Patterns of returning passengers?

[whole diary]

[grahame]

From the Confederation of Passenger Transport

Greater congestion will increase journey times across the bus network, driving up running costs and pushing down passenger numbers. This is why we need to put bus travel at the heart of transport planning and encourage more people onto the bus #betterwithbus

Around 84% of GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) trains are running ... and each with a capacity of around 25% of normal - so that's an overall network capacity of around 21%. Reading off the graph about, it would appear that rail travel is somewhere between 15% and 10% of pre-covid levels so that trains are relatively quiet still - even measured against changed capacity.

Of course it's not "that simple":
Distribution by lines
Distribution by country (England, Scotland, Wales)
Distribution by time of day
Distribution by individual services
Distribution between individuals and bubble groups

Noted from my Heart of Wessex post and comparison to Heart of Wales ... you see a massive step up in terms of loading %age in one case and a step down, I suspect, to virtual zero in the other.

... you see the overloading on new percentages predominantly on trains based in Bristol - Cardiff to Portsmouth, Weymouth and Weston-super-mare, with some London to West of England services also busy

... you see good movement away from the morning peak with people being told to travel at quieter times.  The busiest time of day remains the evening peak, but even there the traffic levels as a proportion of the traffic through the whole day are reduced.   And the with the peaks knocked off, that traffic proportion has been moved to during the day.

If these pattern changes are maitained for the future, perhaps we will see a rebalance of services towards more regional services, and perhaps the changes will make it more econimic to run the railways as there will be less need for strengthened trains for just one service at each end of the day.

I note a post elsewhere talking about fare changes next month.  Interesting.  With the morning peak eliminate at present, should that early time remain peak?  Should railcards that click in at 09:30 or 10:00 really do so?  Has anyone been saying "Look - I've been working from home, but I'll come in to catch up.  I will do what the governemnt wants and travel away from the peak and that will also make a big saving" ...
   Melksham to Paddington - Anytime (period) return, out on 05:33 or 07:53 - £182.00
   Melksham to Paddington - Out on 10:02, back on any train - £124.50 (2 x singles)
   Melksham to Paddington - Out on 10:02, back on 16:32 - £76.70 (Off peak return)
   Melksham to Paddington - Out on 10:02, back on last train - £57.60 (Super off peak return)
   or think
   Melksham to Paddington - Week season - £290.20
which is the logical choice for anyone doing a full week, or close to it ... much rarer these days

[FarWestJohn]

I travelled from Falmouth to Penzance yesterday and bought my ticket at Truro. But I do not think many of the people who got on and off at intermediate stations had a ticket. The locals reckon the Falmouth branch is free if you are not going through the Truro barriers and trains are quite busy. There are no on train ticket checks or at Penzance so I do not understand how they know how many people are travelling if they are doing it from tickets sold?

[trainbuff]

There are separate ways to add passenger counts and send them off. This still gives a factual picture even if some of the counts are sensibly estimated

[CMRail]

Is there a possibility that people are taking advantage of the fact that on-board of ticket examinations have been suspended?

And on that matter - are they still suspended or has revenue protection continued? As soon as it does the better.

[grahame]

Is there a possibility that people are taking advantage of the fact that on-board of ticket examinations have been suspended?

And on that matter - are they still suspended or has revenue protection continued? As soon as it does the better.

Welcome back (noting your other post) ... It's been a very different time.

Priority has been given to safety - however the risk is reducing, and the revenue collectable on slightly busier trains slightly higher amount.

Individual train stats are not based on ticket sales.  Without all trains being all reservation and no last minute catching a later one, loading has to be done by staff count estimate, or weighing the passengers.

[stuving]

Not exactly core Great Western Railway (GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway)) territory, but I can give some observations from Wokingham. Road traffic had picked up a little by a month ago, but since then the route avoiding the level crossing has been closed for gas main works under the Guildford line bridge. That carries more traffic, which has been coming our way (and a lot of emergency vehicles). But that's now reopened, so we'll see what we're left with later this week.

SWR^» (South Western Railway - about) service levels barely dropped and have now returned to normal. Thw GWR North Downs service is still halved to 1 Train Per Hour (TPH^▸ (trains per hour)) during the day with a few extras in the peak. My usual usage would be to go to Reading before or after lunch, and I'd not expect to see many passengers then. Coming home could get busy for schools and for GWR services around 5-6 pm, but the longer SWR trains less so.

