Rolling stock projections - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[grahame]

https://eversholtrail.co.uk/news/rail-industry-confirms-future-potential-demand-for-new-trains-and-carriages/

09.03.2015

Rail industry confirms future potential demand for new trains and carriages

The rail industry has come together to publish the third annual update of its Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy for the Rail Industry.

As with the previous two editions, this has been produced through collaboration between rolling stock owners and the Rail Delivery Group, representing train operators and Network Rail, and is an example of the rail industry working together to deliver strategic leadership on key issues.

The report outlines the best way to meet rising passenger demand over the next thirty years and also how to maximise the potential benefits of the increased capacity that will be provided on the existing network and HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)). Projections for the quantities of new rolling stock that will be delivered in the next five years have been revised upwards because of the growth in passenger demand, and reflect the recent announcements by train operating companies of additional new trains for the c2c, Thameslink, ScotRail, Caledonian Sleeper and South West Trains routes, and by TfL^» (Transport for London - about) for the London Overground.

The strategy highlights the many customer benefits of electrification, including increased fleet reliability, improved train punctuality, better acceleration to shorten journey times, greater train capacity and reduced noise, vibration and emissions.
Taking into account the Government’s commitment in principle to continue electrifying the network, the strategy forecasts that:
Based on future passenger demand, an increase in the size of the fleet of between 52% and 99% will be required over the next 30 years

The proportion of vehicles using electric traction will rise from 69% today to 92 – 95% in 30 years time

Between 13,000 and 19,000 new electric vehicles will be required over the period, with an average of between eight and 12 needing to be delivered every week, compared with four per week in the five years to April 2014

Around 3,350 new electric vehicles will need to be delivered by April 2019, with orders already placed for 90% of this total. A further 428 vehicles for Crossrail, the Intercity Express Programme and Essex Thameside have already been commited for delivery after this date.

The report supports the principle that rolling stock procurement should, in most cases, be market-based and franchise-led.  By putting train operators and fleet owners at the centre of planning and delivering rolling stock, better value for money can be achieved, as for example is to be the case for the new and additional rolling stock to be procured for the North of England.

Of course, things have rather changed ... reduced travel, reduced service, reduced electrification.  But even on those services that remain, there's a shortage of trains at the moment.   For today, from the local / regional fleet based at St Philips Marsh we have the following short forms

05:20 Worcester Shrub Hill to Bristol Temple Meads due 06:53
05:26 Weymouth to Filton Abbey Wood due 08:29
05:51 Bristol Temple Meads to Portsmouth Harbour due 08:27
06:28 Cardiff Central to Portsmouth Harbour due 09:53
07:12 Bristol Temple Meads to Severn Beach due 07:55
07:30 Warminster to Great Malvern due 10:28
08:01 Severn Beach to Bristol Temple Meads due 08:44
08:50 Filton Abbey Wood to Westbury due 09:49
09:10 Bristol Temple Meads to Avonmouth due 09:39
09:23 Portsmouth Harbour to Cardiff Central due 12:47
09:46 Avonmouth to Weston-Super-Mare due 11:00
10:23 Portsmouth Harbour to Cardiff Central due 13:46
10:41 Great Malvern to Brighton due 16:15
11:10 Weston-Super-Mare to Severn Beach due 12:23
13:01 Severn Beach to Bristol Temple Meads due 13:43
13:30 Cardiff Central to Portsmouth Harbour due 16:52
13:40 Westbury to Great Malvern due 16:29
14:12 Bristol Temple Meads to Avonmouth due 14:39
14:30 Cardiff Central to Portsmouth Harbour due 17:52
14:46 Avonmouth to Weston-Super-Mare due 16:00
16:10 Weston-Super-Mare to Severn Beach due 17:23
16:43 Great Malvern to Westbury due 19:30
17:02 Brighton to Bristol Parkway due 20:56
17:23 Portsmouth Harbour to Cardiff Central due 20:46
18:01 Severn Beach to Bristol Temple Meads due 18:53
18:24 Portsmouth Harbour to Cardiff Central due 21:47
19:12 Bristol Temple Meads to Avonmouth due 19:39
19:46 Avonmouth to Bristol Temple Meads due 20:17
20:06 Westbury to Cheltenham Spa due 22:05
20:57 Bristol Temple Meads to Worcester Shrub Hill due 22:27
21:21 Bristol Parkway to Portsmouth & Southsea due 00:15
21:30 Cardiff Central to Frome due 23:18
22:16 Cheltenham Spa to Swindon due 23:12
22:30 Cardiff Central to Bristol Temple Meads due 23:34
22:36 Worcester Shrub Hill to Bristol Temple Meads due 00:32
23:17 Swindon to Gloucester due 01:11

