Members - what do your summer travel plans look like?

[whole diary]

[TaplowGreen]

It's interesting, perhaps telling that even in a forum for those with a particular interest in rail travel, over 50% so far (albeit of a smallish sample) are planning on travelling less by train this summer.

[IndustryInsider]

I wouldn’t blame anyone for making less journeys by train this year - strikes and staff shortages are clearly going to cause problems. 

Same goes for people taking less flights, less ferries and less road trips, as all are likely to be affected.  I read of delays at Dover today, planned motorway go-slows (not to mention fuel costs) and we all know what a state the airlines are in currently.

[broadgage]

Staying at home is looking increasingly attractive ! perhaps with the odd local day out by heritage railway. Or by horse drawn cart.

Railways not doing very well for reasons already noted.

Airlines and airports seem to be in a long term state of chaos, mainly lack of staff but airport infrastructure failures are also a problem.

Motorways overcrowded and hit by protests of two different sorts. One lot calling for restrictions on and a reduction in fuel used, and the other lot calling for cheaper fuel in order that people can use more of it.

Ferries have just about recovered from the P and O debacle, but are now hit by major delays at Dover.

What next ?
Extreme Autumn or winter weather.
Fuel shortages.
Terrorist attacks on transport infrastructure or fuel supply.
A new pandemic.
A new war.
Civil disorder/large scale rioting.

[LiskeardRich]

I wouldn’t blame anyone for making less journeys by train this year - strikes and staff shortages are clearly going to cause problems. 

Same goes for people taking less flights, less ferries and less road trips, as all are likely to be affected.  I read of delays at Dover today, planned motorway go-slows (not to mention fuel costs) and we all know what a state the airlines are in currently.

Are the airlines in the state the media portray? Or easy targets?
Tui the worst portrayed by the media released that less than 0.5% of their flights were cancelled or delayed in June. How does this compare to rail TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company)? Those 0.5% are getting all the media, whereas the 99.5% without issue isn’t newsworthy

[IndustryInsider]

By what metric is a flight classed as ‘delayed’?

[grahame]

What next ?

Always the prophet of doom?  

It's a relief that we (individual, country, world) seemingly bounce back from most of these things, all be it with updated / altered metric to take account of the new.

I'm also noting that (at the time of writing) half the votes are saying "I will use trains less", with the remaining half of the votes spread all across all the other options put together.

Two things crop up time and again from members posts
* Travelling less because of service reliability concerns (a whole load of factors)
* Travelling less because of the drop off of face to face business in favour of online meetings and remote working

We are a small sample and we cannot extend our result to the nation - we are characterised by being regular users and knoweldgable speakers for public transport in the first place, which is not typical of a random sample of the population.

[IndustryInsider]

One thing is for sure, the whole forum could take a break from travelling and many trains will still be packed, cancellations or not!

[LiskeardRich]

By what metric is a flight classed as ‘delayed’?

It’s proportionate to distance travelled.

Flight distance   How long the delay has to be
Less than 1,500km   2 hours
Between 1,500km and 3,500km   3 hours
More than 3,500km   4 hours

[IndustryInsider]

Thanks…no wonder such a ‘good’ figure has been announced then! 

But, yes, the media do hype it…just as they always do with railways I guess?

[broadgage]

What next ?

Always the prophet of doom?  

It's a relief that we (individual, country, world) seemingly bounce back from most of these things, all be it with updated / altered metric to take account of the new.

I'm also noting that (at the time of writing) half the votes are saying "I will use trains less", with the remaining half of the votes spread all across all the other options put together.

Two things crop up time and again from members posts
* Travelling less because of service reliability concerns (a whole load of factors)
* Travelling less because of the drop off of face to face business in favour of online meetings and remote working

We are a small sample and we cannot extend our result to the nation - we are characterised by being regular users and knowledgeable speakers for public transport in the first place, which is not typical of a random sample of the population.

Yes I am rather a prophet of doom.
Many of my doomerish predictions have come true or are clearly underway. Not just railway related but also regarding climate change/extreme weather, and energy prices.

[LiskeardRich]

Thanks…no wonder such a ‘good’ figure has been announced then! 

But, yes, the media do hype it…just as they always do with railways I guess?

The media is making out everyone is being stranded all over the place but the stats don’t support it being that bad. They’ve found the few hundred people who’ve had issue and exaggerated it. Could find a similar number of affected rail passengers too!

[GBM]

One thing is for sure, the whole forum could take a break from travelling and many trains will still be packed, cancellations or not!

As I believe I saw yesterday on journeycheck. Can't remember the times, but one midday Paddington to Penzance full and standing at Paddington & it's opposite number Penzance to Paddington, full and standing (at Plymouth?)

[grahame]

Thanks…no wonder such a ‘good’ figure has been announced then! 

But, yes, the media do hype it…just as they always do with railways I guess?

The media is making out everyone is being stranded all over the place but the stats don’t support it being that bad. They’ve found the few hundred people who’ve had issue and exaggerated it. Could find a similar number of affected rail passengers too!

I think it's patchy - take a look at this (click on to get it bigger):

It's looking at Swindon to Westbury and Westbury to Weymouth services over the last week.

Now, yes, the hot weather caused problems on some days.  As strikes would cause problems on other days, staff shortages on others, diversions and failures on others so the pattern is not unusual.

* These lines are far more prone to cancellations and serious delays than others

* When something does go wrong, the wait for the next train is significant - not just "there will be another along in 30 minutes"

* For a day trip to work, all four trains needed must run

* Connections need to work too - no good a train being 15 minutes late when a connecting train leaves as scheduled from Westbury

I always travel with a backup plan ... and I like to pride myself on knowing things well enough to make decisions on my agenda changes on the fly.

[TonyK]

Tui the worst portrayed by the media released that less than 0.5% of their flights were cancelled or delayed in June. How does this compare to rail TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company)? Those 0.5% are getting all the media, whereas the 99.5% without issue isn’t newsworthy

The first night of our May holiday in Cyprus, booked via Tui, was spent in the Marriott Hotel in Bristol. Although our intended aircraft was on the tarmac at Bristol at the time it should have left, we ended up on a different type from a different  airline, flown from Portugal empty to Bristol, then back empty to Lisbon from Paphos. I was most upset, although the compensation put a smile back on my face. Tui's handling of the matter at the airport was pretty poor - inaccurate information posted on the boards, no staff around, and when someone did venture out of the bunker, they knew less than I already knew from various aviation websites. There were other cancellations, as well as overbooking, but that wasn't June, and they may have got their act together and massaged the stats a bit by then.

Yes I am rather a prophet of doom.
Many of my doomerish predictions have come true or are clearly underway. Not just railway related but also regarding climate change/extreme weather, and energy prices.

I can't argue with the first sentence. 

There are a few of your prescient offerings that haven't come to pass yet, but the beauty of being a prophet of doom is that if someone says it hasn't happened, you can always say "Not yet".

[CyclingSid]

An article in i newspaper
https://inews.co.uk/news/how-railways-are-driving-a-new-british-seaside-boom-1735085
on the increase in summer leisure traffic on the railways
St Ives up 45%
Newquay up 33%
Bournemouth 50%

No figures from Southern but estimate of 20% increase on Saturdays.

No figures for Cross-Country, the Reading - Bournemouth yesterday was a 4-car cattle truck.