How do we take the lid back off?

[whole diary]

[ellendune]

I have yet to be convinced that test and trace will work in this country. We have been "promised" 100,000 tests per day by the end of the month. Other countries are doing 400,000 or 1,000,000 tests a day. Secondly contact tracing would require an army of people to do it by the traditional method, or a possible infringement of peoples privacy if done digitally. Contact tracing has traditionally been done by public health staff (who have been decimated since they were moved to local government) or primary care who almost certainly don't have the capacity.
Possibly more sensible thoughts can be found at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contact_tracing

Testing and contact tracing has to be an element of the solution I am afraid.  That is why there is pressure on government to come up with a road map as this requires it to address the very issues you raise in short order.  We know it is trying to address the testing issue and I am convinced it can get to 100,000 tests - though whether this is by the end of the month we will have to see. 

On contact tracing it seems to be placing its hopes in the app.  I hope it is also looking to build up the functions of public health staff. 40 years ago local authorities would have been able to redeploy staff from other functions to do this work, but administrative changes including contracting out and privitisation have reduced this capability. 

[GBM]

I am getting the feeling that the Government are not saying that 100,000 at the end of the month will be achieved; they're saying it's a target/aim point.
Listening to the press questions after the advisers talk really gets me very agitated, but I'm reading the Gov. are saying it's an aim - if we meet it, great; if we don't meet it, we'll keep on trying.
My agitation comes from the press questions. Minister has stated for weeks now they won't talk in public about unlocking us.  I totally agree with this.  There will be a 'trump-like' band who will take this as gospel and start gatherings.  That will spread.
Unlocking will be discussed at these briefings months (?) later, so the press really ought to stop asking when and how.
Apologies, rant over. 

[Celestial]

I'd agree that it serves little purpose to discuss the next steps in the exit strategy now.  PM on Radio 4 yesterday discussed the results of a poll that said that was huge support for the lockdown, and the public understands it's need and isn't half as interested in hearing the next steps now in the way that the media seem to think we are.

My main worry is that our lockdown has not been as rigorous as Italy and Spain to date, yet their deaths are proving very stubborn to fall.  (Italy's have been level now at between 550 and 600 for 9 days, using a 3 day moving average.) And we are still reporting around 4,500 positive tests a day, which might suggest our death rate per day based on new infections of around 600 in a couple of weeks.

So what do we do?  Keep things in lockdown just enough to keep hospitalisations within the capacity of the NHS and accept that we are going to see deaths of 500+ a day for several months?  And if not what?  And that's before you add in all the extra deaths above those reported by the daily figures, which based on ONS^» (Office for National Statistics - website) figures suggests the underlying increase in deaths is at least 50% higher.   

[Bmblbzzz]

I'm talking about releasing the lockdown, not introducing it. The idea is to release the damping effect of the lockdown at a time when infection rate is coming down. This means the rate will start to increase again, with a delay. Before the rate gets too high, lockdown is reimposed, so keeping cases at a level where, in theory at least, health services can cope. Repeat for as long as necessary. The idea being that cases are never too many at any one time but society/economy can function more 'normally' during the release periods. The problem is that if the phasing is set by what's happening in eg London, the damping effect of lockdown will be released when rates are still climbing in some other places, thus exacerbating the situation locally.

Surely the economic impact of successive shutting and opening is likely to be even more damaging to business than a longer shut-down or semi-shut down.  Sounds a bit like the way successive waves of low level water pollution kill of aquatic life as the fish are hit again while in a weakened state from the last exposure. 

I agree. For one thing, it makes planning impossible if there is the continual possibility, expectation even, of another lockdown, but no one knows quite when or for how long or in what way it will be implemented. And if closing schools for half a year and improvising GCSE* and A level results is an educational disruption, what will be the effect of closures every other month?

*My son's comment "I learnt those poems by heart and now what for?" to which I pointed out that he had at least enjoyed them (well, most of them).

[Marlburian]

The latest police guidelines (to which I've referred elsewhere in this Forum) seem to lift the lid a little  - and I'm still blinking very hard at some of them, even the one that might benefit me a lot, "People can drive to do a country walk but only if the walk is longer than the drive".

And one can "buy a small amount of a staple item or necessity (for example a newspaper, pet food, a loaf of bread or pint of milk)". Two days ago, I decided against buy just a newspaper AND some milk because it would have meant exchanging coins.

Oh, the irony! I've gone from wondering whether my walks in excess of an hour were antisocial to believing that some of the latest guidance makes a nonsense of being expected to Stay at Home.

Edit to clarify link - Grahame

[PhilWakely]

The latest police guidelines (to which I've referred elsewhere in this Forum) seem to lift the lid a little  - and I'm still blinking very hard at some of them, even the one that might benefit me a lot, "People can drive to do a country walk but only if the walk is longer than the drive".

And one can "buy a small amount of a staple item or necessity (for example a newspaper, pet food, a loaf of bread or pint of milk)". Two days ago, I decided against buy just a newspaper AND some milk because it would have meant exchanging coins.

Oh, the irony! I've gone from wondering whether my walks in excess of an hour were antisocial to believing that some of the latest guidance makes a nonsense of being expected to Stay at Home.