Some, in truth, won't matter.  I would not expect the 20:06 Westbury to Cheltenham Spa to be full and standing at 2 coaches rather than 3, for example.

But ... trains like the 08:18 arrival into Temple Meads - which this year doubles up to take the traffic of the popular SWR^» (South Western Railway - about) train that was culled in December - at 2 carriage is going to be interesting.  GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) promised us 5 carriages in a meeting on 30th November last - not exactly a "pre-covid" plan, nor a historic promise.   

Really, the wonders of 2015 from Eversholt seem to have fallen over. Services reduced from what they expected, and still they are running so many trains shorter than they are supposed to.

[grahame]

Pinging this to the top - where do we stand today? 

[ChrisB]

Updating the subject header?

[Chris from Nailsea]

Fair comment: this ongoing topic is no longer specific to any particular 'on this day', so I've broadened it here.

CfN. 

[anthony215]

Modern railways is suggesting that GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) are considering up with Chiltern and East-West rail   and putting together a joint order for a fleet of battery electric units and partial electrification.

Certainly it would help GWR if the missing sections of electrification could be filled it however  gwr said didcot to Oxford and back is well within range of current battery units.

 In theory then you could fit batteries to the 387s

[ray951]

If batteries are added to trains so that electric trains can run between Didcot and Oxford instead of not completing the half-finished Didcot-Oxford electrification then I would suggest that we no longer live in a serious country.

[anthony215]

If batteries are added to trains so that electric trains can run between Didcot and Oxford instead of not completing the half-finished Didcot-Oxford electrification then I would suggest that we no longer live in a serious country.

Nothing to stop it being a short term thing. Don't forget it free up a class 166/165 or so for use elsewhere however I agree we need didcot to Coventry wired up not just for GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) but freight too.

Wires also need.to.go.to Bristol Tm and Swansea ASAP.

[John D]

ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) today (20 March) published latest passenger figures covering Oct-Dec 2024

GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) has :
8% increase in passengers per table 1.1 (compared to Oct-Dec a year earlier)
5% increase in passenger km per table 2.2 (so average journey length down as 3% below change in numbers of passengers)
3% increase in train km per table 4.1 (so not keeping up with passenger growth, in other words busier trains)
5% in vehicle km per table 5.1 (so marginally longer trains on average as 2% more than train km)

Dividing last two suggests GWR trains have average 5.93 carriages, which is rather more than most local services in Wessex get

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/voqeicwn/passenger-rail-usage-oct-dec-2024.pdf

Anyone else think it odd that passenger numbers increased in 2024, but GWR didn't increase its train fleet that year (it actually withdrew some without replacement)

[Noggin]

Wires also need.to.go.to Bristol Tm and Swansea ASAP.

At the risk of taking this thread off-topic - WECA^» (West of England Combined Authority - about) contributed to a study of whether Bristol TM^▸ (Train Manager, or possibly Ticket Machine, depending on context) to Parkway could be done more cheaply than previously expected.

WECA elections are coming up now that Mr Norris has a Westminster job - I bet he'd love to be able to announce electrification of TM in the run-up to the elections. Whether HM Treasury and the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) would cooperate is another question entirely. 

[Clan Line]

Dividing last two suggests GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) trains have average 5.93 carriages, which is rather more than most local services in Wessex get

I have noticed that, of late, the promised "5 car" service for Cardiff - Portsmouth has now shrunk to one 5 car formation doing one round trip per day  - and that only actually becomes 5 cars at Temple Meads on the outbound leg ! So don't join it at Cardiff expecting plenty of empty seats .........