Mass transit public transport is about combining lots of small "flows" of passengers. Combining the micro-uses of me wanting to take visitors to Oxford for the day with the people with business trips to London, the folks called up for Jury duty in Swindon, the folks who live in Melksham and commute to Swindon and those who commute to Bristol and Filton Abbey Wood, changing trains at Chippenham, and those who work in Chippenham or go to school or college there. Don't forget the people travelling in to visit Melksham businesses (and some come from a long way away) and those who have delivered a motor vehicle to the town and are using the train home. And please don't overlook the people travelling with children who are living with mum but spend weekends with Dad, and the people headed out for a day in the country, at the seaside, or to visit friends.
Individually, each of these flows of people to of from Melksham is quite small. In combination, they make a chunky gathering who can all efficiently travel on the same train. And Melksham is just one of five stations on the line. For every passenger who joins a train at Melksham, there are two more who have joined at Westbury or Trowbridge. And so it is that you'll have 60 or 70 people on the train. There are, though, large numbers of people - in the groups mentioned above - who do not use the train because it is too infrequent. We are pretty sure (and I can provide evidence that if you double the service, that 60 or 70 people will rise to around 100 on the same train, and whilst the puts the operational cost up, it certainly does not even double it because you already have the railway line there. You're looking at 1.5 times the cost for 3 times the passengers. Of course, you can't keep doubling the service and our analysis suggest that a future doubling (so 4 times the current service - half hourly) at this stage would result in only a modest further passenger increase at this stage.
Heritage Railway lines run to Swanage and to Minehead in the South West of England, and both of those are connected to the national rail network. The Swanage Railway ran through services (using a heritage diesel train) last summer and I used it a couple of times. Sadly, they report that the economic of it didn't work and it won't be happening again this summer; the way I read the report, this is not just a "breather year" - rather a long term change that culls the connecting service to Wareham on a permanent basis of until something changes that allows it to make sense. The Railway to Minehead has supported a number of limited services - not of them permanent - in which
GWR▸ have provided a connecting train form Taunton to Bishops Lydeard from where the heritage train may be taken to Minehead. Again, nothing permanent there either.
Both Swanage and Minehead are significant towns - so why are the linking services so parlous and basically failing when many hearts wish them to work? Read back to the start of this article and you'll see how so many passenger flows are combined to make economic sense on a single mass transit system. And contrast that to the trains which provide a rail link in these experiments to Swanage and to Minehead. They are aimed at and tunes for just a single market - the railway based arrivals to the heritage railway and whilst they may do an excellent job of trawling that pool and catching all the fish, the pool is not big enough to justify the cost of the trawler - not cheap when you include special network trains or through running of heritage ones. So - I'm disappointed but not shocked that the through services / regular rail connections all the way to Swanage and Minehead have failed to have a firm ongoing financial foundation.
So what's the way forward? I'm going to offer two solutions:
1. Run through trains on no more than a handful of days, generally using trains and crews from main line special or open access operators;
DfT» contracted service providers such as
SWR» and GWR would need DfT clearance - may be possible, I suppose, but ea extra level of complexity. The financial model is that lots of punters who will pay though the nose on an excursion, and the daily operating costs of main line stock and crews will not be there.
2. Take the bull by the horns and provide a service that works for the commuters, the people going to court or to hospital, the students, the people travelling to and from their holidays, the people going shopping and all the other flows IN ADDITION TO the heritage / connecting services. Mass Transit 101 - design your transport system to provide for as many people as possible as well as possible.
I am writing this from Sicily. There is a lot of old stuff around here and it's looking really sad. A number of stations have been closed and there are rusted and part pulled up tracks. But in the midst of that, from where I have been so far new platforms and new infrastructure is being built within or replacing the old. Deep breath to see some of the losses at times, but wonder at seeing all the work that's going on, and indeed today being on a modern electric train busy it was uncomfortable.
Is there something from these Sicily comments to learn for the Swanage and Minehead branches? Today I went to Agrigento (population 55,000) and saw some of what has been done and is being done on that branch. Some stations gone. Other renewed or being renewed. Some sections of line re-aligned. Signalling all modernised - colour lights, automated on and off single lines so there's about 30 seconds from one train coming off the single track to another one going on, and electrics overhead. They look spindly compared to the hardware we see on GWR. Now that is the reality of modernisation. What might it mean for the
UK▸ branches I am mentioning?
Let's look at a model for them. And this is dangerous speculation stuff from me. In both cases I would look to providing an all day, every day, all year service to cover as many of the major flows that could be covered as possible. That's the general area traffic, PLUS the heritage traffic, PLUS the arriving and departing holiday makers because these are holiday destinations. Much as I would like to see overhead wires to Minehead and third rail to Swanage, I'm thinking bi-mode technology to keep the infrastructure electrically safe and keep places like Blue Anchor and Corfe Castle with a degree of heritage retained. But there is going to need to be a degree of updating to cut down on the staffing needs, and a degree of stations missed out on at least some journeys.
Looking back, I speculated about a timetable for Minehead that runs heritage trains in season during the day (and those are short days) and national network trains at other times - and a lot of the traffic they pick up will be the leisure traffic - holiday arrivals, day trips to the seaside (sorry, we may abstract some traffic from Weymouth) and also a huge opportunity for one way heritage trips - arrive on a steam train, have a great day in [Minehead/Swanage] and leave on the late network train. It's all about mass transit and handling all of the thousands of individual opportunities to make up the mass. The heritage operation becomes a part of mass transit - supporting the whole population and economy of the area, and with a financial model that will work for the future without a desparate need to push up heritage fares to break even - rather an ability to grow income by growing passenger numbers.
Where am I going?
I am nothing is not a public transport campaigner - a supporter and a promoter of the good systems for getting people around. And a heritage return trip is marginal to public transport; slightly less marginal where it connect in by rail. Frustratinly, we have the elements to do something really, really good, reliable, long term stable for Swanage, Minehead and we could add others. It need at element of give and take from both the Network Rail "side" and the heritage "side" - so much that they are no longer "side"s but partners in the same operation.
It's a dream. It's not going to be Utopia, but could it still be reality.
Edit - to add picture. Please note my pictures show people in a railway setting and not trains.