The latest police guidelines read almost like the original Sunday Trading Laws. IIRC^▸ (if I recall/remember/read correctly), you could by a top-shelf magazine, but you could not purchase a copy of The Bible.

The bit that stood out for me [on the latest police guidelines] relates to visiting a local DIY store. Apparently, you are allowed to buy a fence panel, but you cannot purchase paint - i.e. you can repair, but you cannot renew!

[Marlburian]

Leaving aside the pros and cons of buying such products at this time, I would be more at risk trying to install a fence panel  than painting it!

[Robin Summerhill]

The latest police guidelines read almost like the original Sunday Trading Laws. IIRC^▸ (if I recall/remember/read correctly), you could by a top-shelf magazine, but you could not purchase a copy of The Bible.

The bit that stood out for me [on the latest police guidelines] relates to visiting a local DIY store. Apparently, you are allowed to buy a fence panel, but you cannot purchase paint - i.e. you can repair, but you cannot renew!

But Our Glorious Leaders hve said that if it is on sale in a shop that is allowed to stay open, you can buy it.

Hands not knowing what the other is doing spring to mind, as does my old mother's favourite saying - "clear as mud"

[IndustryInsider]

I don't have a problem with that - it's quite clear.  As it says, 'The regulations specify maintenance and upkeep. This does not extend to renovation and improvements.' 

It would be unreasonable to ban repairs to property damage, but they are trying to prevent people from going DIY crazy for the sake of it.  That of course leads to many additional people piling into DIY shops to get the equipment and materials needed.

[MVR S&T]

See B&Q are reopening some stores, as are some car plants, and from Constrution news, thre is ashotage of plasterboard, being used for the Nightingale hospitals, also a shortage of bricks and morter, so some brickworks and other factorys are reopening.
Also the South Africans will be able to buy cigarettes from 1st May, but no alcohol so far.
We will have to see social distancing for many months yet, how railways get back to even som sort of break even situation is beyond me. Both the main UK^▸ (United Kingdom) network, heritage and smaller railways.

Happy St George's day too.

[Electric train]

Do not think that any increase in train services to the reported 80% will mean there will be 80% of the normal capacity as social distancing will need to be maintained both on trains and stations

[grahame]

Do not think that any increase in train services to the reported 80% will mean there will be 80% of the normal capacity as social distancing will need to be maintained both on trains and stations

Specific GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) inputs - http://www.passenger.chat/23306 - in the "Transport Scholars" area.  If you are not a member there (where we get into dispassionate detail on occasions) please message me, or like this post, and I can add you in.

[Lee]

France now appears to be aiming for gradual deconfinement from May 11. I found this interesting interview with the SNCF^▸ (Societe Nationale des Chemins de fer Francais - French National Railways) CEO^▸ (Chief Executive Officer). English translation below:

Rail traffic should resume gradually between deconfinement and the beginning of summer but passengers will have to wear masks, said Wednesday April 15, SNCF CEO Jean-Pierre Farandou.

SNCF CEO Jean-Pierre Farandou requests the obligation to wear masks for train passengers as soon as the containment is lifted. He specifies that his company will not be able to supply them but undertakes to put hydroalcoholic gel at the disposal of travelers in stations, at the exit of the platforms and in the toilets of TGV^▸ (Train a Grande Vitesse).

The obligation to wear masks would make it possible to lift on board trains rules of distancing which "seem very, very complicated to tackle", explained  Jean-Pierre Farandou, during a hearing in the Senate on April 15. "If we are required to put a meter or a meter and a half between each passenger, with 100% of trains, it carries only 20% of what we usually carry.  So it does not work!", Argues the CEO of SNCF.

Traffic will gradually resume after deconfinement

Another promise: the systematic and regular disinfection of the oars. Jean-Pierre Farandou first plans for the main lines  "perhaps, compared to the current offer, a doubling of the offer during the first weeks", which would make it pass from 6 to 7% to almost 15%. He hopes to run 20% of TGVs in late May, half in June and all in July. The recovery rate would even be faster for the TER, RER and Transiliens trains.

For TGVs, the equation is also economical for SNCF, since these unsubsidized trains are only profitable if the occupancy rate reaches 60%. The company currently does not sell more than one seat in two.

This "road map" could evolve according to health guidelines, a fortiori if certain regions were to be deconfigured after others, noted Jean-Pierre Farandou.

If this approach means that by the end of May, I have a viable train timetable to somewhere by the sea such as Saint Brieuc or Paimpol, a beach to walk along, and a flask of tea and a pack lunch in my backpack, then that will do for me for starters.

Just to let you know that my post-lockdown dream has now been fulfilled. I did get my viable timetable to Paimpol, I did get my beach to walk along, and I did eat the feast-like pack lunch provided by the missus.

I even got my long-craved McDonald's bonus for dinner, although this involved walking into the restaurant with a mask, cleansing my hands with gel, keeping the mask on while placing my order on the touchscreen and paying by contactless debit card, and keeping it on while sitting down at my table, through being served by my masked waitress, cleansing my hands with gel again, and only then taking it off to eat my food, then putting it straight back on after finishing and leaving straightaway was probably one of the most bizarre dining experiences ive ever encountered...

Oh, and yes I was the only customer at the time.