Might train services be cut from May?

[whole diary]

[IndustryInsider]

Basically the answer is "we don't know" and nor does anyone else.

Yes, it would be a fool who tries to predict things to any precise level yet.  There will clearly be a drop in commuting, it could quite possibly be a very significant one, but until we reach the promised land of next summer we won't know with any degree of certainty at all.  I have several friends who previously commuted (both by car and train), but are now working from home.  Roughly half are very happy never to go to back into the office again, and the other half are gagging to get back there to avoid going stir crazy.

I've mentioned it before, but the worst case scenario for the railways is that the majority of people go back into the office Tuesday-Thursday.  Fortunately for the railway, that is the worst case scenario for companies too as they still have to lease the majority of the current office space if that's the case.  

I think a 'good' outcome for the railway will be if commuting drops off by around a quarter to a third over all five days of the working week.  That way, lots of expensive to lease stock, and a few train paths that really test punctuality, can be gotten rid of and a much more balanced use of resources throughout the week and weekend can be achieved, but crucially the network (and the off peak service) can remain largely as is.

[grahame]

On questions such as this we can speculate all we like, but it is always best to base forecasts on observed and observable trend, and not crystal ball gazing.

Let's hope that nothing irreversibly daft is done!

If you have genuine suspicions that something "irreversibly daft" might be in the offing, then i wouldnt necessarily wait and see what that might turn out to be.

I can assure you, Lee, that my eyes (for what they're worth - they don't have the energy and clarity they perhaps once did) and other here and elsewhere are open.  There is much more than "wait and see" hope.  I am going to stop short of writing up a series of risks and daft ideas (certainly in public), since these seeds can fall into nutrient-rich ground and grow.

[grahame]

Basically the answer is "we don't know" and nor does anyone else. It could be very different or it could drift back to the same.  Only a very small percentage modal shift from car to rail on business and leisure travel would more than make up for any lost commuter traffic. 

My bolding - and in that could (and perhaps should) lie an enormous marketing opportunity - the opportunity to adjust fares, routes and timetables and bring in more passengers on greener journeys. Perhaps we won't need 12 to 15 IETs^▸ (Intercity Express Train) out of Paddington to Reading in an hour; use released capacity (lots of indirect cascade stuff) to beef up lengthen leisure services and provide products such as very long distance; I am minded that a biMode could run all the way from Bromsgrove to Glasgow or Edinburgh on electric, and a 5+5 on that run could split at Stafford or Crewe. BUT it would need to be affordable; Sail Rail has managed "any station in a zone to any station in Ireland / Holland" type ticketing and I'm sure it's not beyond the wit of some people we know to come up with a similar product.  Then sell it and don't keep it as an embarrassing secret in case it gets over-subscribed.

[TaplowGreen]

As far as 1 and 2 are concerned things are more predictable than you might think.

Remote working/"Working from home" is now a reality for vast numbers of people, and in many ways very palatable to them, and to their employers, who in straitened times can downsize their Office accommodation and make huge savings, especially in the big cities. The concept is now proven.

When things do get back to "normal", office presence of 1 or at most 2 days a week is more likely - many large and medium sized businesses are gearing up for this already and flagging it in their job advertisements.

As for shopping - well if you're continuing working from home, why not continue to do your shopping online and have it delivered there?

Point 3 falls between business and leisure - possible opportunities for the railways in the latter however they will need to improve the offering.

As to point 4, this is really where the railways should position themselves as an alternative to the car, and/or plane. Whether they are able to do so is moot, but may help to decide whether the future means expansion or contraction.

Challenges and opportunities.

With respect I think you are falling into the usual trap.

I agree that, at this moment, it looks like mass commuting as we have known it for decades has come to an end. But what we don?t know is the level to which it will return post pandemic, and if it will then remain at a new static position or increase again over time. In two, five or ten years time things may be very different again. So we think we can see the trends but we don?t know the long term situation.

For many and for many reasons working as a team in an office is preferable to working alone and isolated from colleagues. When we know for certain then that will be the time to look at recasting timetables, not now. And indeed you partially accept that by the use of terms like very likely ? even you won?t stick your neck out and say that it will happen that way!

I think you misunderstand the point I was naming under point 2, which specifically relates to railway demand. If people no longer descend in droves on Oxford Street on Queens Street Cardiff or anywhere else, this will not only have an impact on the retail sector but also the transport providers who have taken them there in the past.

