Robin writes "This level of detail is exactly the sort of thing you DON'T want to get involved with now, because urgent action needs to be taken" but yet I'm not sure that I have applied any level of detail. A dozen broad questions to set the scene, a few ideas (such as the appendix below) a handful of examples to see what it does to existing fares / likely payments by individuals and likely traffic flows, and go for it. Could be done over a few days work, changes from the January fare change date. An admission that "this may bring anomalies until [test end date]" and a leaving of the old fares in place / valid as an alternative until December 2021, with a review and decision on keeping the trial changes based on evidence gathered by the end of August 2021.
As appears to be so often the case when I post here, and especially the longer posts, I think about a lot of things that don?t actually get in to my text, so I have to come back and explain them.
I was referring specifically to now. Pandemic now. The big change in travelling habits and demand now. I am not saying that looking at all aspects is unimportant, and I?m not trying to undermine whatever Keith Williams is or isn?t doing. What I am saying is that there is no point whatsoever in going into the finer points of detail at this stage, because demand profiles have changed and at the moment we do not know if they will change back long term or settle at a new normal. And if it does settle at a new normal we don?t yet know what that new normal will be.
Let us take two steps back. One from the existing fare structure and another back in history when this mess really started ? the end of the flat rate per mile charging system in 1965 and a move to market pricing or charging what the market will bear. Let us also take one example already quoted by Graham, the range of fares available between Chippenham and Paddington.
The last flat mileage rate was,
IIRC▸ , 3d per mile second class. First class was 50% extra. A season ticket, once again IIRC, gave a 10% discount on the cost of five returns between the two points. There were anomalies even then with discounted tickets (cheap day returns etc) but that is another matter in itself and one I won?t discuss here now. Season tickets then were not the same as season tickets now because, away from London and the South East, people tended to live much closer to their places of work. There would have been plenty of seasons issued between Chippenham and Bath, but I rather doubt that any Chippenham to London seasons were sold at all until the mid-1970s.
So this pickle cannot really be laid at the door of present day
TOCs▸ although they have probably exacerbated the situation ? it really stems from the government of Harold Wilson and the long-dead senior mandarins of the time in 222 Marylebone Road.
So, to Graham?s example of
CPM» -
PAD» with a couple of extra columns added:
Chippenham to Paddington 94 miles 188 miles return
Type Standard Miles ppm
Peak ?183.60 188 ?0.977
Off peak ?76.70 188 ?0.408
Super
OP▸ ?55.90 188 ?0.297
Season ?290.20 940 ?0.309
Type First Miles ppm
Peak ?276.60 188 ?1.471
Off peak ?163.50 188 ?0.870
Super OP n/a n/a n/a
Season ?557.50 940 ?0.593
Just a cursory glance at the table will show how out of kilter the whole thing is. The peak rates can only really be described as penal, and presumably they are set specifically to reduce demand. That there isn?t any demand to speak of in the pandemic needs factoring in.
To me the most interesting thing that jumps out of the table is that the price per mile of a 7-day season when used for 5 days and a super off peak return are virtually identical. This gets me thinking along new lines
1. Although it might be unpalatable to say so, is the season ticket under priced?
2. If the TOC is turning a profit out of carting people to and from London at a price of 30 pence per mile then everything else is over priced
3. The proportions of first and standard class ticket sales will also have a bearing.
This then leads me to the fundamental question, and one which will not be answered by people like Graham and me in armchairs playing with spreadsheets and data! Whether the man or woman in the street thinks that rail fares are too high or too low or Goldilocks-esque is not the issue that needs to be addressed. How much does it cost to run any given train from point A to point B, and how much income will be needed to turn a profit on running that train?
Of course, at the moment with the government essentially running the railways during the pandemic different rules will apply. In the short term railways can and probably have to run at a loss to enable them to run at all in these days of reduced demand, and this is why now is not the time to ask such questions as should passengers pay more for a diesel service than an electric one (not that they have much choice in the matter anyway...). Action for the short term only is needed at the moment, and today?s limited research suggests that pricing a two or three day season from a 7=day base that appears on the face of it to be too low anyway is not going to please anybody!
When I started writing this post I thought I had the answer, although I have found supporting evidence for one of my stances. And that is I am now more than ever glad my name is not Keith Williams
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