy]

.....and so the whole issue is reduced to petty partisan bickering: the blues want this, the reds want that. Either/or, them/us, yes/no. How depressing.

 

[TaplowGreen]

Balls;


http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Labour-s-8203-Ed-Balls-says-Osborne-backs/story-26238922-detail/story.html

"I'm not bidding for the Torbay vote, honest guv".

If Balls/Labour feel that strongly about the issue, I wonder why they did precisely buggerall about it during 13 years in Government?

[trainbuff]

What about the South West Speaking with one voice in the form of the cross party South West Peninsular Rail Task Force?

The 3 point plan calls for  a DAL AND a Northern Route. Can't you tell its election time? Lol

[JayMac]

If Balls/Labour feel that strongly about the issue, I wonder why they did precisely buggerall about it during 13 years in Government?

Maybe because building an alternative to the sea wall route wasn't on the radar until the storms of February 2014. Yes, the route has always been at the mercy of the weather, but I doubt that anyone, least of all politicians foresaw a complete washout of the line.

[TaplowGreen]

If Balls/Labour feel that strongly about the issue, I wonder why they did precisely buggerall about it during 13 years in Government?

Maybe because building an alternative to the sea wall route wasn't on the radar until the storms of February 2014. Yes, the route has always been at the mercy of the weather, but I doubt that anyone, least of all politicians foresaw a complete washout of the line.

Which would tend to support the theory that it's best to fix the roof (and the rails!) whilst the sun shines! 

[Rapidash]

I'd quite like the tunnel under Haldon Hill. Might mean Torbay and Teignbridge keeps a connection to the rest of the country without going the wrong way

[wabbit]

It seems we're still stuck in the dark ages of "maximum capacity utilisation", which implies that a line has to be at full usage before an alternative or diversionary option can be considered financially viable.  It's a bit like flying an aircraft with only one one board computer. In one sense highly cost effective as you are getting the most of of a couple of Intel Processors without having to buy and install the other 9, but in all others senses completely utterly insane either to the operators or passengers.

[Red Squirrel]

"completely utterly insane"

"the wrong way"

This topic really polarises opinion, doesn't it?

If this was a religious argument, it would be like the Evangelists vs the Exclusives: one congregation wants to spread the love and understanding as widely as possible, yea verily even unto the unwashed and possibly slightly dodgy tribes of North Devon, whilst the other would forsake all except the multitudinous tribes of Torbay, that their faith may be stronger.

Me? I say spread the love!

[Rapidash]

It's less about being exclusive, and more about being aware of where a lot of rail journeys occur in this area. The vast majority of pax going along the sea wall are internal, the expresses are mainly used for Plymouth to Exeter, ditto from Torbay. A large chunk of Exeter's work force comes from Torbay, about a third of whom travel by rail. Ditto for Cornwall, the majority of journeys are started and finished by Plymouth. Its in the comparatively short  Summer season that that extra traffic occurs.

It just infuriates me how much focus there is on gold plating links into Cornwall compared to Torbay, the Hams and Teignbridge. Devon has a population double that of Cornwall, the vast majority live on the southern/eastern/middle part of the county where there are established rail links. Torbay is economically one of the weakest regions in the country, not quite to the extent of some parts of Cornwall, obviously, but poverty is poverty.

I'm not against Dartmoor reopening, far from it, I imagine it'll be very scenic - but it won't help many of us on the other side of a theoretical smote-hole who use this route on a daily basis for a living, rather than the odd jolly now and then. A tunnel under the hills, though, helps a lot more than the few up in North Devon, who would probably worship a Pacer as a god if given half a chance.