Robin if you're going to prefix a response with "With respect", it's probably better that you don't then go on to misrepresent what you're responding to.

The phrase I used was "more likely", not "very likely", and I don't think reflecting what most informed commentators are suggesting (ie a significant reduction in working patterns and commuting) makes sticking one's neck out necessary.

On the contrary I'd suggest that in two, five or ten years time, given this catalyst, technology will have advanced to a place whereby remote working will become an even more efficient prospect for all concerned, with all the improvements in work/life balance and financial savings for all concerned - I think you'd be sticking your neck out to suggest otherwise - 20 years ago the whole concept of "working from home" in the way we do now barely existed- look at the world now.

This doesn't mean that people won't go into the office any more, of course human contact is very important simply that the time they spend there will be greatly reduced - many people in recent years have adopted a 4 days in/1 day at home pattern, I'd suggest that this will largely be reversed and the "office day" used for team meetings etc.

Fully understand your other points, thanks.

[eXPassenger]

I have a concern that all the discussion on the benefits of WFH^▸ (Working From Home) are around established workers.  My daughter commented that she has no problem but that her company are having major problems integrating and mentoring new joiners and graduate trainees without the functionality of an office.

[TaplowGreen]

I have a concern that all the discussion on the benefits of WFH^▸ (Working From Home) are around established workers.  My daughter commented that she has no problem but that her company are having major problems integrating and mentoring new joiners and graduate trainees without the functionality of an office.

That's a very good point, onboarding, induction etc is currently a real challenge and a colleague who has recently moved on to another role is experiencing that exact issue. He's gone to a large company who told him on "arrival" in November that he should expect to be WFH until June.

[Electric train]

I have a concern that all the discussion on the benefits of WFH^▸ (Working From Home) are around established workers.  My daughter commented that she has no problem but that her company are having major problems integrating and mentoring new joiners and graduate trainees without the functionality of an office.

That's a very good point, onboarding, induction etc is currently a real challenge and a colleague who has recently moved on to another role is experiencing that exact issue. He's gone to a large company who told him on "arrival" in November that he should expect to be WFH until June.

I agree with this, other than the necessity of working to put food on the table one key part of work is the social interaction working to a common goal etc.  We are social animals we need the human interaction.

Work patterns will change with more working from home with MS Teams, Zoom etc being a key part of work going forward perhaps reducing the long distance business travel.  Although the wider National team I work with still have the desire for face 2 face meetings, it is the meeting of collages socially that we get to know each other and ultimately improves the performance of a team.

Commuter travel patterns will change, but I sense a desire from colleges of wanting to spend some time in the office

[Robin Summerhill]

[
Robin if you're going to prefix a response with "With respect", it's probably better that you don't then go on to misrepresent what you're responding to.

The phrase I used was "more likely", not "very likely", and I don't think reflecting what most informed commentators are suggesting (ie a significant reduction in working patterns and commuting) makes sticking one's neck out necessary.

Although there is an old saying about prefacing a statement with ?with respect? is code for no respect ay all, that was not my intention and I am sorry that I gave you the impression that it was.

Use of the phrase very likely rather than more likely was no more than sloppy writing on my part and not an intentional misrepresentation.

I still maintain, however, that no one actually knows what will happen in the future, no matter how informed any commentators may claim to be. I recall, for example, informed commentators telling us that nuclear power would be too cheap to meter within my lifetime.

I still therefore hold that now is not the time to react or respond to changing travel patters until such time that we are more certain what those changes are likely to mean in the longer term.

Other than that I think we are on the same page and largely arguing semantics and emphasis. 

[Wizard]

I can?t imagine anything worse than being in my house all day every day to work, to eat, to live, to love. Luckily I?ve been working throughout and still seeing people at work. Would be going stir crazy staring at the same four walls all day every day.

[a-driver]

GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) I believe are now looking at cutting services, the original aim was to have the new timetable in next week but that?s looking extremely unlikely. A few rostering issues yet to be resolved.

The cutting of services is expected to be nationwide.


Edit:  They?re looking at 18 January to implement an emergency timetable

[smokey]

Well daily commuting will never return to pre-covid levels, this means peak hour extension of rolling stock won't be needed, (once Covid is no longer a major threat)
So stock that is laid up from around 09:30 to around 15:30 weekdays won't be needed at all, but this means that Electric stock that is already in use will become available to work on NEWLY electrified lines.
More Diesel units can go for scrap!

