"Old Worse and Worse"

[whole diary]

[Witham Bobby]

The service between London and Worcester/Hereford truly lives up to its Old Worse and Worse name

Looking at the almost 10% cancellation rate in the most recent figures.  This compares unfavourably with the "average" amongst the so-called high-speed services of 7.7%, which is itself, very high

I think the figure for cancellations doesn't tell the whole truth, either.  If you're waiting at Evesham to go to London, but GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) decide to start that train from Oxford that day, and not from Worcester, as far as you are concerned on the freezing platform, your train is 100% cancelled.  It doesn't show-up in the figures, though.  I don't think it would even count as a cancellation if a train starting at Worcester Foregate Street was amended to run only as far as Shrub Hill.  This has happened a couple of times in the recent past

The GWR figures for 8 December 2024 to 4 January 2025 show that 9.83 of Cotswold line services were cancelled, and a measly 52% of them ran on time

[IndustryInsider]

I think the figure for cancellations doesn't tell the whole truth, either.  If you're waiting at Evesham to go to London, but GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) decide to start that train from Oxford that day, and not from Worcester, as far as you are concerned on the freezing platform, your train is 100% cancelled.  It doesn't show-up in the figures, though.  I don't think it would even count as a cancellation if a train starting at Worcester Foregate Street was amended to run only as far as Shrub Hill.  This has happened a couple of times in the recent past

I don’t think that’s right.  AFAIK^▸ (as far as I know) they are still using the following methodology:

A train is classed as fully cancelled if it didn’t run at all, or completed less than half of its journey length.

A train is ‘part cancelled’ if it ran at least half but not all of its planned journey length, or it missed one or more stations in its planned calling pattern.

So, the figures are actually better than they look…though still pretty awful!

[Richard Fairhurst]

It feels that the main issue right now is the late afternoon/evening peak. The morning and daytime services seem to be largely ok (at this end of the line, anyway).

[Mark A]

This made me think of one aunt in particular, and of the nailed-up timetabled train from Paddington in that direction - loco and coaches at 16:45, which used to depart rather serenely, just in advance of most of the evening rush.

Checking Realtimetrains and yes it still runs, at 16:48, a five carriage IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) to Malvern, backed up by a 10 carriage set 40 minutes later.

Mark

https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:Y22372/2025-02-13

[Worcester_Passenger]

It feels that the main issue right now is the late afternoon/evening peak. The morning and daytime services seem to be largely ok (at this end of the line, anyway).

I agree.

I went and looked at the use of the single track section between Wolvercote and Charlbury. Hour-by-hour, the use of this is as follows:

    14:00 : 23 minutes = 38%
    15:00 : 24.5 minutes = 41%
    16:00 : 36.5 = 61%
    17:00 : 39.5 = 66%
    18:00 : 42.5 = 71%
    19:00 : 48 = 80%
    20:00 : 26.5 = 44%
    21:00 : 27.5 = 46%
    22:00 : 23.5 = 39%

The moral that I take from this is that the occupation of this section gets to be progressively more critical over the period from 16:00 to 20:00.

The big contributor to that 80% occupation figure for 19:00-20:00 is the stock of the 'halts' train, on its way back to Oxford. It's given 17.5 minutes for the single-track section.

Does it need to go back in service? Could it go back later? Could it go through to Shrub Hill and be parked ready for the next morning?

[Richard Fairhurst]

Oddly that train (today at least) appears to sit at Oxford for a few hours and then go off for a spin around Foxhall/Didcot West Junction. https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:Y24089/2025-02-14/detailed#allox_id=0

[Witham Bobby]

It feels that the main issue right now is the late afternoon/evening peak. The morning and daytime services seem to be largely ok (at this end of the line, anyway).

I agree.

