How bad will good be?

[whole diary]

[CyclingSid]

Watch this space
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-bad-news-rail-fares-are-going-to-rise-the-good-news-it-wont-be-in-double-figures-2c27t5vqb?amp

[Surrey 455]

Watch this space
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-bad-news-rail-fares-are-going-to-rise-the-good-news-it-wont-be-in-double-figures-2c27t5vqb?amp

I hope The Times is right. Unfortunately I can't read all of that article because of the paywall. A Google search shows that the Mail and the Express are speculating a 12% increase.
My computer fan has just gone in to overdrive trying to cope with all the ads and other rubbish on the Mail website!

[ChrisB]

Like previously, I doubt any announcement will be made on Wednesday (or indeed until nearer the rise date)  & we'll be left guessing.

[didcotdean]

The BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) reports:

A Department for Transport spokeswoman said: "The government is taking decisive action to reduce the impact inflation will have on rail fares during the cost of living crisis and will not be increasing fares as much as the July RPI^▸ (Revenue Protection Inspector, or Retail Price Index, depending on context) figure.

Really all future uses of RPI should be binned off as it has become a discredited measure.

[ChrisB]

Totally agre, but try telling the unions that....

[Clan Line]

Like previously, I doubt any announcement will be made on Wednesday (or indeed until nearer the rise date)  & we'll be left guessing.

Of course not..............the line will be...."if the RMT^▸ (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers) want 12%, someone has to pay for it !"

[stuving]

Like previously, I doubt any announcement will be made on Wednesday (or indeed until nearer the rise date)  & we'll be left guessing.

Well, here has been a quote from a DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) spokeswoman - from the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

A Department for Transport spokeswoman said: "The government is taking decisive action to reduce the impact inflation will have on rail fares during the cost of living crisis and will not be increasing fares as much as the July RPI^▸ (Revenue Protection Inspector, or Retail Price Index, depending on context) figure.

"We are also again delaying the increase to March 2023, temporarily freezing fares for passengers to travel at a lower price for the entirety of January and February as we continue to take steps to help struggling households."

[ChrisB]

The rate in March 2023 or now? hmmm.

[stuving]

The rate in March 2023 or now? hmmm.

But that does not link the March 2023 increase to any rate! That's the point - it decouples the rise from the July RPI^▸ (Revenue Protection Inspector, or Retail Price Index, depending on context) to be announced next week, and says it will be next March. What it doesn't say is when that rise will be announced - and of course what the increase will be. (Last time the announcement came in December.)

[ChrisB]

What I meant was is the rise % going to be less than RPI^▸ (Revenue Protection Inspector, or Retail Price Index, depending on context) in July or less than RPI in the month that it will be announced? They didn’t say….and those figures might be very different! ie more than July but less than when announced.

[CyclingSid]

Breaking news
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-62566828
CPI^▸ (Consumer Prices Index - a measure of inflation) for July is 10.1%

[ChrisB]

And RPI^▸ (Revenue Protection Inspector, or Retail Price Index, depending on context)% is 12.3% for July

[Electric train]

Politically the 'zombie' government will have to act for a number of reasons, -
It would not look good to say to the electorate 'there is nothing we can do about the Global situation driving up costs'
It would play straight into the Rail Union's hands that rail fares increase by 10 or 12% but our members only get 4%

[ChrisB]

Rail fares these days make up a lot less of running costs these days, I’m not sure that would be a valid argument any longer. It would have done pre-pandemic of course