South Western Railways Waterloo - Bristol services axed

[whole diary]

[grahame]

What's the final date by which a decision on these services has to be made?

It depends on your view.

June 2021 - we didn't know about the decision until after it had been made.

Political change has resulted in changes as short notice in the past; there is historic precedent for a line being saved at two weeks out.   And I suspect that an instruction to run a train at very short notice indeed could be met if there were an imperative.

[Mark A]

Looking to a future without the through trains...

In particular, journeys from Warminster after December, residents of that town have reason to be aggrieved that from the end of this year, the service seems to be optimised for... people coming down from London to visit the Defense cluster there. There's a convenient through train in both directions.

Waterloo 07:50 arrive Warminster 09:43
Warminster 14:23 arrive Waterloo 16:19

So, out to Warminster, a meeting or two, spot of lunch, and head back to the city state that is London.

A resident of Warminster wanting to visit London for the day does not fare so well. They'll want to be seeking advance fares on the 07:48 through train as the day return's not accepted. It *is* on the next train, at 8:11, which involves 2 changes, with London Waterloo reached at 10:23.

They'll then need to be careful about the return, as the last train for some time that does *not* involve nearly an hour's hanging about at Salisbury will be the 17:50 from Waterloo - so while the 19:20 through train might have pulled them away, the impending service pattern has steered them on to a possibly crowded peak-time train, which, after a 22 minute wait at Salisbury, gets them back at 20:20.

(Nothing after the 17:20, nothing with connections that is, until the 21:20 from Waterloo - the last of the day, a 19 minute wait at Salisbury and back to Warminster at 23:20).

It's almost palpable that the region hosting one end of the Bristol to Waterloo through service receives 3 times the spend per head of population on Transport than does the other. Presumably, someone, somewhere, will have done a heat map of transport spending per head of population for the UK^▸ (United Kingdom).

A quick search and I've only found the extent to which defence spending is tilted towards... the south west, and to a lesser extent the south east, I'd not realised that (2018 figures on this link...)

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/mod-regional-expenditure-with-uk-industry-and-supported-employment-201819/finance-and-economics-annual-statistical-bulletin-mod-regional-expenditure-with-uk-industry-and-commerce-and-supported-employment-201819

Mark

[grahame]

I've followed up

To London - 4 trains per day
07:48, 11:48 and 15:52 are said to join London trains at Salisbury in addiiton to the 14:23


From London
Just the one through journey per day at 07:50, arriving 09:44.

If you do NOT want to change at Salisbury, you can also arrive at 11:43 and at 12:42 changing at Basingstoke onto the mindblowingly busy Basingstoke to Yeovil Junction via Westbury services.  I was at Westbury last Tusday and saw the 11:52 arrival - obviously starting from Salisbury this week, so it was hard to judge how busy it would be normally.   It looked very quiet; 3 passengers got off and somewhat less than 10 connected into it off the arrival from Paddington.

I took a look at evening return, wondering if changing at Basingstoke and Salisbury would be somewhat better. No such luck; there's a 19:39 from Basingstoke into Salisbury at 20:21, onward train at 20:42 to Warminster at 21:02.   Slight problem is that for th xx:39 off Basingstoke, you have fast London arrivals at xx:47, xx:59 and xx:06 only now and - guess what - the :06 is the Exeter train anyway.  So all you can do is split your hanging around between two stations, and have a marginally shorter total wait because the services call at Overton, Whitchurch and Grateley give you longer on the train.  I wonder what people returning to those three stations from London think of their Basingstoke wait when they used to have through trains every hour.

[grahame]

From this morning:



Some examples - all from Salisbury for consistency of example

06:34 Salisbury to Cheltenham Spa due 09:03

Facilities on the 06:34 Salisbury to Cheltenham Spa due 09:03.
This is due to a fault on this train.
Will be formed of 2 coaches instead of 3.

(that's going to be fun north of Swindon!!)

07:19 Salisbury to Cardiff Central due 09:48

Facilities on the 07:19 Salisbury to Cardiff Central due 09:48.
This is due to a fault on this train.
Will be formed of 4 coaches instead of 5.

