Crystal ball - will coronavirus effect our travel (public and private)?

[whole diary]

[grahame]

I am planning for any "silver lining" ... to be able to shift to far more home based and electronic activities including  book writing  , web site and software updating and much more.

If you are writing a book, may I be the first to offer to proof-read it for you?

No, I'm sorry - you can't be the first to offer. Lisa had already pleaded with me to be allowed to proof read it  .

[eightonedee]

Perhaps unsurprisingly - see-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896169

We are entering uncharted territory.

[stuving]

I've seen several comments on how little international coordination there is over handling this virus pandemic. And I'm not convinced each nation has much more of a plan - even the French, who generally do planning with more thoroughness than most. To be fair, any pre-prepared plan could only be vague and conditional until it came into contact with the enemy; hence we are seeing a lot of development of those outline plans on the fly.

But is there a European plan? Well, yes and no. There was a proposal to do something for a wider range of potential crises: "Twelve proposals for improving the European Union’s crisis response capability". This was written in 2006,  by a certain Michel Barnier (already an ex-commissioner) by request of the commission president. Since the question was "what can the commission do?", the answers are all pan-European approaches, from just managing information flows up to new agencies. As far as I can make out, most of the proposals led nowhere.

For pandemics, the proposal was that the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control should coordinate data and provide advice. The what? You, know, the ECDPC in Stockholm - yes? Well, you may find it a useful source of information - a bit like the WHO, but more local and less strident. For example, their Rapid Risk Assessment (in full, a 28-page report)

[TaplowGreen]

Train companies looking for a handout from the Government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896169

[TonyK]

Economic recovery will come in the shape of a lorry load of spaghetti. Trains will be needed again, and the chancellor might as well rip up his recent budget now in favour of a new one better aimed at sorting things out when the dust begins to clear. There will surely be some sort of concession to the TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company), as the government couldn't renationalise all at once. Services may well be cut temporarily, enabling many more barbecues to take place.

In the air transport sector, there will be even more panic, and not just because of the mounting piles of duty-free perfume that seem to be very low down on the panic buying lists. Schedules are shrinking, and rosters will be reworked hastily to try to keep pilots current.

We haven't heard about the effect on shipping yet, but there must be one. That could conceivably be the worst.

[CyclingSid]

A variant of Marlburian's comment; if I am going to get it I would prefer to do so in the next couple of week's rather than in a couple of month's time when things will be much more difficult. Not that I am going out looking for.

[Marlburian]

over-70s to be asked to stay at home
I would rather run the risk of catching it, rather  than spend the rest of my life at home.

……...and the risk of passing it on to others?

My likely preferred activities outside the house and garden for the foreseeable future:

drive an hour in the car; go for 7-8-9 hour walk in the countryside, seeing a dozen or so people and giving them a wide berth; drive back.

Big Shop at Waitrose 0730 one day a week (though I've just renewed my on-line membership so can use Home Delivery).  Lots of handwashing before, during and after.

pop into the occasional newsagent or small shop two or three times a week and petrol station once a month. Lots of handwashing before and after. (Depending on what sort of volunteer support is available.)


I don't think that exposes me, fitter than most of my age, to much hazard. I bet that young people will be taking more risks - unless there's a complete clampdown on restaurants, theatres clubs, etc.

[stuving]

Train companies looking for a handout from the Government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896169

Now a kind of reply from Grant Shapps saying what he obviously had to - from the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Coronavirus: Flexibility needed over train firms, says Shapps

The government will show flexibility over rail firms' franchise agreements during the coronavirus outbreak, the transport secretary has suggested.

Grant Shapps said he would be meeting rail bosses this week to determine how to "sustain" services amid falling passenger numbers.

He added that there would be no point running "ghost trains", but people would still need to travel.

The BBC understands some firms are in talks to renegotiate their contracts.

Such deals govern how many trains private train companies are obliged to run, as well as restricting how much they can charge for tickets.

Mr Shapps told BBC Radio 4's Today programme companies had seen a "big drop off" in passenger numbers of 18-20% last week.

"We're working with them all to see what it is we'd need to do to sustain them," he added.

"People still need to be able to travel to an extent, and some of that is actually about how many trains are put on a line at any one time and the rest of it."

Asked whether train companies could be freed from their franchise obligations, Mr Shapps replied: "It's quite clearly an exceptional international moment in time.

"We need to be flexible as a country to react to that, and I'll be driven by, amongst other things, the demand.

"There's no point running ghost trains any more than in running ghost planes, but those are conversations which are ongoing."

We'll have to wait and see what that means in terms of service levels in the future - I'm sure no-one, but no-one,  has any idea about that yet.

[IndustryInsider]

At a guess I would say there was a drop off of between a third and a half of passengers you might expect to see on various trains I saw today.  Very noticeably down on last week.  Should this situation continue for a while, as it looks like it will, then thinning of services on many routes and/or a reduction in carriages will be a likely, and sensible, way forward.

[nickswift99]

So we're expecting to see lots more 5 car IET^▸ (Intercity Express Train) sets out?

I'll get my coat...

[stuving]

So we're expecting to see lots more 5 car IET^▸ (Intercity Express Train) sets out?

I'll get my coat...

Maybe ... maybe not. What logic suggests (though we all know how much that'll be listened to) is a new definition of "overcrowding" - based on a maximum seat occupancy way below 50%.

[Bmblbzzz]

Some forum members might think this was an ideal time to use that newly available space to bring back the buffet car. 
Then again, that might be deemed an unnecessary risk...

[CyclingSid]

So what does the capacity of an IET^▸ (Intercity Express Train) carriage become with a 1.5 - 2 m spacing between passengers?

[Red Squirrel]

Expect an emergency timetable from 23rd March.

[ray951]

Expect an emergency timetable from 23rd March.

Judging by the train in to Oxford this morning there won't be anyone left to catch them.

And just looking at the long queue of taxis at Oxford this morning suggests to me that lots of people are going to lose their jobs and/or income; lets hope the government comes up with something quick.