If not HS2 to Manchester, how will traffic be carried?

[whole diary]

[grahame]

HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))'s Manchester (northern) leg was designed to increase rail capacity from London to the North West and beyond, and by cancelling it HMG have also reduced that planned future capacity.  So what will be done to meet the demand it was supposed to answer?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/labour-will-resurrect-northern-leg-of-hs2-reports-370843/

Labour has indicated it will resurrect the northern leg of HS2 if it wins the next election, according to reports in The Telegraph.

Rishi Sunak scrapped the Manchester leg of HS2 while at the Tory Party’s conference in Manchester last year, effectively teeing up the prospect of an expensive rail line between the Midlands and a borough in west London.

The party has pledged to reallocate HS2 funding to local infrastructure projects, but there has been dismay after areas in the south received money for a project that was intended to boost connections in the north.

Now, Labour could resurrect the northern leg, with reports suggesting the party has privately indicated to the rail industry that they could reverse the Tory’s decision.

https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmidlands/news/2084353-mayors-unveil-plans-for-new-staffordshire-to-manchester-railway-line

The mayors of the West Midlands and Greater Manchester have revealed the preferred option to improve connectivity between the two regions.

Andy Street and Andy Burnham say the best option is to create a new railway line from HS2 at Handsacre, Lichfield to Manchester Airport after the pair commissioned work with a private sector consortium.

Former HS2 boss Sir David Higgins has worked alongside the group consisting of Arup, Arcadis, EY, Skanska, Dragados, Addleshaw Goddard and Mace, which have assessed three options to alleviate a congested West Coast Mainline and boost connectivity.

The preferred option could be based on the latest leg of the TGV^▸ (Train a Grande Vitesse) high-speed railway from Bordeaux to Tours, where almost half of the €7.8bn cost of the line was provided through private finance. It will be recouped through a 50-year concession contract.

Other options considered included:
• Enhance the existing West Coast Main Line to “improve some of the most constrained parts”
• Build major bypasses to West Coast Mainline constraints, particularly between Crewe and Stockport as well as make upgrades to the existing line

Burnham said: “It’s becoming drastically clear that the existing West Coast Mainline and the congested M6 will not be sufficient to cope with increasing passenger and freight volumes. Without an alternative, they could very soon become a barrier to growth in the North and the West Midlands.”

[Electric train]

Andrew Haines has pointed out to HMG the cancelling of the northern section of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) will place excessive pressure on the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) north of  Handsacre Junction, due to HS2 trains being much shorter than the pendolinos as such twice as many trains will need to be run!! 

Network Rail does not have any CP7 funding to accommodate this because all of the capacity increase was being funded by HS2

Its going to be a mess

[anthony215]

Andrew Haines has pointed out to HMG the cancelling of the northern section of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) will place excessive pressure on the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) north of  Handsacre Junction, due to HS2 trains being much shorter than the pendolinos as such twice as many trains will need to be run!! 

Network Rail does not have any CP7 funding to accommodate this because all of the capacity increase was being funded by HS2

Its going to be a mess

You know it was a mistake to cancel the Northern section when you got the mayors from both large political parties joining forces to campaign.

Plus you've got pro motoring lobbies themselves admitting that yes its nice for more money to fix portholes however the money probably won't be available for another few years.
SO it is pointless and if a lot of long distance services can't be taken off the west coast mainline its going to mean more lorries on the M1, M6 etc causing more congestion and road damage   how often do we hear the AA etc admit things like this. Let's hope the private sector and investors will jump in to help fund the mayors alternative northern link.to HS2

[simonw]

I have nether been an HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) fan, but I am fully on board to add extra capacity

• to allow frequent express trains
• to allow more local stopping services
• to allow more freight services

The idea from the two City Region mayors is good and should be fast-tracked, along links to Leeds from Birmingham.

[Noggin]

One way of looking at things is that the idea of a WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) relief line made great sense (particularly seen through the prism of Railtrack's failed upgrade), but it morphed into a monster. The Treasury wanted it to be standalone, others wanted it to be Euro-spec in loading gauge and train length, someone else decided it should be super-fast etc.

Getting out of London and the Home Counties was aways going to be horribly expensive. Replacing Euston makes sense, OOC^▸ (Old Oak Common (depot)) makes sense (Heathrow interchange, backup to Euston and Paddington), Birmingham Curzon Street and Interchange kinda make sense (particularly if Moor Street is rebuilt as a regional hub and HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) East was used to enable a layer of regional super-fast services to Nottingham, Leicester & Derby).

For me, what didn't make sense were Leeds and Manchester as terminii (which a standalone project dictated) - the solution should have included a high-speed transpennine corridor (with passive provision for an eventual south-transpennine Sheffield to Manchester Airport line).

So the idea of a privately funded Hansacre to Manchester Airport line seems like a smart piece of politics and a good way to deliver a WCML relief line. It's limited in scope, much of the prep work has been done, it will be much cheaper per KM than phase 1, the Treasury is less likely to object as it's PFI, it doesn't tread on the transpennine aspirations of NR^» (Network Rail - home page), the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) or anyone else etc.