17:42 Salisbury to Cardiff Central due 19:49

Facilities on the 17:42 Salisbury to Cardiff Central due 19:49.
This is due to a fault on this train.
Will be formed of 4 coaches instead of 5.

21:42 Salisbury to Cardiff Central due 23:49

Facilities on the 21:42 Salisbury to Cardiff Central due 23:49.
This is due to a fault on this train.
Will be formed of 2 coaches instead of 3.

Sorry to have to say it, but I have little confidence in GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) providing specified capacity - stock shortage to what's specified has become routine.  It's been going on for a long time and should have been fixed according to promises and commitments long ago.

Where a service is overspecified, it might be just a technical problem.   Where it leaves a train seriously overcrowded - as it will with the 06:34 (above) along part of its route, a service of which I have personal experience, it's a serious matter.

It would seem that new specifications talking of route capacity are based on the false premise that the GWR services routinely run, and run to the number of carriages timetabled / contracted and to timetable too.  So I dread to think what we will see next year if we're 7 services down northwards from Salisbury.  Please don't promise me that "it will be fixed" and "GWR will provide [almost] all services, on time and at specified length" - heard it before, and it hasn't happened, so why should it this time;  promises more in hope than expectation, DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) decisions based on theory not on what's going on in practise.

I am aware that GWR have suppliers and contractors who may have failed in turn to deliver to them - so this is not totally a crack at GWR. But they carry the can of ultimate supply, and responsibility for ensuring their supply chain is reliable.

I am also aware (note for when this is archived) that I'm writing while the Portsmouth - Cardiff service is split due to the accident at Fisherton Tunnel.   Dear reader, you would see the same pattern if you looked at the diagram 10 days ago before the accident.

* We need the capacity provided by the SWR^» (South Western Railway - about) trains for regional journeys
* We need the incremental frequency too provided by these extra seven journeys to encourage rail use
* We need the no-change journey opportunities of the Bristol to Waterloo through trains to encourage rail use

To give you an idea of how bad GWR are at present, and how much business they're losing ... my three planned journeys in the last week:
* Last Tuesday - I went to Westbury but my lunch meeting was aborted due to my friend's train from Dorchester being delayed there so long it wasn't worth travelling - no time for lunch. 
* My Saturday trip to Frome - cancelled train would have left me travelling at a time at which return connections failed and I would have missed a following commitment - I drove.
* Yesterday, I fancied a trip to Weymouth - gave up on the idea when the train was flagged as delayed. (turns out it ran, nearly an hour late into Weymouth)

[Mark A]

Wera Hobhouse the MP^▸ (Member of Parliament) for Bath and North East Somerset to meet the minister for transport, as reported in the Bath Echo.

https://www.bathecho.co.uk/news/politics/mp-meet-transport-minister-train-service-cancellation-96441/

[Mark A]

Sorry to have to say it, but I have little confidence in GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) providing specified capacity - stock shortage to what's specified has become routine.  It's been going on for a long time and should have been fixed according to promises and commitments long ago.

The poor connections at Salisbury. These are deliberate, surely? The Portsmouth to Cardiff service is so capacity-constrained that if good connections were made at Salisbury, passenger numbers would quickly be far more of a problem than they are - even if it only provokes an increase from the, was it 40,000 a year figure from SWR^» (South Western Railway - about) to the four-fold increase figure of around 200,000+ from Graham.

Salisbury, or possibly now Basingstoke, are awkward boundaries between the somewhat adequate provision in the south east, the rapidly improving provision in Wales - while in between the two... well, I'm not sure... some increasingly congested roads, coupled with a road building programme to provoke more of the same, certainly.

[grahame]

Wera Hobhouse the MP^▸ (Member of Parliament) for Bath and North East Somerset to meet the minister for transport, as reported in the Bath Echo.

https://www.bathecho.co.uk/news/politics/mp-meet-transport-minister-train-service-cancellation-96441/

Excellent ... good to read that. Thank you, Wera

On the petition, 409 of Wera's constituents have signed.  That's coming up for three TIMES the number of constituents needed (but across the country) to get considered for a debate in parliament, and twenty seven TIMES the number for. written answer.