Obviously no schools now, and a visual check suggests the evening peak is still well below normal but it's hard to put a number on that. For London commuters, the number of cars parked through the day must be a reasonable proxy. And that's been low - very low. The car park holds 531, and its new bit on stilts added 186. Assuming that number was both necessary and sufficient, it must have been running at 400-500 BV.

Throughout the lockdown I only once counted double figures, and after work was made respectable again that went up only once to over 20. Then at the start of August it went up to just under 30 each day, before dropping back to under 20 this week. So that's, what, 3%? Mostly, I think that says that people who live round here have jobs that can be done from home quite well. And they have been.


Edit: VickiS - Clarifying acronyms

[CyclingSid]

Latest national figures use of transport modes in Great Britain:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/908785/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods
The data on this link is updated on a regular basis. Not sure why there is no cycling data for the latest week.

[grahame]

For London commuters, the number of cars parked through the day must be a reasonable proxy. And that's been low - very low.

I question your assertion.  I wonder if those who drive to the station are returning to the train far slower than those who get to the station on foot or by bicycle - simply because they have the option of making the whole journey in their car, and have been frightened off by the messages on the use of public transport.  Those who have no such private vehicle option for the major miles of their journey have had to try / revert to the train.

Anecdotal evidence (my own eyes, small sample, not really looking at this shift) at Melksham suggests a significant passenger volume, but mostly walking, cycling or being dropped off / picked up.  There is, though a complicating factor at Melksham in that car parking for rail users was free prior to the pandemic, but is only free for up to 30 minutes now.

[stuving]

For London commuters, the number of cars parked through the day must be a reasonable proxy. And that's been low - very low.

I question your assertion.  I wonder if those who drive to the station are returning to the train far slower than those who get to the station on foot or by bicycle - simply because they have the option of making the whole journey in their car, and have been frightened off by the messages on the use of public transport.  Those who have no such private vehicle option for the major miles of their journey have had to try / revert to the train.

Anecdotal evidence (my own eyes, small sample, not really looking at this shift) at Melksham suggests a significant passenger volume, but mostly walking, cycling or being dropped off / picked up.  There is, though a complicating factor at Melksham in that car parking for rail users was free prior to the pandemic, but is only free for up to 30 minutes now.

What you say is true, except that those who have a sensible car commuting distance would not pay the £8.60 per day or £1159 annually for the car park. Anyone going to Reading, or changing there for short distances, would go by car all the way. So while there may be a few commuting by bishop's or knight's moves other than into London, I still think the bulk of those paying the extra (and leaving their car unavailable and at risk) are going into London. But yes, that is a supposition.

[bobm]

As has been reported the morning rush hour has certainly not returned.  Apparently the peak, at least on GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway), is currently between 10 and 11am no doubt driven by day trips.

It was definitely noticeable how quiet Paddington was at 7.30am midweek last week.

[stuving]

For London commuters, the number of cars parked through the day must be a reasonable proxy. And that's been low - very low. The car park holds 531, and its new bit on stilts added 186. Assuming that number was both necessary and sufficient, it must have been running at 400-500 BV.

Throughout the lockdown I only once counted double figures, and after work was made respectable again that went up only once to over 20. Then at the start of August it went up to just under 30 each day, before dropping back to under 20 this week. So that's, what, 3%? Mostly, I think that says that people who live round here have jobs that can be done from home quite well. And they have been.

Following on from the above, numbers rose slowly through August, and I expected a big rise with the return to work and school of September 8th. That actually happened rather later, and irregularly, reaching 40 on a couple of days before 20th.

Then I started keeping a note of the number of cars in the car park (both bits together) on my daily walks. However, I didn't transfer those into a table here until recently, finishing today. There are gaps in the record (mostly when it was cold or wet!). That table is the next post.

[stuving]

Number of cars in the Wokingham Station car parks (capacity 531), seen at some time during 10-4.

W/S	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Notes
21/9	29	42~	42~	40	35	"stay at home" advice from Thursday
28/9	23	40	40	53~	-
5/10	23	-	43	45	37
12/10	31	29	39	46	41
19/10	37	29	-	36	26
26/10	17	22	30	37	45	Half term
2/11	23	39	27	19	18	"Lockdown 2" from Thursday
9/11	17	18	19	27	15
16/11	27	26	28	27	21
23/11	15	16	15	17	19
30/11	19	19	18	-	23
7/12	19	29	41	43	21
14/12	26	24	25	-	27
21/12	17	-	7	3	-	didn't look Xmas week
4/1/21	14	8	7	-	-	"Lockdown 3" from Tuesday
11/1	7	8	8	-	-
18/1	11	11	-	10	15
25/1	12	14	16	12	12
1/2	13	14	14	19	12
8/2	-	-	-	-	-	too cold all week!
15/2	10	16	-	16	12
22/2	15	11	12	16	9
1/3	14	13*	9*	14*	9*	*not counting Tighe's vans, but maybe a few workers' cars
8/3	17*	21*	21*	17*	19*	back-to-school week
15/3	15*	12*	9*	11*	18

~ approx.
updated 21/3

[grahame]

An update from The Guardian on public transport loadings over the past year (lots of graphs) and asking the question "Mind the gaps: will we go back to public transport after Covid?"