I went and looked at the use of the single track section between Wolvercote and Charlbury. Hour-by-hour, the use of this is as follows:

    14:00 : 23 minutes = 38%
    15:00 : 24.5 minutes = 41%
    16:00 : 36.5 = 61%
    17:00 : 39.5 = 66%
    18:00 : 42.5 = 71%
    19:00 : 48 = 80%
    20:00 : 26.5 = 44%
    21:00 : 27.5 = 46%
    22:00 : 23.5 = 39%

The moral that I take from this is that the occupation of this section gets to be progressively more critical over the period from 16:00 to 20:00.

The big contributor to that 80% occupation figure for 19:00-20:00 is the stock of the 'halts' train, on its way back to Oxford. It's given 17.5 minutes for the single-track section.

Does it need to go back in service? Could it go back later? Could it go through to Shrub Hill and be parked ready for the next morning?

Ahh, great stuff

So unhelpful to have these two single track sections and constrictive junction layouts at each end of the Oxford to Worcester line

The return of "the halts" train is no longer just cars to Oxford.  It's a passenger working from Evesham to Oxford.

Whereas the cars used to sit over on the Down Refuge at Moreton in Marsh until it was time to return eastwards, the train now continues to Evesham, and forms an up service from there.

I suspect this was done to facilitate the removal of the Down Refuge at Moreton in Marsh

[Worcester_Passenger]

Ahh, great stuff

So unhelpful to have these two single track sections and constrictive junction layouts at each end of the Oxford to Worcester line

The return of "the halts" train is no longer just cars to Oxford.  It's a passenger working from Evesham to Oxford.

Whereas the cars used to sit over on the Down Refuge at Moreton in Marsh until it was time to return eastwards, the train now continues to Evesham, and forms an up service from there.

I suspect this was done to facilitate the removal of the Down Refuge at Moreton in Marsh

It is indeed a passenger working - but does it serve any useful purpose? It departs Evesham at 18:51 and arrives Oxford at 19:50.  The one before leaves at 18:26, the one after at 19:42, so it's not exactly filling a huge gap in the timetable.

[Witham Bobby]

but does it serve any useful purpose? It departs Evesham at 18:51 and arrives Oxford at 19:50.  The one before leaves at 18:26, the one after at 19:42, so it's not exactly filling a huge gap in the timetable.

I think the useful purpose is that NR^» (Network Rail - home page) may have said that they want to take out the Down Refuge siding at Moreton in Marsh.  The unit used to go in there for a while, before returning to Oxford.  By timetabling the train on to Evesham, to reverse at the West Junction, may have been GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway)'s only way of keeping this parliamentary vestige still running for the "service" at the likes of Shipton and of Ascott-under-Wychwood

[IndustryInsider]

It is indeed a passenger working - but does it serve any useful purpose? It departs Evesham at 18:51 and arrives Oxford at 19:50.  The one before leaves at 18:26, the one after at 19:42, so it's not exactly filling a huge gap in the timetable.

You're certainly guaranteed a seat on it!    You could reduce the time it occupies the single line by a couple of minutes by removing the Hanborough stop I suppose?

The set then goes to Oxford sidings ready to form 5L80 at 22:33 which is a route refresher run for Foxhall Junction for Oxford drivers (if needed) and it then stables ovenight for the next morning.  So that would have to be balanced somehow if you sent it to Worcester for the night.

[Richard Fairhurst]

I've caught it from Charlbury to Oxford on occasion, and there's usually a handful of people on board, but only that.

The down working in the morning (Oxford–Shrub Hill, first stop Moreton) is presumably a useful service for early morning Evesham–Worcester travellers though. I guess if you stabled the unit at Worcester overnight you might also have crewing issues to contend with for the morning trains.

[Worcester_Passenger]

The down working in the morning (Oxford–Shrub Hill, first stop Moreton) is presumably a useful service for early morning Evesham–Worcester travellers though.

That's true. The first one from Paddington only arrives at Foregate St at 08:22.  The 'halts' stock arrives at Shrub Hill at 06:17 - I would have thought that an hour or so later would have been better.