409 is a lot - but it pales into insignificance when compared to the 1441 in the constituency where I live (Chippenham, with Bradford-on-Avon station). Michelle Donelan, our MP has also been on the case, but very much has her hands full with lots of other matter too.  Now being a minister who attends cabinet, she very much has loyalty pulled in multiple directions when her colleagues are set in ways that are a major local problem to us - in some ways I'm very sympathetic to her with that, but it's a career choice for her so that sympathy has to be somewhat muted.

And it addition to the 409 for Wera and 1441 for Michelle, 1319 have signed in the constituency of Dr Andrew Murrison (Trowbridge) , and nearly 300 (Keynsham Station, near the edge the constituency) for Jacob Rees-Mogg. Andrew has been on the case too.  They're both to a greater or lesser extent pulled in the same multiple directions as Michelle Donelan and I offer my sympathy, but still ask that they act to represent their constituents first and foremost.

[Clan Line]

Sorry to have to say it, but I have little confidence in GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) providing specified capacity - stock shortage to what's specified has become routine.  It's been going on for a long time and should have been fixed according to promises and commitments long ago.

It would seem that new specifications talking of route capacity are based on the false premise that the GWR services routinely run, and run to the number of carriages timetabled / contracted and to timetable too.  So I dread to think what we will see next year if we're 7 services down northwards from Salisbury.  Please don't promise me that "it will be fixed" and "GWR will provide [almost] all services, on time and at specified length" - heard it before, and it hasn't happened, so why should it this time;  promises more in hope than expectation, DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) decisions based on theory not on what's going on in practise.

I note that today (Sun) it takes until the 17th service departs Warminster (@1612) that a five coach train puts in an appearance. Perhaps to say that they are as common as rocking horse manure should now be amended to read Unicorn manure !!!

[IndustryInsider]

There will be little improvement until the 769s allow for lots more Turbos to head west.

[grahame]

There will be little improvement until the 769s allow for lots more Turbos to head west.

Sadly, I think you're right ... but that leads to a couple of questions:
1. When will the 769s be releasing turbos?
2. Why can't the units that would have run services elsewhere in GB^▸ (Great Britain) that aren't back yet be used short term to cover the gap?

[IndustryInsider]

1) Next year (if lucky!).
2) Would need suitable units and DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) approval.  Not impossible, but unlikely.

[broadgage]

There will be little improvement until the 769s allow for lots more Turbos to head west.

Sadly, I think you're right ... but that leads to a couple of questions:
1. When will the 769s be releasing turbos?
2. Why can't the units that would have run services elsewhere in GB^▸ (Great Britain) that aren't back yet be used short term to cover the gap?

And for how many years have we been told "JAM TOMORROW" WRT^▸ (with regard to ) to rolling stock provision and capacity improvements ?

Four or five years ago we were told that the IET^▸ (Intercity Express Train) fleet would be ample and would provide loads of extra capacity, not just on the routes served by IETs but elsewhere, by freeing up stock displaced by IETs.

With the failure of the IET project this was not achieved.

The next great hope was the 769s, also failed.

I doubt that either IETs or 769s will EVER achieve the initially hoped for availability.

[Clan Line]

Further to my post yesterday regarding the number of 5 coach GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) trains at Warminster..................

A quick gallop through RTT^» (Real Time Trains - website) for today reveals:

62 GWR movements
First 5 coach train @ 1012 - 22nd train of the day (rush hour ? what rush hour ??)
Only ten 5 coach train movements all day - 4 of which are the arrival, reversal and departure of the same 5 coaches !!!! (5 coaches to Worcester Foregate St - just what we need)

[grahame]

And for how many years have we been told "JAM TOMORROW" WRT^▸ (with regard to ) to rolling stock provision and capacity improvements ?

The 769s were first mentioned here as - I recall - a relatively quick and cheap way of getting more trains compared to new build - in the spring of 2018. Not sure when the plan was to have them running, but it does seem to have taken a lot longer than most of us would probably have wished - approaching 4 years now.

[Clan Line]

This isn't a 5 coach train - this is a GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) 5 coach train !!!              (1012 from Warminster this morning - see my earlier post)



RTT^» (Real Time Trains - website) has now been amended - that leaves the mid afternoon "shuffle" as the only 5 coach movements here today.