General Election, 4 July 2024 - MP changes

[whole diary]

[IndustryInsider]

An unprecedented exodus of MP^▸ (Member of Parliament, or Mile Post - a method of measuring the railway in miles and chains from a starting point - usually London, depending on context)’s.

Didn't more MPs (of all parties) step down in 2010?

Yes, I should have said Tory MP’s, which we’d been discussing in the previous few replies.

[grahame]

Do we have any MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament, or Mile Post - a method of measuring the railway in miles and chains from a starting point - usually London, depending on context) at the moment? I thought Parliament is dissolved pending an election.

So did I, and I double wondered when I saw the letters "MP" on Facebook this morning on a lady who has represented us.  It appears that the formal disollusion date is 30th so that are still MPs until then, although they are not meeting because of the spring bank holiday.

[ChrisB]

They are MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament, or Mile Post - a method of measuring the railway in miles and chains from a starting point - usually London, depending on context) until dissolution on Thursday....then only candidates if selected/paid deposit or prospective candidates if not.

[ChrisB]

although they are not meeting because of the spring bank holiday.

They won't meet again either, as Parliament was prorogued late on Friday

[froome]

And those candidates who do get elected on July 4th will have summer recess to look forward to soon afterwards...

[grahame]

And those candidates who do get elected on July 4th will have summer recess to look forward to soon afterwards...

Which, however, will be an opportunity for the good re-elected ones to do a great deal such as get to know their new constituency (many are greatly changed), for those new to parliament to establish local teams and find flats in London, for those getting government appointments to learn into their briefs, as well as holidays, adjusting their "day job", and so forth.

[CyclingSid]

And those candidates who do get elected on July 4th will have summer recess to look forward to soon afterwards...

Which, however, will be an opportunity for the good re-elected ones to do a great deal such as get to know their new constituency (many are greatly changed), for those new to parliament to establish local teams and find flats in London, for those getting government appointments to learn into their briefs, as well as holidays, adjusting their "day job", and so forth.

Makes it sound as though there is going to be a sudden influx of people wanting to serve the public (as opposed to themselves).

[grahame]

Makes it sound as though there is going to be a sudden influx of people wanting to serve the public (as opposed to themselves).

You were quoting me, and perhaps I did.   Taking the first element, there will be a sudden influx of people; the five year (ish) cycle means that new MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament, or Mile Post - a method of measuring the railway in miles and chains from a starting point - usually London, depending on context) arrive in floods with just drips in between.   Why do they want to be there, though? - multiple reasons, each of them probably has a different balance between those reasons, and in any case they need to take broadly similar actions to forward their agenda.   Be it their personal furtherment, their party, their area, their country, their principles, their employer in another job, their family expectations, their enjoyment ...

[Electric train]

Theresa May constituency has parachuted in an out of townie Dr Tania Mathias.

She ousted Liberal Democrat Vince Cable in the 2015 General Election when was elected as the MP^▸ (Member of Parliament, or Mile Post - a method of measuring the railway in miles and chains from a starting point - usually London, depending on context) for Twickenham, however Vince Cable got his own back in the snap 2017 general election Mathias was defeated by almost 10,000 votes.

Both the Labour and Lib Dem candidates are locals who live in the constituency

[grahame]

And so ... the election is tomorrow!



Taking mid-projection, it looks likely we will have a Labour Govemment, but with 2 out of every 3 of their MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament, or Mile Post - a method of measuring the railway in miles and chains from a starting point - usually London, depending on context) being new so that will be an interesting learning curve.   And if the Liberal Democrats do as predicted, 6 out of every 7 will be new to parliament.    So  expect things will either take time to settle, or a lead team will ram lots of stuff through before their new troops have time to query it.

I would not like to bet on the Chippenham, the Melksham and Devizes, or the Wiltshire South West seats.

[Chris from Nailsea]

I have a bet with grahame that, here in North Somerset, Sir Liam Fox (Con) will be re-elected - but with a much smaller majority than he's become used to. 

CfN. 

[ellendune]

I would not like to bet on the Chippenham, the Melksham and Devizes, or the Wiltshire South West seats.

East Wiltshire is not a safe seat either. 

[Electric train]

And so ... the election is tomorrow!



Taking mid-projection, it looks likely we will have a Labour Govemment, but with 2 out of every 3 of their MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament, or Mile Post - a method of measuring the railway in miles and chains from a starting point - usually London, depending on context) being new so that will be an interesting learning curve.   And if the Liberal Democrats do as predicted, 6 out of every 7 will be new to parliament.    So  expect things will either take time to settle, or a lead team will ram lots of stuff through before their new troops have time to query it.

I would not like to bet on the Chippenham, the Melksham and Devizes, or the Wiltshire South West seats.

I cannot see the Conservatives going as low as 22 seats, if they did it could be almost oblivion the internal fighting will be bad loosing power but it would be brutal with a seat count below 120.

We could find ourselves with a minority Government that will rely on other parties to back the agenda (not a coalition)

Could we see a Harold Wilson 1974 event again?

[grahame]

Gentlemen and Ladies ... get out there today and VOTE!

Many of us in the South West are now in marginal constituencies and can make a huge difference.

[grahame]

I have a bet with grahame that, here in North Somerset, Sir Liam Fox (Con) will be re-elected - but with a much smaller majority than he's become used to. 

CfN. 

"Sporting" bet only.   I'm not looking to forecast my own seat let alone one somewhere west of me.  But I would forecast that the dominant sea of blue that's been on the map for the last decade will be more colourful by this time tomorrow.    We will be seeing red and orange and blue ... maybe green and aqua too.