And with Government plans for all cars to be Electric cars in just 4 years, OK hybrid will still be allowed, I'm betting fuel duty will go UP in leaps and bounds,
And whilst all electric cars will be suitable for 90% of journeys, long distance journeys will be much slower than today.
Modern Electric cars might have a range of 200+ miles (but read the small print that's at an average speed of 27MPH.
Electric Cars aren't going to be belting up Motorways at 80MPH unless the driver wants to recharge for an hour around every hour and a half

[ellendune]

Well daily commuting will never return to pre-covid levels...

Daily commuting by all modes may never return to pre-covid levels, but a model shift from road to rail could make up for the that effect so far as rail is concerned. 

[smokey]

On questions such as this we can speculate all we like, but it is always best to base forecasts on observed and observable trend, and not crystal ball gazing.



The factors that will affect rail travel demand in future are many and various:

4 With the alternatives to the internal combustion engine that we currently have available, long distance motoring is likely to become less attractive. For example, even a car with a 300 mile battery range would need a long stop somewhere to recharge on a London to Glasgow run.

The answers to 1 and 2 cannot yet be predicted. We can speculate and we might think we know the answer, but right at this moment we don?t know we know. We will have to wait and see.

The changes due to 4 will probably see an increase in public transport use. The jury is out over whether rail, coach or air travel will reap the most benefit, as in essence that will involve individual choices to be made between cost, desire for speed and the reason for travel.

I believe that as Private car driving goes more and more 100% electric, the option for long distance driving will fall off the cliff, Driving fast in an electric Car will decrease the range by around 50% (depends just how fast), whilst the Manufacture will quote 250mile range that's at 27MPH average.
Zooming up a Motorway at 75MPH or more, very frightening to run out of juice and no juice equals no lights
Of course you will be able to take an hour's break whilst rapid charging the battery but be warned that rapid charging will depending just how rapid will deplete battery life by around 0.5 to 1% so by the time a Battery has been rapid charged 50 times the range of the battery will have fallen from 250miles to around 200 miles,
Treat a Battery kindly by giving slow overnight charge every time and the battery should outlast the car.

[Bmblbzzz]

On questions such as this we can speculate all we like, but it is always best to base forecasts on observed and observable trend, and not crystal ball gazing.



The factors that will affect rail travel demand in future are many and various:

4 With the alternatives to the internal combustion engine that we currently have available, long distance motoring is likely to become less attractive. For example, even a car with a 300 mile battery range would need a long stop somewhere to recharge on a London to Glasgow run.

The answers to 1 and 2 cannot yet be predicted. We can speculate and we might think we know the answer, but right at this moment we don?t know we know. We will have to wait and see.

The changes due to 4 will probably see an increase in public transport use. The jury is out over whether rail, coach or air travel will reap the most benefit, as in essence that will involve individual choices to be made between cost, desire for speed and the reason for travel.

I believe that as Private car driving goes more and more 100% electric, the option for long distance driving will fall off the cliff, Driving fast in an electric Car will decrease the range by around 50% (depends just how fast), whilst the Manufacture will quote 250mile range that's at 27MPH average.
Zooming up a Motorway at 75MPH or more, very frightening to run out of juice and no juice equals no lights
Of course you will be able to take an hour's break whilst rapid charging the battery but be warned that rapid charging will depending just how rapid will deplete battery life by around 0.5 to 1% so by the time a Battery has been rapid charged 50 times the range of the battery will have fallen from 250miles to around 200 miles,
Treat a Battery kindly by giving slow overnight charge every time and the battery should outlast the car.

There are problems with rapid charging: the time it takes, the effect on batteries and at the moment the sparse charger network and the diversity of charging standards (though the industry seems to be slowly converging on the American CCS type). And range is of course stated under optimal conditions, just as it is for petrol and diesel vehicles. But what evidence do you have that the range is stated at 27mph? And it's simply incorrect that loss of motive power means no lights; most if not all EVs retain a standard 12V lead-acid battery for lights, radio, etc. Oh, and running out of volts doesn't in the motive power batteries doesn't mean grinding to a sudden halt; it means going into battery-saver 'tortoise' mode, a bit like the low fuel light blinking at you in an ICE car but with restricted speed to eke out the electrons.

[smokey]

I got the 27MPH average from the small print in a manufactures Brochure, I wish I could state which one but I looked at loads.