When lockdown emptied the UK^▸ (United Kingdom)’s trains and buses, their operators’ revenues collapsed. Now home working and cycling could become a permanent threat to their finances

A year ago, with the first coronavirus lockdown looming, passengers were warned to stay away from public transport. Now many are wondering whether that message can ever be reversed.

City centres in particular have been affected by the switch of huge numbers of office staff to working from home. This development threatens to permanently upend the model that has sustained the private rail system, and the coffers of cities that relied on train fare income.

But actually, commuter traffic all in a couple of hours and in one direction was very expensive to provide for as it meant that resource had to be provided that was only needed at those peaks ... furthermore, on many journeys season tickets were so much lower cost than ordinary fares that this income really didn't even approach meeting the cost of the extra provision.  Cities may have relied on those people - perhaps the railways did not??

[Jamsdad]

Looking at recent estate agent data for Cornwall there has been a surge of people  relocating to Cornwall. Many, it would appear, are going to home work, and maybe just go to the office once a week. As many are ex- London, there may be a significant surge in once-a-week business travel from Cornwall to London, and quite possibly an increase in sleeper traffic (not that we need that as it was , pre-covid already well subscribed ).

[eightonedee]

But actually, commuter traffic all in a couple of hours and in one direction was very expensive to provide for as it meant that resource had to be provided that was only needed at those peaks ... furthermore, on many journeys season tickets were so much lower cost than ordinary fares that this income really didn't even approach meeting the cost of the extra provision.  Cities may have relied on those people - perhaps the railways did not??

There's a lot to pick up on there Grahame......

commuter traffic all in a couple of hours and in one direction

While the peak might cover two hours, commuter traffic is spread over a longer period.

It was also far from all in one direction (even if predominantly) and certainly not all to the same destination. So for example on my (old?) regular beat (Goring to Guildford), you would start getting London bound early risers or those who had to hack over to Docklands before 6-30, and still be getting 9-30 starters who work in Reading close to the station catching trains to work after 9 am. On the North Downs leg of my journey there were two regular companions who started their journeys in Oxford and one in Swindon, and another who regularly did Oxford to Brighton. While the traffic the other way at Goring was much less, along the North Downs (and indeed the Waterloo-Reading line) there was considerable volume both ways, and on the occasions when closure of the North Downs line necessitated a Reading-Basingstoke-Woking-Guildford "zig-zag", the train from Reading to Basingstoke was busy to full, too.

The evening rush hour was if anything more extended. It would start with early finishers (and there has been a growing proportion of employers happy to give staff the flexibility to start and finish early) and "clock watchers" catching the first departures after 5pm onwards. As someone who worked longish hours, I was regularly changing trains at Reading at 8 pm, and they were still busy with commuter traffic.

very expensive to provide for as it meant that resource had to be provided that was only needed at those peaks ... furthermore, on many journeys season tickets were so much lower cost than ordinary fares that this income really didn't even approach meeting the cost of the extra provision.

A packed train with perhaps 60% on annual seasons (30% discount to full fare at peak rates?) will be filling the operators bank account regularly. An off-peak train 20% full of passengers at off-peak fares, with probably a half using their concessionary railcards still needs staff, fuel etc, etc. I cannot see how the off-peak service can be anything other than subsidised by peak period commuter traffic. And the volume of London-Reading peak travellers must also have helped fund the longer distance trains they got on and off at Reading.

We may be lucky and end up with a more even spread of passengers and overall numbers not declining too much, but will the quid pro quo be shorter off-peak periods or reduced differentials between peak and off-peak fares? Flexibility on working hours is going to be a challenge for employers too. There has been a recognition of the value of working in the office for supervision. training and mentoring and team working. This gets more difficult if the team is not on site at about the same time.

Cities may have relied on those people - perhaps the railways did not??

But the whole raison d'etre of public transport is to serve places and the people who live and work there!