Public transport, Climate change, Coronavirus and Brexit. Crystal Ball Time.

[whole diary]

[broadgage]

Strike bruvvers, strike !
"we deserve at least a 50% pay increase"

[Robin Summerhill]

I do sometimes wonder whether some posters on here are a lot younger than I think they are or have shorter memories than I thought they had.

As somebody who was around during the Closed Shop, two miners strikes, the British Leyland fiasco with Red Robbo and his merry band, secondary picketing, and all the rest, I get the impression that some would prefer that workers were not allowed to disagree with management at all; Is there a course on cap twisting they could all be sent on?

Compared to how things were in the 60s and 70s the trades unions have no power at all and certainly no bite. If they do actually manage to give management a nasty suck now and again then I am happy to let them get on with it.

And as regards strike action now in the pandemic when the government is picking up the wage bill, a walk out would be manna from heaven for the Chancellor of the  Exchequer. I suspect the unions have sussed that out too...

[Bmblbzzz]

Compared to how things were in the 60s and 70s the trades unions have no power at all and certainly no bite. If they do actually manage to give management a nasty suck now and again then I am happy to let them get on with it.

I guess this is a typo for "shock". Otherwise the image it brings to mind is... shocking! (Or is it correct and it's continuing the metaphor from "no bite"?)
 

[Robin Summerhill]

Compared to how things were in the 60s and 70s the trades unions have no power at all and certainly no bite. If they do actually manage to give management a nasty suck now and again then I am happy to let them get on with it.

I guess this is a typo for "shock". Otherwise the image it brings to mind is... shocking! (Or is it correct and it's continuing the metaphor from "no bite"?)
 

It was a perhaps poorly-phrased pinch from the old joke: My old lion has got no teeeth now, but he can still give you a nasty suck

Try to unthink that image you've got...

[Bmblbzzz]

I've never heard that phrase before. Anyway, the meaning is clear.

[Trowres]

Repeating the Nigel Harris quote:

What if the railway offered up a three-year pay freeze, with maybe a few top executives taking example-setting pay cuts?

I find the reaction in the foregoing posts interesting...for concentrating on the unions and ignoring the part about leadership.

[trainbuff]

Given the current situation, I?d happily accept a three year pay freeze if it helps the industry survive the crisis largely unscathed.

Myself too

[Red Squirrel]

Energy giant BP^» (Beyond Petroleum (Former name - British Petroleum) - home page) has published its 2020 'Energy Outlook' statement. This is not a forecast, but a look at various scenarios that BP may need to react to as it works towards its stated aim of transitioning from an IOC (International Oil Company) to an IEC (Integrated Energy Company).

The statement maps out three paths: Business As Usual (BAU), Rapid Transition and Net Zero. It also considers an alternative 'Delayed and Disorderly' transition.

From a public transport viewpoint, it's interesting to see that BP see 'Robotaxis' (autonomous on-demand vehicles) taking the place of many buses and private cars:

• The composition of road transportation across different modes of transport, e.g. private cars, taxis, buses etc, is affected by two significant trends over the Outlook: increasing levels of prosperity and the falling cost of shared-mobility transport services. Both trends have important implications for the pace and extent to which the transport sector is decarbonized.
• The increasing levels of prosperity and living standards in emerging economies leads to a shift away from high-occupancy forms of transport (e.g. buses) into passenger cars. This leads to a reduction in average load factors (i.e. average number of passengers per vehicle), putting upward pressure on carbon emissions.
• The relative cost of shared mobility services falls as a result of a range of factors, including continuing advances in digital technologies such as improving connectivity and geospatial technologies. In addition, digital advances enable automated driving systems and the emergence of fully autonomous vehicles (AVs^▸ (Autonomous (self driving) Vehicle)) from the early 2030s in Rapid and Net Zero, significantly reducing the cost of shared-mobility services, especially in developed economies where average income levels are higher. The falling relative cost of autonomous sharedmobility services (robotaxis) leads to a shift away from private-owned vehicles as well as buses.
• The vast majority of robotaxis are electric in all three scenarios. This reflects the local air quality benefits and lower running costs of electric cars relative to traditional (internal combustion engine). Electric robotaxis provide a significant cost advantage given the intensity of use - up to 9-times greater than private cars by 2050. The growing penetration of robotaxis, combined with their intensity of use, means that by 2035 they account for around 40% of passenger VKM powered by electricity in Rapid and Net Zero and around 20% in BAU. This share declines in the final 10-years or so of the Outlook in Rapid and Net Zero as the share of private ownership of electric cars increases.
• The potential for robotaxis to help decarbonize road transportation by increasing the share of passenger car VKM powered by electricity means they are supported by government policies, such as higher road pricing and congestion charges for private vehicles, particularly in Rapid and Net Zero. The importance of robotaxis is also supported in Net Zero by a shift in societal attitudes towards a sharing economy.

The text only refers to rail once:

In Net Zero, the growth in air travel by 2050 is around 10% lower than in BAU, reflecting in part a shift in societal preferences to use high-speed rail as an alternative to air travel in China and much of the OECD.

There's plenty more that others may choose to highlight. The document is here: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2020.pdf

[IndustryInsider]

Positive news on the likelihood of the virus being spread via surfaces on public transport:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/no-evidence-covid-tube-bus-tfl-b43382.html

[IndustryInsider]

Given the current situation, I'd happily accept a three year pay freeze if it helps the industry survive the crisis largely unscathed.

Can I come with you when you suggest it to the RMT^▸ (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers)?

AIUI^▸ (as I understand it) It's looking very likely that there will indeed be a pay freeze for GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) managers and staff earning more than £25k for 2021, and for those who had pending awards for 2020 to be negotiated (such as drivers).  A small increase for those on less than £25k is likely.  Seems the unions are understanding (if not exactly happy) with that, and I've heard few complaints from staff.

[Electric train]

Given the current situation, I'd happily accept a three year pay freeze if it helps the industry survive the crisis largely unscathed.

Can I come with you when you suggest it to the RMT^▸ (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers)?

AIUI^▸ (as I understand it) It's looking very likely that there will indeed be a pay freeze for GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) managers and staff earning more than £25k for 2021, and for those who had pending awards for 2020 to be negotiated (such as drivers).  A small increase for those on less than £25k is likely.  Seems the unions are understanding (if not exactly happy) with that, and I've heard few complaints from staff.

This applies to the whole industry and not GWR.  It is a directive from the Treasury and DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)

[CyclingSid]

The following posted on the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) web site on 25th Feb might be of interest:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-travel-behaviour-during-the-lockdown