Planning for restoration of services

[whole diary]

[TonyK]

There appear to be two stuck records on this forum - lack of buffet facilities and opposition to HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))

I know, I know. HS2 will continue to look like a phenomenal white elephant until it opens, and the lack of buffet facilities will never go down well with anyone who can't manage a couple of hours without a decent three-course meal, and a sufficiency of port. Somehow, though, life will continue.

[IndustryInsider]

Basically not enough passengers and the railway needs subsidising for another 12  - 18 months. Total bailout could hit £5bn - £6bn and there are worries about ongoing support as passengers probably wont return in the same numbers.

Also says rail executives are worried about the long term future of the industry, and one industry figure said the current government measures were rushed and that the crisis had been worse than anticipated.

In other public transport news the governement are looking to find more money for the bus industry in addition to the £397m they have already been given.

There's no doubt about it, the rail industry is in big trouble.  Then again, so is a lot of industry, arguably bigger trouble is some respects, like other mass transit providers such as aviation and buses, as well as pretty much all of the hospitality and leisure sectors.

Despite what some try to say, the rail franchises operate at small margins of 3-5% generally.  It should be very clear to everyone that it will take years to recover passenger levels to what they were until mid-March.  Changes in working and business habits and people being more hesitant about using trains for leisure trips will impact on revenue by a significant amount.  That will be the case even if social distancing measures are able to be relaxed completely by the end of the year which seems unlikely.

The rail industry is in a better position than some because it is relatively easy to operate it through the public purse, as is happening now, and as such it is better protected.  However, that doesn't mean that line closures, service cuts and other such measures might be needed (including the cancellation of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), though there has been very little significant talk of that so far).  I hope, and expect, Government will have to think longer term and not go down that route, but a return to the franchising 'normal' won't be happening either. 

So, to continue as they are, all franchises will need to be re-negotiated and hefty subsidies provided for a long while.  Those subsidies should be able to be reduced over time, hopefully quite dramatically, but they will be essential.  If not, the whole industry will need to be taken back into public hands, or management contracts will need to be introduced everywhere - those options still need big subsidies, but may well be easier to swallow and easier to implement.

I honestly wouldn't like to guess what condition the industry will be in this time next year, or in five years time.  The same goes for the country and wider world.

[TaplowGreen]

There appear to be two stuck records on this forum - lack of buffet facilities and opposition to HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))

Given polling suggests that only 27% of the population support HS2, the song on that record would appear to be quite popular (although I get that those who stick to the pro narrative on this forum tend to listen to it with their hands over their ears).

Less concerned about buffets although I appreciate that there are those who do regret their passing - then again, buffets aren't costing the nation over £100,000,000,000 and rising............even with Broadgage's enthusiastic consumption, that's an awful lot of fillet steak and Port!!!  

[IndustryInsider]

There appear to be two stuck records on this forum - lack of buffet facilities and opposition to HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))

Given polling suggests that only 27% of the population support HS2, the song on that record would appear to be quite popular (although I get that those who stick to the pro narrative on this forum tend to listen to it with their hands over their ears).

Robin, you've left a door ajar again... 

[Robin Summerhill]

Could all this be simply resolved by just building a buffet instead, but somewhere near Brackley?

[grahame]

Could all this be simply resolved by just building a buffet instead, but somewhere near Brackley?

Many a wise word written in jest.  Were you thinking something like this?

All trains carrying passengers, not being Goods trains or trains to be sent express or for special purposes, and except trains not under the control of the Great Western Railway Company, which shall pass the Swindon Station either up or down, shall, save in case of emergency or unusual delay arising from accidents, stop there for refreshment of passengers for a reasonable period of about ten minutes.

[Surrey 455]

buffets aren't costing the nation over £100,000,000,000 and rising

a). How would you pronounce that number in words?
b). How would Priti Patel announce that number in words?
c). How would Diane Abbot announce that number in words?

 

[TonyK]

buffets aren't costing the nation over £100,000,000,000 and rising

a). How would you pronounce that number in words?
b). How would Priti Patel announce that number in words?
c). How would Diane Abbot announce that number in words?

 

a) A hundred billion, in terms of chlorinated chickens
b) Ten thousand crore, or a Pritti penny
c) Not fair. 63% of this country's population are good at maths. Diane is part of the other 79%.

Given polling suggests that only 27% of the population support HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), the song on that record would appear to be quite popular (although I get that those who stick to the pro narrative on this forum tend to listen to it with their hands over their ears).

"La, la, la, can't hear you..."

[Electric train]

Given polling suggests that only 27% of the population support HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)),

.......... and 70% have no opinion, have no concerns or even know about HS2

Which leaves about 3% who object

(Data source probably from the same place as TG)

Less concerned about buffets although I appreciate that there are those who do regret their passing - then again, buffets aren't costing the nation over £100,000,000,000 and rising............even with Broadgage's enthusiastic consumption, that's an awful lot of fillet steak and Port!!!  

Are you sure buffets have not cost the Nation £100,000,000,000 over the last 50 years, the railway companies BR^▸ (British Rail(ways)), RT, the ToC's often do not charge full commerial rents for buffet operators, indeed BR ran them at a loss.  So in essence buffets have had a state subsidy for well over 50 years.

It is easy to quote one big headline cost of a project, if we personally were to do that none of use would ever buy a house, a car; we budget the expense over many years or decades.

HS2 is not just about knocking a few minutes off of the journey time London to Birmingham it will take more than a hour off of the journey time to Glasgow, it will release capacity for more freight paths on the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) and paths for more local trains along not only the WCML.  HS2 will also operate fast freights.

HS2 will employ, train apprentices, sponsor graduate Engineers many thousands of people up and down the the country.

The option to enhance the WCML is not really viable, the last scheme in 2000 cost £9 billion even then a number of major schemes were descoped.

[ellendune]

The option to enhance the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) is not really viable, the last scheme in 2000 cost £9 billion even then a number of major schemes were descoped.

I think you write this off too soon.

The option of closing the WCML for two year to allow the work to be carried out at a more reasonable cost was never properly considered. This could be achieved by a programme of rail replacement buses on priority road routes cleared of all other traffic and for longer routes a fleet of aircraft flying from Heathrow to Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow and Edinburgh we could reduce the number of international flights to make the slots available. No one would mind.

And I am sure that all those 1,000's of people who live or who have businesses by the WCML in the towns and cities that it passes through would jump at the chance to relocate to allow the WCML to be widened. The scheme to widen the line from Rugby to Birmingham was obviously dropped too readily because of an unwarranted fear of opposition from these people. As for the costs involved I am sure they would be willing to donate their land in the public interest and eschew all compensation.