Patterns of returning passengers?

[whole diary]

[ellendune]

A packed train with perhaps 60% on annual seasons (30% discount to full fare at peak rates?) will be filling the operators bank account regularly.

I suggest you look at the wide disparity here!.  The Season Tickets were always regulated tickets, outside the old Network South East Area the full fare was not! as a result season ticket holders from Swindon are paying something like the super off peak fare!  More like 60% or 70% discount! So when a shoulder of peak train was nearly full of full fare travellers (most days) with a few season ticket holders who was filling the operators bank account regularly?

[ellendune]

So Nationwide has consulted its staff and is giving them the option of working from home.  On the basis of the consultation they are closing three of its office buildings in Swindon.

Swindon Advertiser

Business Insider

Probably not too many commute by rail given where the office is, but if this is a pattern....

[Timmer]

So Nationwide has consulted its staff and is giving them the option of working from home.  On the basis of the consultation they are closing three of its office buildings in Swindon.

Swindon Advertiser

Business Insider

Probably not too many commute by rail given where the office is, but if this is a pattern....

This will be the first of many I’m sure.

Been working from home for a year now with only occasional visits to the office. Already decided that this is the way ahead for me with a view to making this a permanent move later in the year once things return to the new normal. Some of my colleagues want the same whilst others want to return to the office so it’s not for everyone.

[Bmblbzzz]

We may be lucky and end up with a more even spread of passengers and overall numbers not declining too much, but will the quid pro quo be shorter off-peak periods or reduced differentials between peak and off-peak fares? Flexibility on working hours is going to be a challenge for employers too. There has been a recognition of the value of working in the office for supervision. training and mentoring and team working. This gets more difficult if the team is not on site at about the same time.

Perhaps less peak v off-peak difference will be part of the "simpler fare structure" we are frequently promised?

Cities may have relied on those people - perhaps the railways did not??

But the whole raison d'etre of public transport is to serve places and the people who live and work there!

Agree with this. Transport serves people and the places they go to, not people serving transport. Though it's also true that the existence of good transport links encourages people and businesses to settle in a certain place and thus shapes travel patterns.

_{Edit: Tweaked to clarify who was quoted - Red Squirrel}

[GBM]

So Nationwide has consulted its staff and is giving them the option of working from home.  On the basis of the consultation they are closing three of its office buildings in Swindon.

Probably not too many commute by rail given where the office is, but if this is a pattern....

Many financial institutions are trying to shut down high street branches whenever possible.  Banks encouraging customers queuing to go online and producing evidence that proves customers are not going in to branches (they are but results not showing this). Similar to FGW^▸ (First Great Western) showing in surveys passengers don't want a buffet!

[ellendune]

So Nationwide has consulted its staff and is giving them the option of working from home.  On the basis of the consultation they are closing three of its office buildings in Swindon.

Probably not too many commute by rail given where the office is, but if this is a pattern....

Many financial institutions are trying to shut down high street branches whenever possible.  Banks encouraging customers queuing to go online and producing evidence that proves customers are not going in to branches (they are but results not showing this). Similar to FGW^▸ (First Great Western) showing in surveys passengers don't want a buffet!

The Nationwide story was not about shutting branches. These are back offices.

[grahame]

From The Independent

THIS IS THE AGE OF THE CAR: ROAD USE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS TRAVELLERS SHUN TRAINS
Motoring rising fast after stay at home rule lifted, but trains remain a quarter full

[Bmblbzzz]

From The Independent

THIS IS THE AGE OF THE CAR: ROAD USE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS TRAVELLERS SHUN TRAINS
Motoring rising fast after stay at home rule lifted, but trains remain a quarter full

Not sure whether it's appropriate or inappropriate that that opens for me with an advert for a well known brand of four-lettered German motor car.

[TaplowGreen]

From The Independent

THIS IS THE AGE OF THE CAR: ROAD USE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS TRAVELLERS SHUN TRAINS
Motoring rising fast after stay at home rule lifted, but trains remain a quarter full

Seems to suggest that demand for rail is being squeezed between the huge and sustained rise in remote working, and those who are returning to commuting, choosing to do so by car - I guess that's understandable in the short term given that with the virus still around you are safer alone in a car than on public transport (and you don't have to wear a mask), but it'll be interesting to see if it continues once everyone has been jabbed and public transport is perceived as being "safe" again.

[IndustryInsider]

I expect that ratio will change in favour of rail a little from next week when the retail sector reopens as employees in that sector are more likely to be reliant on public transport.

[Sulis John]

Although it is certainly worrying that rail numbers seem to be slow in picking up, it is perhaps hardly surprising at this stage. As yet we are still being told to "minimise journeys" and (whether this is true or not) that train travel should be restricted to travel to essential work or other authorised reasons - so we're still being discouraged from making leisure trips and forbidden from making ones that involve staying anywhere overnight. Even if we decide to ignore that, there's little reason to travel much at the moment, especially with the weather offering little temptation to outdoor activity at present. The school-run is back (or will be again after the Easter break) as is, to judge by their car parks, the supermarket trip, but these tend to be car based activities. Meanwhile, the massive drop-off in rush-hour traffic (and, for some, the sudden availability of free spaces in the office car-park) will have removed many of the disincentives to drive for those who are going into work. Once the length of the drive starts to increase again and the chance of being able to park easily and cheaply starts to decrease, things may change. It'll certainly be interesting to see how all the changes to central Bristol traffic routing that have been introduced / completed over the last 12 months cope with a "real" rush hour - even if that is still quite a long way off!

[CyclingSid]

Simon Calder's take on the subject
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/rail-car-passenger-travel-uk-b1828794.html

[grahame]

... Even if we decide to ignore that, there's little reason to travel much at the moment, especially with the weather offering little temptation to outdoor activity at present. ...

Indeed - with that and the other things you list, we remain very much in the "holding area" at the start of a new adventure and we really don't know what we'll find when we get out of that area.   Preparations, yes; guesses, yes, but no certainty and still much we'll need to find out as we go on along.

[TaplowGreen]

The railways have been able to take their customers for granted for a long time and have treated them accordingly, often with little short of contempt.

Now they are going to have to work at it in order to justify the "astronomical sums" as Calder puts it, being spent on them .

It'll be interesting to see the shift this creates, both culturally and in terms of service - will it reflect the needs of the customer more? It will probably need to.........and it will definitely need to in order to get people out of cars.

Yes, the Government has a part to play in terms of incentives/disincentives, but in terms of bailing the railways out in the current circumstances they have played that part pretty well. The railways cannot take the place of the road network, it is silly to pretend otherwise - they complement it, and where practical can certainly take some of the weight off it. Identifying these opportunities and maximising them will be pivotal.

I will be interested to see what the railways themselves do to make themselves more of an attractive and practical option, especially for leisure travellers which is the real opportunity given the huge hole in business revenue created by remote working.

Calder's final point is somewhat overstated - this is one aspect of caring for/saving the environment, but it certainly isn't the only show in town.

[Bmblbzzz]

It'll certainly be interesting to see how all the changes to central Bristol traffic routing that have been introduced / completed over the last 12 months cope with a "real" rush hour - even if that is still quite a long way off!

Car usage is almost at 2019 levels already (that's nationally, I'm sure there's local variation but I don't have figures for Bristol specifically). In some places after the first lockdown it reached 125% of the average for that time of year. So it would seem the changes are already coping with what they were designed for; the question might be will they cope with 2030 levels in 2021? Another thing is the nature of the rush hour will have changed; even if comparable numbers of people go back to work, it's likely hours will be more spread out.

The real question though is about the disparity between the usage levels of private and public transport.